PDC World Darts Championship final: Michael Smith v Peter Wright predictions, odds, betting tips, statistics, H2H record & Sky Sports TV start time
Our guide to the PDC's William Hill World Darts Championship final between Michael Smith and Peter Wright includes tournament statistics, head-to-head records, how they got here, betting tips plus TV details of when and where to watch.
After 15 days of pulsating darting drama featuring countless classic matches, shocks, comebacks, emerging stars and a record three nine-dart finishes, the Sid Waddell Trophy will be fittingly lifted by one of the two best players in the tournament.
Peter Wright's average of 100.66 has been bolstered by a stunning tally of 55 180s - including a record 24 in one match against Gary Anderson - while Michael Smith, who is remarkably averaging almost the same at 100.65, has hit 59 of them. Anderson's tournament record of 71 set in the 2017 edition is under real threat but that's just one of many sub plots ahead of the Ally Pally showpiece.
On top of all that they've each been involved in two 'match of the tournament' contenders, with Bully Boy defeating Jonny Clayton and Gerwyn Price in deciding sets and Snakebite overcoming Callan Rydz and Anderson in duels that have already been etched in the annals of darting time.
But will 31-year-old Smith finally realise his rich potential by winning his maiden major title with the biggest of the lot, or will Wright be crowned world champion for the second time in a career that goes from strength to strength at the age of 51? Either way, whoever comes out on top and pockets £500,000 will be a truly worthy winner.
Enough of the scene setting, here's a closer look at all the key stats and facts as well as the reasons behind by betting tips...
Darts betting tips: World Championship final
1pt Michael Smith (-2.5 sets) to beat Peter Wright at 12/5 (Boylesports)
1pt over 33.5 match 180s in the final at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
SL Special: Smith to win, over 33.5 match 180s and 6+ 100+ checkouts at 4/1 with Sky Bet
Michael Smith (11/10) v Peter Wright (8/11)
- PDC World Darts Championship final: Monday January 3
TV coverage & start time: Sky Sports Darts/Main Event (2000 GMT) - Format: Best of 13 sets. All sets best of five legs except the 13th, when either player will need to win by two clear legs until it reaches a sudden-death leg at 5-5.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
- Overall Head-to-Head: 12-23, 2 draws
Televised Head-to-Head: 3-13, 2 draw
World Championship H2H: 0-1 (3-4, third round 2014) - All Tournament Finals: 0-3 (TV: 0-2)
10-11 - 2020 Masters
8-11 - 2018 Melbourne Darts Masters
5-6 - 2017 UK Open qualifier - 2021 Meetings: 1-2 (TV: 0-2)
7-16 - World Matchplay QF (July)
6-2 - Hungarian Darts Trophy QF (September)
12-16 - Grand Slam of Darts SF (November)
The obvious takeaway from this section is how Peter Wright has bossed the rivalry with 23 victories overall from their 37 meetings, while he's won 13 of the 18 encounters in televised events, including this year's World Matchplay and Grand Slam of Darts.
The latter result must have felt particularly galling for Bully Boy as he watched Snakebite reel off eight successive legs from 12-8 down to win 16-12 but in truth he did very little wrong during one of the best spells of comeback darts you're ever likely to see.
Smith's last victory over Wright on TV was during the 2018 Premier League group stages en route to finishing runner-up to Michael van Gerwen in his first major final, but he's lost nine and drawn two of the last 11 since then, with the most agonising being at the 2020 Masters when he missed three title darts in a deciding leg.
That could well have opened up the floodgates in his career but, on the flip side, these five major final defeats - also including the 2019 World Championship, 2019 World Matchplay and the 2020 World Series Finals - have helped him address the phycological weaknesses in his game and he's evidently now a much more mentally strong player that can maximise his talent and work ethic.
Bully Boy also had a vastly inferior head-to-head record against James Wade (4-17) but this new version of himself had little problem putting that behind him en route to a highly-convincing victory.
2021 SEASON STATS
- 2021 Titles: 2-6 (TV: 0-2)
- Three-Dart Average: 96.49 – 97.59
- 180s per leg: 0.29 – 0.31
- Checkout percentage (Stage Events): 36.32% - 39.75%
- 100+ checkout per leg won: 10.77% - 11.9%
Although this year's World Championship statistics further down are now more relevant than what they've achieved across the whole season, it's perhaps worthy to note how Wright was the more prolific 180 hitter during 2021 and also boasts a marginally superior average and checkout percentage.
Snakebite added two more major titles to his career tally of six thanks to his imperious success at the World Matchplay and at the Players Championship Finals last month where he brilliantly held his nerve in a deciding leg against Ryan Searle - so he's definitely got the advantage of knowing how to get the job done when the pressure is at its highest.
2022 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP STATS
- Tournament Average: 100.65 - 100.66
100+ match averages: 3 - 2
Highest average: 106.32 (R2) - 104.38 (SF)
Lowest average: 97.42 (R3) - 92.19 (R2) - Tournament 180s (180s per leg): 59 (0.39) - 55 (0.40)
- Doubles hit (Checkout %): 88/185 (47.57%) - 79/198 (39.90%)
- Legs won/lost: 88/61 - 79/57
- 100+ checkouts (per leg won): 14 (0.16) - 9 (0.11)
- Highest checkout: 132 - 161
Well, the mind-blowing stats speak for themselves. Virtually nothing separates their respective overall averages and although Michael Smith posted the highest of the tournament with 106.32 against Ron Meulenkamp, you'd obviously have to give more credit to Peter Wright for managing the second best of 104.38 over 10 sets against Gary Anderson.
During that performance, he fired a record-breaking 24 maximums for a single World Championship match and he's now only four behind Bully Boy's total tally of 59, with a fractionally better 180 per leg ratio of 0.40 vs 0.39.
You'd expect Smith to weigh in with at least another 13 to break Anderson's tournament record of 71 set in the 2017 edition but it's certainly feasible that Wright ends up with more!
The biggest difference between the pair is the finishing, with Smith yet to drop below 40% in any of his five matches and Wright only managing to go above 40% on two occasions, including his victory over Anderson.
If their scoring power is so very similar once again, it could all boil down to whether the St Helens ace can keep his cool on the outer ring for the sixth successive match.
ROUTES TO THE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL
MICHAEL SMITH
- R2: 3-1 v Ron Meulenkamp
Set scores: 3-0, 3-1, 3-0
Average: 106.32
180s: 6 (0.6 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 110)
Checkout %: 75% (9/12) - R3: 4-2 v Willie O'Connor
Set scores: 1-3, 3-2, 3-1, 3-0, 2-3, 3-2
Average: 97.42
180s: 10 (0.38 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 4 (High: 132)
Checkout %: 40.54% (15/37) - R4: 4-3 v Jonny Clayton
Set scores: 2-3, 1-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-1, 1-3, 6-4
Average: 99.84
180s: 11 (0.31 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 121)
Checkout %: 45.24% (19/42) - QF: 5-4 v Gerwyn Price
Set scores: 2-3, 3-0, 2-3, 3-1, 1-3, 3-0, 2-3, 3-2, 3-1
Average: 101.94
180s: 16 (0.42 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 4 (High: 130)
Checkout %: 51.16% (22/42) - SF: 6-3 v James Wade
Set scores: 3-2, 3-1, 2-3, 3-2, 3-1, 3-0, 1-3, 2-3, 3-1
Average: 100.98
180s: 16 (0.41 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 3 (High: 130)
Checkout %: 45.1% (23/51)
Michael Smith laid down a serious marker at the very first opportunity as he thrashed Ron Meulenkamp for the loss of just one leg with a tournament high average of 106 and it says a lot that an impressive 97.42 during a hard-fought 4-2 triumph over the slower paced Willie O'Connor was his 'worst' performance so far.
Bully Boy demonstrated this all-new mental strength to come through absolute thrillers with player of the season Jonny Clayton and defending world champion Gerwyn Price in deciding sets and he'd be the first to admit that he'd have lost those matches in previous campaigns.
That also came to the fore against a much fresher James Wade, who held a vastly superior head-to-head record against him, because it would have been so easy for him to get dragged into a war of attrition and struggle to produce his A-game under the building expectations.
As it turned out, he came through that test with the minimum of fuss compared to what Peter Wright went through against Gary Anderson and maybe he'll have that little bit more mental freshness ahead of potentially the defining night of his career.
PETER WRIGHT
- R2: 3-0 v Ryan Meikle
Set scores: 3-2, 3-1, 3-0
Average: 92.19
180s: 1 (0.08 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 81)
Checkout %: 34.6% (9/26) - R3: 4-2 v Damon Heta
Set scores: 1-3, 2-3, 3-2, 3-1, 3-0, 3-0
Average: 102.15
180s: 6 (0.25 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 3 (High: 161)
Checkout %: 60% (15/25) - R4: 4-1 v Ryan Searle
Set scores: 3-1, 3-2, 1-3, 3-0, 3-1
Average: 98.91
180s: 7 (0.35 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 132)
Checkout %: 37.1% (13/35) - QF: 5-4 v Callan Rydz
Set scores: 0-3, 2-3, 3-1, 1-3, 3-1, 3-2, 1-3, 3-0, 4-2
Average: 99.75
180s: 17 (0.45 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 140)
Checkout %: 33.3% (20/60) - SF: 6-4 v Gary Anderson
Set scores: 3-1, 3-2, 3-1, 1-3, 1-3, 3-1, 1-3, 3-1, 1-3, 3-2
Average: 104.38
180s: 24 (0.57 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 138)
Checkout %: 42.3% (22/52)
Peter Wright began his campaign with a forgettably easy win over Ryan Meikle although he was in danger of an early exit when falling 2-0 down in sets against Damon Heta.
Alarm bells were ringing louder at 2-2 in the third set but he got his act together to pinch it 3-2 before turning on the style and winning nine of the next 10 legs as he eventually survived a scare with a 102 average.
A surprisingly easy 4-1 victory followed against Ryan Searle, who'd pushed him so hard in November's Players Championship Finals, before another star of the future in Callan Rydz gave him a ridiculous run for his money in an unforgettable quarter-final.
Wright was on the brink of falling 4-2 down but when Rydz missed a dart at tops in the deciding leg, Snakebite showed what champions are made of with a stunning D18-D20 combo to complete a 96 checkout that levelled the match.
The next two sets were shared before he pinched victory 4-2 in the decider, while you could argue his semi-final battle with Gary Anderson was even more dramatic as his fellow 51-year-old legend battled back from 3-0 down to push him to the brink of an 11th set.
Wright averaged his tournament best of 104.38 - helped by a record-breaking tally of 24 180s - and he pretty much needed to produce that kind of quality considering Anderson reminded everyone of his brilliance at the end of an otherwise disappointing season.
Snakebite has mesmerising levels in his locker, especially when up against world-class opposition, and he may need to go somewhere close to his ceiling against Smith.
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL PREDICTION AND BEST BETS
Back in June, Peter Wright was so confident he'd do the World Matchplay and World Championship double this year that he jokingly told fans to stick £1 or 50p on it. Anyone who listened would have got odds of around 80/1 at the time and will now have their feet up expecting yet another one of his predictions to come off.
When Snakebite finally retires, he might come after my job!
That said, I'm still clinging on to it for the time being having tipped up Michael Smith at 25/1 in my pre-tournament preview but, for the benefit of those coming into this preview needing a fresh final bet, I'm going to forget I did that.
All the statistical logic of what we've already discussed above suggests an extremely close final between two players operating at sublime levels and a ridiculous amount of 180s.
Not only is Gary Anderson's aforementioned tournament record of 71 maximums under threat, but you wouldn't be surprised if Smith and Peter Wright combined to break the ridiculous match record of 42 in just 44 legs, which was set in a 2017 final of which saw the Flying Scotsman hit 22 in a 7-3 defeat to Michael van Gerwen.
If both these players maintain their tournament 180s per leg ratios of around 0.4 then this record will go if we get to around 55 legs and possibly a lot less if Snakebite can go at 0.57 like he did against Anderson.
I'm not making this an official tip but I just want to let you know that Sky Bet have priced up the maximum record to fall (43+ 180s) at 6/1. The stats might make this total seem a lot easier than the herculean effort it will require from both players, so just be wary of that.
In terms of who will hit the most, I think that's harder to call than the actual match result and most bookies price them up at even money, with Paddy Power edging it to Wright (5/6).
I'd much rather have them working as a team to throw 33 or more which is fractionally odds against with the likes of Sky Bet and Betfred and that feels like it covers a close final of at least 11 sets.
However, I don't think we're going the distance tonight and, despite how devastating Wright can be in these pressure cooker situations, I really do feel it's Smith's time to finally become a major champion in the grandest of fashions.
Like he said in his post-match interview last night, he doesn't deserve it - he's just worked incredibly hard for it. Exactly like Snakebite did after all his setbacks in the past. There really isn't a more fitting legend for him to beat on the biggest stage of all.
I expect Smith to blast out of the blocks against a slightly more jaded Wright, who had the much later night of 10 intense sets of darts, and keep his legendary opponent at arm's reach with the aid of his new unflustered, focused mindset.
He's the marginal underdog anyway but I'm going even bolder to back him on the handicap at -2.5 sets which would need a 7-4 scoreline or better in his favour. In the last 10 editions, there's only been two finals closer than that (Anderson 7-6 Taylor and Anderson 7-5 Lewis) and the last of those came back in 2016.
SMITH v WRIGHT: CAREER HONOURS
- Senior Career PDC titles: 14-42
Televised PDC Titles/Finals: 1/9 - 11/30
Major Titles/Finals: 0/5 - 6/20 - PDC World Championship appearances: 11 - 13
PDC World Championship Best: Runner-up (2019) - Winner (2020)
As you'll see from their respective lists of televised finals below, Michael Smith has gone through a similar run of defeats that Peter Wright endured for a much longer period of time but after losing 15 of his first 20 televised finals, the floodgates opened after landing the biggest of them all against Michael van Gerwen.
You have to wonder if Bully Boy is about to experience the same change in fortunes.
Michael Smith's Televised PDC finals
- 2018 Premier League: LOST 4-11 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2018 Shanghai Darts Masters: WON 8-2 v Rob Cross
- 2018 Melbourne Darts Masters: LOST 8-11 v Peter Wright
- 2018 World Series of Darts Finals: LOST 10-11 v James Wade
- 2019 World Championship: LOST 3-7 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2019 US Darts Masters: LOST 4-8 v Nathan Aspinall
- 2019 World Matchplay: LOST 13-18 v Rob Cross
- 2020 Masters: LOST 10-11 v Peter Wright
- 2020 World Cup of Darts: LOST 0-3 v Wales
Peter Wright's Televised PDC finals
- 2014 World Darts Championship: LOST 4-7 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2014 Dubai Darts Masters: LOST 7-11 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2015 UK Open: LOST 5-11 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2015 World Cup of Darts: LOST 2-3 v England
- 2015 Japan Darts Masters: LOST 7-8 v Phil Taylor
- 2015 World Series of Darts Finals: LOST 10-11 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2016 UK Open: LOST 4-11 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2016 World Series of Darts Finals: LOST 9-11 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2017 UK Open: WON 11-6 v Gerwyn Price
- 2017 Premier League: LOST 10-11 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2017 World Matchplay: LOST 8-18 v Phil Taylor
- 2017 Melbourne Darts Masters: LOST 8-11 v Phil Taylor
- 2017 German Darts Masters: WON 11-4 v Phil Taylor
- 2017 Grand Slam of Darts: LOST 12-16 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2018 World Cup of Darts: LOST 1-3 v Netherlands
- 2018 Melbourne Darts Masters: WON 11-8 v Michael Smith
- 2018 Champions League of Darts: LOST 4-11 v Gary Anderson
- 2018 World Grand Prix: LOST 2-5 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2019 World Cup of Darts: WON 3-1 v Ireland
- 2019 German Darts Masters: WON 8-6 v Gabriel Clemens
- 2019 Champions League of Darts: LOST 10-11 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2019 Grand Slam of Darts: LOST 6-16 v Gerwyn Price
- 2020 World Darts Championship: WON 7-3 v Michael van Gerwen
- 2020 Masters: WON 11-10 v Michael Smith
- 2020 European Championship: WON 11-4 v James Wade
- 2021 World Matchplay: WON 18-9 v Dimitri Van den Bergh
- 2021 World Cup of Darts: WON 3-1 v Austria
- 2021 Grand Slam of Darts: LOST 8-16 v Gerwyn Price
- 2021 Players Championship Finals: WON 11-10 v Ryan Searle
What time does Smith v Wright start and what TV channel is it on?
Coverage of the final between Michael Smith and Peter Wright starts at 8pm on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Darts, with the match expected to begin around 8.20pm.
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