Jonny Clayton and Nathan Aspinall (Picture: PDC)

World Matchplay darts final: Nathan Aspinall v Jonny Clayton predictions, betting tips, odds, statistics, H2H record & Sky Sports TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Sun July 23, 2023 · 2y ago

Nathan Aspinall and Jonny Clayton collide in Sunday night's 2023 Betfred World Matchplay final in Blackpool so check out our preview with statistics and tips.

Darts betting tips: World Matchplay final

2pt Jonny Clayton to win and Nathan Aspinall hit most 180s at 6/4 (William Hill)

1pt Aspinall to hit most 180s and both players to have 2+ 100+ checkouts at 13/8 (Sky Bet, William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Nathan Aspinall (11/10) v Jonny Clayton (4/6)

Venue: Winter Gardens, Blackpool
TV Coverage and start time: Sky Sports (2000 BST)
Format: Best of 35 legs. Must be won by two clear legs, with up to a maximum of five additional legs being played before the sixth additional leg is sudden-death

It was dubbed one of the most open renewals of the World Matchplay in many years when the world's top five players all crashed out before the quarter-final stage and tonight we will see a new name lift the Phil Taylor Trophy.

Here, we look at the tournament and seasonal statistics for both players, their head-to-head record, routes to get here and our final predictions and tips…

Aspinall v Clayton: Head-to-head record

Overall Head-to-Head: 5-6, 1 draw (TV: 2-3, 1 draw)
2023 Meetings: 1-2 (TV: 1-2)
6-1 - Premier League (May)
4-6 - Premier League (April)
3-6 - Premier League (Feb)

It's somewhat surprising how few times Nathan Aspinall and Jonny Clayton have met over the past few years, particularly in televised tournaments, so it's hardly the most compelling set of statistics ahead of tonight's showdown in Blackpool.

The Welshman is just ahead having won two of the three Premier League ties in 2023 although Aspinall does have the most recent memory of victory having thrashed Clayton on the final night of the regular season. That said, it was a dead rubber for Clayton who was already assured of a play-off spot.

2023 World Matchplay Statistics

Tournament Average
Aspinall: 97.71 (First nine: 108.79)
Clayton: 96.88 (First nine: 101.65)
100+ averages (highest & lowest match average)
Aspinall: 0 (99.33 v Dobey, 95.26 v Cullen)
Clayton: 1 (101.9 v De Sousa, 87.91 v Clemens)
Tournament 180s (180s per leg)
Aspinall: 37 (0.41)
Clayton: 18 (0.19)
Doubles hit (Checkout %)
Aspinall: 54/133 (41%)
Clayton: 54/102 (53%)
100+ checkouts (per leg won) & high checkout
Aspinall: 4 (0.07) & 151
Clayton: 10 (0.19) & 170

Well, you don't need to look at these figures too closely to realise the key behind Nathan Aspinall's success has been his heavy scoring and prolific 180 hitting while Jonny Clayton has relied more on his ruthless finishing.

Their overall averages are pretty similar although they'd be even closer had Clayton not been so below-par in his opening-round win over Gabriel Clemens when he surprisingly dipped as low as 88. He was very emotional that night due to the illness of his father - which he subsequently revealed several days later - but he's since used all the support of his family and friends to rediscover his high level of consistency.

The fact he's pinned over 53% of his doubles at this stage of the competition is phenomenal and that was bolstered by the fact he's gone over 60% in each of his last three matches - while his mammoth tally of 10 100+ checkouts further emphasises how dangerous he can be.

Although we can't expect him to be around the 50-60% mark for a third lengthy match in a row, we probably can't anticipate Aspinall to be firing in 180s at a rate of 0.40 per leg either considering his seasonal rate is more like 0.30 per leg. Even if these levels come back towards their mean, it'll still feel like a contest of heavy scoring versus clinical finishing.

WHO'S HIT MOST NINE-DART FINISHES?

Aspinall v Clayton: Routes to the final

Nathan Aspinall

R1: 10-7 v Ratajski
Average: 98.60
180s: 8
100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 151)
Checkout %: 48% (10/21)
R2: 11-5 v Noppert
Average: 98.07
180s: 8
100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 83)
Checkout %: 42% (11/26)
QF: 16-12 v Dobey
Average: 99.33
180s: 10
100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 128)
Checkout %: 44% (16/36)
SF: 17-9 v Cullen
Average: 95.26
180s: 1
100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 116)
Checkout %: 34% (17/50)

Nathan Aspinall has yet to be severely tested and should be feeling as fresh as anyone could possibly be at the end of a gruelling week of major darts.

His average range of 95.26 to 99.33 underlines the consistency of his scoring power and steady finishing throughout the tournament and it's almost as if he's suffocated his opponents and put them under too much pressure.

He showed no mercy to his two close pals in Chris Dobey and Joe Cullen so don't expect him to show any sympathy to Clayton's story as soon as the players are up on the oche and ready for action.

Jonny Clayton

R1: 10-8 v Clemens
Average: 87.91
180s: 4
100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 86)
Checkout %: 34% (10/29)
R2: 11-6 v Van den Bergh
Average: 101.9
180s: 3
100+ Checkouts: 3 (High: 170)
Checkout %: 58% (11/19)
QF: 16-12 v Searle
Average: 97.55
180s: 7
100+ Checkouts: 6 (High: 124)
Checkout %: 62% (16/26)
SF: 17-14 v Humphries
Average: 98.92
180s: 4
100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 100)
Checkout %: 61% (17/61)

Apart from his opening clash - which we've previously discussed - Jonny Clayton has shown nerves of steel and real composure on his doubles to reach his first World Matchplay final.

Together with his steady - albeit unspectacular - scoring, he's showing the relentless consistency that saw him recently set a Dart Connect record of 53 averages of 90+ in a row.

The way he despatched tournament favourite Luke Humphries 17-14 in the previous round from 11-9 down was particularly impressive while the six 100+ checkouts he fired against Ryan Searle was nothing short of astonishing.

TOP FIVE MAJOR DARTS CHAMPIONS

Aspinall v Clayton: 2023 season stats

2022 Titles: 0-1 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average
Aspinall: 96.45
Clayton: 96.81
180s per leg
Aspinall: 0.30
Clayton: 0.22
Checkout % (Stage events only)
Aspinall: 36.67%
Clayton: 41.48%
Match Treble % in all comps (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Aspinall: 19.75%
Clayton: 18.80%

These stats are obviously less relevant now than they were at the start of the week but you can see how they've generally matched their seasonal trends in Blackpool. Aspinall is the heavier scorer, Clayton is the more clinical finisher.

Aspinall v Clayton: Final prediction

Anyone who has been following our coverage this week will know I tipped Jonny Clayton at 20/1 to lift the Phil Taylor Trophy before a dart was thrown, so obviously I'm rooting for the Ferret.

It's been an emotional week for one of the nicest guys in the sport due to the illness of his father and there will be many darts fans hoping he can win the second biggest tournament in the sport for his family tonight.

This is the Welshman's sixth major individual final and he's hoping to win his fifth in a row having triumphed in all four that he contested back in 2021.

The Ferret's success that year is always traced back to his first taste of televised glory at the World Cup in November 2020 so maybe landing that tournament again with Gerwyn Price back in June is going to inspire a return to the winners' enclosure this year.

As for Nathan Aspinall, this is a fifth major career final but he's still waiting for his first triumph since the 2019 UK Open having finished runner-up in the 2020 Premier League, 2022 World Grand Prix and 2022 Grand Slam of Darts.

The Asp continually goes deep in majors and therefore matches Clayton for long format experience over the past few years so there will be plenty of darts fans favouring him due to his younger age and freshness. After all, there's not much else to split them on!

However, Clayton didn't look jaded under pressure against Humphries and his ice cool finishing will again be key tonight.

I'm going to add Aspinall to hit most 180s for obvious reasons and that outcome will also be included in my other selection which requires both players to contribute a pair of 100+ checkouts apiece. Obviously Clayton's case doesn't need building any more than it has and although Aspinall has only managed to hit two in one of his matches so far, you'd like to think there will be more than the 26 legs that featured in his semi-final with Joe Cullen.

Scoreline verdict: 15-18

What time does Aspinall v Clayton start and what TV channel is it on?

Coverage of the final between Michael van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price starts at 8.00pm on Sky Sports Main Event, with the match expected to begin around 8.30pm.