The William Hill World Darts Championship continues on Tuesday so here's Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.
There were meant to be six third-round matches take place over two sessions today, but now there is five after Michael van Gerwen was forced to withdraw from the tournament following a positive test for Covid-19. Here we preview the other five...
Darts betting tips: World Championship day 11
1pt Danny Noppert to beat Ryan Searle at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Joe Cullen to win, hit most 180s and the highest checkout at 13/10 (William Hill)
1pt Rob Cross (-1.5 sets) to beat Daryl Gurney at evens (General)
1pt Damon Heta to score over 6.5 180s at 6/5 (Paddy Power)
SL Acca: Cross (-1.5 sets) to win and Heta and Dobey to both to hit most 180s in their matches at 17/2 with Sky Bet
Tuesday December 28: Afternoon session
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1200 GMT)
- Third-round format: Best of seven sets
Steve Lennon (7/4) v Mervyn King (4/9)
- Overall Head-to-Head: 3-1 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Head-to-Head: 0-1 (TV: 0-0) - 2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 92.7 – 95.08
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.21 – 0.23
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 33.33% – 47.13%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 9.87% – 14.06%
Mervyn King's first-round encounter with Ryan Joyce was very much a game of two halves as he lost six of the first seven legs before winning the next nine in succession to claim a 3-2 victory - but he'll want to avoid making such a slow start again.
Instead, he'll be hoping to replicate a performance similar to what he achieved in the third round last year when blasting out of the blocks to beat Jose de Sousa 4-0 with a stunning average of 103.47, and anything close to that would be more than enough to deal with Steve Lennon.
The 55-year-old averaged 92.72 against Joyce, hit six 180s in just 16 legs and also pinned 50% of his doubles whereas Lennon managed to upset the odds against Krzysztof Ratajski to win 3-1 with an inferior average of 91.34 and a checkout percentage of just 22.5%.
The Irishman did manage six 180s to take his tournament tally to an impressive 13 in just 33 legs, which works out at almost 0.40 per leg - far higher than his seasonal average of 0.21. Both players are generally very similar performers when it comes to maximums so it would be rather dicey picking either to end up with the most in this showdown.
Overall, King is the superior player and can still produce higher levels on the big stage so I fancy him to come through this contest.
Prediction: 2-4
Ryan Searle (4/7) v Danny Noppert (11/8)
- Overall Head-to-Head: 0-5 (TV: 0-3)
2021 Head-to-Head: 0-2 (TV: 0-1) - 2021 Titles (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.96 – 96.51
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.25 – 0.27
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 32.76% – 44.23%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 12.66% – 11.8%
Ryan Searle has thrust himself firmly into the darting spotlight this year having won a title and finished runner-up in four other tournaments, including last month's televised Players Championship Finals against Peter Wright, so it's little surprise to see his name being widely tipped for a big run at the Ally Pally.
His statistics, results and confidence are all ascending on an upward curve but he could have got away with a lot less than a 92 average to see off William Borland in his opening match after the nine-dart hero struggled to produce anything like the form we saw from him against Bradley Brooks.
Heavy Metal can perform a lot better than that when he's put under proper pressure and that should come against the dangerous Danny Noppert, who is somewhat flying under the radar despite a decent season that just hasn't quite translated into final runs.
Statistically he's actually averaging higher than Searle this year - albeit very marginally - and also beat him 10-4 en route to the European Championship quarter-finals back in October when both players averaged 101.
Noppert's on-stage aura and performances have really grown this winter and further evidence of that came at the World Grand Prix when impressively - and comfortably - knocking out Michael van Gerwen, Vincent van der Voort and Ian White before running out of steam against Jonny Clayton.
Noppie didn't get going last time out in a rather lethargic 3-1 win over Jason Heaver, averaging 88.42, but expect him to significantly raise his game in this one and potentially spring a minor upset.
Prediction: 2-4
Joe Cullen (1/4) v Martijn Kleermaker (3/1)
- Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 2-2 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 1-0 (TV: 0-0) - 2021 Titles (TV): 2-0 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.87 – 91.41
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.32 – 0.19
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 37.5% – 23%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 10.6% – 10.25%
Joe Cullen was my tip to come through a second quarter of the draw which is now even more wide open than it was before the tournament began thanks to the shock exits of Dimitri Van den Bergh and Krzysztof Ratajski in round two - so I'm hardly going to change my opinion now.
Sure, the Rockstar was also in danger of being dumped out when trailing Jim Williams 2-1 but he stormed back to win six of the next seven legs and advance with a pretty impressive 96.96 average, while he also fired in eight 180s in just 17 legs of action.
That underlines why he's regarded as one of the most prolific maximum hitters on the circuit with a ratio of 0.32 per leg and I think we can expect him to outgun Martijn Kleermaker on that front as the Dutchman managed three in the same amount of legs during a 3-1 victory over Simon Whitlock in which he averaged less than 90.
He's not usually hot on the treble 20 bed, with a seasonal 180 per leg ratio of just 0.19 - so if you are going high on match 180s then don't assume Kleermaker will contribute a lot of them.
You can get 13/8 on Cullen hitting nine or more maximums but that will probably require Kleermaker winning a least a set or two to make the match long enough and my hunch is that he'll cruise through this encounter in style either 4-1 or even 4-0.
Instead I'm going for Cullen to bring up the Match Treble - which he's managed to do in 31% of his matches this season. Only Dirk van Duijvenbode, Jose de Sousa and Ryan Searle have achieved it more.
Prediction: 4-1
Evening session
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
- Third-Round Format: Best of seven sets
Rob Cross (8/15) v Daryl Gurney (6/4)
- Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 12-6, 1 draw (TV: 7-3, 1 draw)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 2-0 (TV: 0-0) - 2021 Titles (TV): 2-0 (1-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 96.52 – 94.6
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.23 – 0.28
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 39.36% – 37.5%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 10.6% – 9.13%
Rob Cross was handed a brutal draw this year and after coming through a clash of the former champions with Raymond van Barneveld, his path to the final gets even tougher tonight as he prepares to face an improving Daryl Gurney.
If it was a karaoke competition, I'd say Cross was guaranteed to go through even though I've never heard him sing.
That one person at the Christmas party who LOVES the karaoke a bit too much... 😅🤣 pic.twitter.com/cVZArQQ2Hq
— PDC Darts (@OfficialPDC) December 16, 2021
Voltage made a really slow start against Barney as he averaged less than 80 in the opening set but he raised his levels enough amidst a raucous atmosphere and showed the necessary battling qualities to win nine of the next 12 legs, while he ended the match with a creditable average of 90.38 and seven 180s.
The European champion, who has enjoyed a superb winter of getting his career back on a steep upward curve in terms of both results and performance, admitted the noise of the Barney Army was quite a shock to the system at first after so many behind closed doors events over the past couple of years but now he's got himself settled into the tournament, I really think he'll work his way through the gears tonight and show us why some leading pundits - including our very own Paul Nicholson - are backing him to go the distance.
He'll need to hit the ground running a lot quicker against Gurney, who put a poor year behind him with a string of morale-boosting performances at last month's Players Championship Finals and followed that up with an impressive 3-1 win over Ricky Evans, averaging 96 and firing in six 180s in 17 legs of darts.
That said, it has been almost two weeks since he was last on the oche so he's pretty much restarting his campaign from a much colder position compared to Cross, who played on that final night before the Christmas break.
Although SuperChin has a better 180 per leg stats than Voltage this year, the latter actually managed seven in 16 legs against Barney despite not being that close to his best so I'm cautious about dabbling with the maximums in this one.
Prediction: 4-2
Peter Wright (1/3) v Damon Heta (23/10)
- Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 3-1 (TV: 3-0)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 0-0 (TV: 0-0) - 2021 Titles (TV): 6-0 (2-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 97.59 – 96.12
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.31 – 0.3
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 39.75% – 35.61%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 11.9% – 12.52%
Peter Wright didn't have to get out of first gear to see off Ryan Meikle on the night made famous by William Borland's nine darter so this is where his tournament really begins.
Snakebite's average of 92.19 was plenty more than enough to deal with Meikle's 79.29 while he only fired in a single 180 in 12 legs and didn't bother the 100+ checkout counter at all, but expect all those stats to increase when pushed much harder by Damon Heta.
The dangerous Australian would have cruised to an eye-catching straight sets victory over Luke Woodhouse last time out had he not missed match darts in the third - but he responded promptly from that mishaps to wrap up the fourth 3-0 and end the match with an average of almost 95.
Heta not only boasts an extremely healthy seasonal average of 96 but he's also one of the most prolific 180 hitters on the circuit and only marginally behind Wright. Despite only managing three of them in 17 legs against Woodhouse - which was some way short of his seasonal ratio of 0.3 per leg - he did land 15 140s and six of those saw the last dart in hand fall agonisingly into the big 20.
Another day he'd have comfortably doubled his maximums and hopefully that will be against Wright because I'm backing him to manage over 6.5 on his own, which is more than achievable should we see around six sets of darts.
As for the winner of the match, I do expect the 2020 world champion to come through it, but he won't have it all his own way.
Prediction: 4-2
****MVG HAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP DUE TO TESTING POSITIVE FOR COVID-19***
Michael van Gerwen (1/5) v Chris Dobey (7/2)
- Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 9-0 (TV: 1-0)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 2-0 (TV: 0-0) - 2021 Titles (TV): 2-2 (1-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 99.34 – 97.41
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.22 – 0.32
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 43.53% – 35.51%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 14.16% – 11.63%
The odds suggest this should be the most one-sided match of the night but there's plenty of reasons to expect Chris Dobey to give Michael van Gerwen a run for his money.
One of those reasons certainly isn't the head-to-head record as he's still yet to register a victory in nine previous attempts.
At least only two of those defeats happened this year and the last on TV came way back at the 2019 World Grand Prix when he wasn't the title-winning player he's now become in 2021.
Although MVG is my headline tip for the title and therefore am still expecting him to come through tonight, Dobey was a little pre-tournament saver at 20/1 to win this quarter of the draw as I did earmark him as potentially the biggest threat to the Dutchman when the format is relatively short compared to the latter stages.
Dobey can't afford to gift van Gerwen a two-set lead like he did to Rusty-Jake Rodriguez in the final match before Christmas but the levels he produced in those three sets, in which he only dropped three legs, are more likely to make a decent game of it.
He managed just two maximums in 22 legs of darts which is a surprise considering how he has one of the highest 180s per leg ratios on the circuit but they both came in the last three legs while he'd hit 16 140s before then.
A match of around five or six sets and his target of seven maximums should be achieved comfortably.
Prediction: 4-2
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