Jake Osgathorpe's 2026 World Cup tips and predictions: Third place play-off

Football

Fri July 17, 2026 · 3h ago

Jake's World Cup 2026 Predictions: Staked 167.85pts | Returned 202.58pts | P/L +34.73pts | ROI 21%

***correct as of 13:30 BST (13/7/26)

Football betting tips: World Cup

1.5pts Kylian Mbappe 1+ shot on target outside the box at 5/4 (bet365)

0.5pt Kylian Mbappe to score from outside the box at 10/1 (bet365)

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Aside from the disappointment of the England result, the semi-finals were very hit and miss from a betting perspective.

We missed massively in the Spain-France game, where the bullishness on a win for Les Bleus was a bad move, but hit on the England-Argentina clash thanks to both teams scoring and Lionel Messi grabbing an assist.

All told it resulted in another +1.4pts being added to the pot, which is nearly +35pts heading into the final two matches.

This preview will solely focus on the third place play-off, or as it's better known: the game no one wants to play. A bronze medal is on the line, but when you're one of the favourites to win the tournament and get beaten in the semis, I imagine you couldn't care less about that.

France vs England

BBC One - Saturday, 22:00 BST
Venue: Miami Stadium, Miami Gardens
Live odds, form and stats

France were looking to make it to three successive World Cup finals but came up well short against Spain on Tuesday and will have to be much better here if they are to win bronze in what will be Didier Deschamps' final game as manager.

That could be one reason to back the French to win here, with the players looking to give him a winning send off, and another could be the fact Les Bleus have an extra days rest from the semi-finals.

Harry Kane after England's semi-final defeat by Argentina in the 2026 World Cup

Better squad depth, should rotations occur, is also another plus in the French camp, as is the manner of their defeat compared to England's.

Les Bleus were comfortably second best throughtout and can have no qualms about coming up short. England were better than Argentina for 60 minutes before crumbling mentally and physically. That could be yet more scar tissue for the players with this game coming too soon after such a bitterly disappointing result.

If you want more breakdowns of England's shortcomings we have you well covered on site, with Alex Keble calling Thomas Tuchel a 'coward', Nick Metcalfe in total agreement with the BBC pundits around their criticism of the German coach, and Joe Townsend covering the prices on Tuchel leaving after the tournament as well as who could possibly be brought in to replace him should he depart.

We also have Joe's third place play-off preview too which goes in depth into the game as a whole and each team on show. And he puts his foot in on Tuchel once again. From here, this preview will focus purely on bets for this game.

We'll start with KYLIAN MBAPPE. The France captain was poor on Tuesday, but is still level with Lionel Messi on eight goals in the Golden Boot race - though the Argentine's brace of assists against the Three Lions means he is ahead on that tiebreaker.

Kylian Mbappe celebrates against Morocco

That means Mbappe needs to score here to have any chance of retaining an award he won in 2022, and two goals for the Real Madrid man would give him an excellent chance of doing so. He should start here as he is a player who does chase the individual awards, and he's understandably short at 7/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes) to score anytime.

But the 5/4 for him to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX appeals. This game will be played in the sweltering heat of Miami - remember England's game with Norway - and so it wouldn't be a surprise to see tired legs early on, especially from an England side who have had a day less to recover.

That could lead to the Three Lions again sinking into a mid-to-deep block which could encourage attempts from range, and Mbappe, who will be chasing goals, hasn't been afraid to pull the trigger from far out.

In fact, he's averaged 1.78 shots per 90 from outside the box at this tournament, with 0.74 per 90 hitting the target and two finding the net. It's not a flash in the pan either, as during the La Liga season Mbappe averaged 1.49 shots per 90 from outside the box, scoring six times from range.

At 10/1, we'll also chance MBAPPE TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX, something he has done more than any other player across the 25/26 season.

He loves a pop from range, has a fierce strike, the World Cup ball moves like crazy and England's goalkeeper - should it be Jordan Pickford - hasn't been at his shot-stopping best at this tournament.

In fact, according to post-shot expected goals, he has underperformed by three goals at the World Cup, conceding eight goals from on-target shots equating to 5.02 xG, including getting beat from long distance twice.

Score prediction: France 2-0 England (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 13:00 BST (17/07/26)

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