Jake's World Cup 2026 Predictions: Staked 160.35pts | Returned 190.68pts | P/L +33.33pts | ROI 21%
***correct as of 13:30 BST (13/7/26)
Football betting tips: World Cup
England vs Argentina - Wednesday 20:00
2pts Both teams to score at 19/20 (General)
1pt Lionel Messi 1+ assist at 4/1 (Betfred, BOYLESports, Unibet)
1pt Jude Bellingham to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
England vs Argentina
- BBC One - Wednesday, 20:00 BST
- Venue: Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta
- Live odds, form and stats
We need to take a moment to appreciate that England are now a reliable tournament team. Since the lows of elimination at the hands of Iceland at Euro 2016, the Three Lions have been simply fantastic in major tournaments, so much so that anyone currently aged 20 or younger probably doesn't realise the pain and longing for any kind of success all us older lot had to sit through.
The 2018 World Cup was the start of it, reaching the semi-finals there, before finishing runners-up at Euro 2020, bowing out in the quarters at the 2022 World Cup and again finishing runners-up in the 2024 Euros. Another semi-final at this World Cup means its a real period of sustained excellence, but one thing is missing - a trophy.
Argentina went through similar. They low was a round of 16 exit at the hands of then-teenage Kylian Mbappe in the 2018 World Cup when hopes were incredibly high following runner-up finishes in the 2014 World Cup, 2015 Copa America and 2016 Copa America.
Since then they have turned into a winning machine, with the difference between them and England being that La Albiceleste have gotten over the line and lifted trophies. Success in the 2021 Copa America preceded them winning the 2022 World Cup, and they sandwiched that victory with another Copa success in 2024.
Lionel Messi and co. just know how to get over the line; they know how to get the job done. England, as of yet, don't, coming up short in the biggest of games. Maybe that all changes at this tournament with an elite coach in charge, but from a betting perspective, I'm happy to leave the 1X2 alone in this one.
Instead we should back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE as our main bet, with both sides defensively vulnerable but both packing a punch in attack. The price on offer here of 19/20 is simply huge given everything we have seen from these two teams throughout the World Cup so far.
England have incredible firepower in forward areas and have created plenty of chances on a regular basis, with Thomas Tuchel crying out for a game against a 'good side' that he thinks will unlock this teams' true potential.
He effectively wants a team to step onto England as opposed to retreating and sitting deep, and the only example of the former we have seen at this tournament was the very first game against Croatia. That went pretty well didn't it.
I'm not sure whether Argentina will play like that either though, they may have seen England's struggles against a defensive-minded approach and look to adopt similar, but it's hard to gauge really as Lionel Scaloni's men have been a chaotic follow in North America.
It could well be that both sides back themselves to outscore each other and we see an all-timer of a match, but even if we don't, I'd still expect each side to net at least once. The two defences on display simply aren't good enough to contain the opposing attacks for 90 minutes.
All of England's three knockout games so far have seen BTTS land, and it's the same for Argentina, so a repeat looks highly likely here and the price on offer is too big.
As well as goals, this could be a spiky game with plenty of tackles, fouls and flashpoints. The rivalry between England and Argentina is very, very real, both from a political side of things but also footballing. On the pitch, the pair haven't met since a 2005 friendly that saw five yellow cards and a late Michael Owen brace secure a 3-2 with for the Three Lions (a repeat on Wednesday would be great please).
In competitive encounters, Diego Maradona's 'Hand of God' in 1986 was the start of the on-pitch rivalry, with Diego Simeone's housery to get David Beckham sent off in 1998 another of those, and you just know in this game there will be something big that will be talked about for generations.
It could involve LIONEL MESSI, who plays against England for the very first time. The little magician has carried his nation once again, four years on from his 2022 heroics, with eight goals and two assists at the young age of 39 quite something. He delivered an ASSIST for us again in the last round, and at 4/1, we'll go in again.
He's averaging 3.57 chances created, 1.02 big chances created and 0.57 expected assists per 90 at the World Cup, all incredible numbers, and given that everything goes through him, it makes sense that he's putting up fantastic goal involvement numbers.
The fact he takes set-pieces is also a huge plus for this bet as well, as not only have England looked a little shaky from dead-balls at the tournament, but it's been an area of strength for Argentina, with Messi's assist in the quarters coming from a set-piece.
Messi surely has a say in this game as he bids to make it to a third World Cup final. The same could be said for JUDE BELLINGHAM, England's budding superstar who really has taken the team by the scruff of the neck and dragged them through the last two rounds.
He's been sensational in North America, so much so that he might have a target on his back here. Argentina will be doing everything they can to keep him in check, which includes some of the dark arts along with being physically rough into tackles, likely looking to rile up the young Brummie.
Bellingham doesn't need an invitation to retaliate, being happy to dish out what he's received and then some, so I really like the look of his price TO BE CARDED at 3/1. He has one card already at the World Cup and does fly into duels, so much so he had to literally jump out of the way of one against Norway when he looked set on clattering an opponent late which could have brought a yellow card and a suspension for this match.
The fact he avoided said suspension and the cards have been wiped means he's free to kick a few Argentines and let them feel his presence, something England will absolutely need in what will be a fiercely fought battle, especially in what could be a congested midfield.
Backing this with Sky Bet appeals as this could be a game that goes the distance, so their extra-time inclusion could be a huge benefit for punters.
Score prediction: Argentina 1-1 England (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 22:00 BST (13/07/26)
Already advised
France vs Spain - Tuesday 20:00
2pts France to win in 90 minutes at 11/8 (Betfred)
1pt Rodri to be carded at 3/1 (bet365)
Card double
0.5pt Rodri and Bellingham to be carded at 15/1 (Sky Bet)
*backing with Sky Bet due to super sub and extra-time inclusion, Paddy Power are a bigger price (17/1) without the extra-time inclusion
The quarter-finals were very kind to us, with over +5pts of profit made as all of the favourites - the top four ranked sides in the world - all advanced to the semis to set up a couple of mouth-watering games.
France have been the most impressive side at the tournament for me, barely coming out of second gear yet on their waltz to the last four, and Didier Deschamps' side will take some beating as the aim to get to their third straight World Cup final.
Spain were growing into the tournament but a few alarm bells began to ring against a poor Belgium side, while England again found a way to get through in their sweltering match against Norway. Reigning champions Argentina again needed extra-time to reach this stage with their emotional rollercoaster carrying on from the 2022 campaign.
It really has been a great World Cup and we now have two incredible semi-finals to take in.
France vs Spain
- ITV1 - Tuesday, 20:00 BST
- Venue: Dallas Stadium, Dallas
- Live odds, form and stats
The two pre-tournament favourites meet at the semi-final stage, but I'm going to cut straight to the chase here and tell you I am in the FRANCE camp, being more than happy to back them TO WIN this IN 90 MINUTES.
What they have done at the tournament so far has been excellent, with their front four seemingly impossible to stop over the course of 90 minutes never mind 120, and while Spain do boast the best defence in the tournament according to goals and expected goals conceded, they are vulnerable.
We saw as much in the quarter-finals when Belgium got into some great positions in transition only to lack the cutting edge and take advantage of the space and the high-line which Spain deploy. France will not be wasteful.
Going the other way, while France's defence hasn't been fully tested, Spain's attack doesn't scare you, especially with Lamine Yamal not at the same levels he was in Euro 2024 and Nico Williams not 100% either.
Defensively Spain haven't yet been fully tested in the way they will be here, and the argument can be made that Spain's possession-heavy style could suit a France team who will be lethal in transitions.
The other reason I really like France here is that this game is being played in a climate controlled stadium. Believe it or not, this is France's first air-conned game of the World Cup, so their utter domination to this point has to be upgraded given those games have all come in sweltering heat.
Another potential factor is that France had one extra rest-day to Spain, playing on the Thursday rather than Friday, and Les Bleus haven't racked anywhere near the amount of travel miles Spain have which could mean they are even fresher and have recovered better post-game. In fact, France travelled fewer than 2,000 miles en route to the semis, with their round trip to Dallas for this semi-final more than doubling the mileage, while Spain have logged more than 12,000 miles prior to travelling for this game.
It wouldn't surprise me were Les Bleus to find another gear or two here and win this game comfortably.
As Spain have been comfortable defensively, with teams sitting deep and generally offering little on the counter, it has made RODRI look like his old self, and while it could be the case that he is back to his best, it could also be a false dawn that France could exploit.
The City midfielder will be tasked with slowing down Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise in the centre of the pitch, with those two incredibly fast and dynamic in space meaning Rodri could be called upon to commit a cynical foul or two.
That makes the about him TO BE CARDED appeal. For City last season, Rodri really struggled when things got stretched and opponents had space to run into, resulting in him collecting seven cards across all competitions (0.26 p90), so looks a good bet to have his name taken in this high-stakes game.
We'll back this with bet365 who are offering the 3/1 with super sub and including extra-time. Paddy Power are a slightly bigger price (16/5) but don't offer the latter.
Score prediction: France 3-1 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 21:00 BST (13/07/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
- Jake's predictions: Quarter-finals
- Jake's predictions: Round of 16
- Jake's predictions: Round of 32
- Jake's predictions: Group Stage round 3
- Jake's predictions: Group Stage round 2
- Jake's predictions: Group Stage round 1
- World Cup betting guide
- Outright preview
- Golden Boot preview
- Golden Ball preview
- FREE World Cup wallchart
- FREE World Cup sweepstake kit
- World Cup: All you need to know
- Fixtures, results and live scores
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