Jake's World Cup 2026 Predictions: Staked 144.50pts | Returned 172.64pts | P/L +28.14pts | ROI 19.5%
***correct as of 09:30 BST (9/7/26)
Football betting tips: World Cup
Quarter-final fourfolds
1.5pts France, Spain, England and Argentina all to qualify at 21/10 (bet365)
0.5pt France, Spain, England and Argentina all to win in 90 minutes at 7/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi all to score in 90 minutes at 14.8/1 (bet365)
0.1pt Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi all to score 2+ goals in 90 minutes at 1352/1 (bet365)
France vs Morocco - Thursday 21:00
2pts Kylian Mbappé to score anytime at 10/11 (bet365)
0.5pt Kylian Mbappé to score 2+ goals at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Issa Diop to be carded at 4/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Spain vs Belgium - Friday 20:00
1.25pt Spain to win to nil at 19/10 (BetVictor)
1pt Nathan Ngoy to be carded at 10/3 (bet365)
1pt Maxim De Cuyper to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
Norway vs England - Saturday 22:00
2pts Harry Kane to score anytime at evens (BetVictor)
***Further quarter-final tips to follow
I think it's fair to say that the 2026 World Cup has been really good - on the pitch. Some of the games have been excellent, and it seems as though sides have forgotten how to defend.
They haven't forgotten how to attack though, and if anything I'd argue we've seen some of the best attacking football for a long time during the tournament.
As things stand heading into the quarter-finals, FIFA are getting their way. While things haven't gone as scripted, with some early big-name casualties, we are in a spot where it seems highly likely, to me anyway, that the top four seeds will make up the final four.
Quarter-final acca
Those are Argentina, France, Spain and England. FIFA drew the bracket up hoping to get those four in the semis and it looks highly likely that will happen.
In fact, I'd argue that it would be a huge shock were any of the four not to make the semis, with the Europeans growing into the tournament nicely and the reigning champions continuing to find ways to get through.
I think there is a gulf between the top four and their opponents, and while perhaps not the smartest thing to do in knockout football, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the quarters were chalk - that all four favourites advanced. The TO QUALIFY fourfold pays around 21/10 and that looks value to me.
I have a feeling that, the Europeans in particular, haven't yet hit top gear, but now, with the manic early tournament schedule behind them and far more rest days in between their last 16 and quarter-final ties, I expect the favourites to show up in a big way.
For a bigger price I'll also recommend a small stake on ALL FOUR FAVOURITES TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES at 7/1.
History suggests there will be at least one upset, but in previous editions of this great tournament we haven't seen as many games, as many minutes in legs or squad depth play such a big part in games, with strength off the bench - especially in the elements - a huge advantage for the four favourites.
We'll also have a fun bet on the goalscorers, where we can back KYLIAN MBAPPÉ, HARRY KANE, ERLING HAALAND and LIONEL MESSI all TO SCORE ANYTIME at just shy of 15/1.
The four stars are the four top scorers at the World Cup, unsurprisingly, with Messi and Haaland scoring in every game they have played at the tournament and Mbappé and Kane netting in four of five.
It's a fun one to cheer on with all four players on penalty duty, all in attack minded teams who funnel everything through them, and all up against vulnerable defences.
We'll have a small flutter on them all TO SCORE A BRACE too at north of 1000/1. Mbappé has three braces in five games, Kane two in five, Haaland three in four and Messi two in five. You never know...
It's worth noting that the prices quoted for these fourfolds are with bet365, who offer super sub and include extra-time in the bets, with the latter a potentially huge boost for the brace acca.
France vs Morocco
- ITV1 - Thursday, 21:00 BST
- Venue: Boston Stadium, Foxborough
- Live odds, form and stats
I thought France were excellent against Paraguay. They showed an incredible amount of grit and determination in a challenging situation - the challenge being getting physically beaten up with no punishment for the Paraguayans, who were playing for a 0-0.
The French could have easily lost their heads, getting rattled by things outside of their control, but they dealt with the situation with serious swagger in my opinion. I loved Kylian Mbappé smiling and playing wind up merchant against the South Americans who were trying to kick him. Great viewing.
Now they face Morocco, the side they beat in the 2022 World Cup semi finals, though the Africans are admittedly much better now. Having said that, I still have question marks about them, especially against this level of opponent.
France, for my money, are probably the best team at the tournament, and their attack takes some stopping. Paraguay became just the second team in the last 18 international games to stop Les Bleus from scoring at least twice.
I think Didier Deschamps' side find the net at least twice here, with Morocco unlikely to adopt a similar approach to Paraguay meaning more space for the scary French forward quartet to really do some damage.
Keeping things simple, KYLIAN MBAPPÉ is 10/11 to SCORE ANYTIME and that is value. Seven goals in the World Cup already, on penalty duty and looking incredibly sharp and determined in North America, he will take some stopping.
Add in the fact that he likes to operate slightly off the French left, and he could find real joy with Achraf Hakimi's forward runs likely to leave pockets for the France captain.
At 5/1, we'll also back MBAPPÉ TO SCORE 2+ GOALS. It has been a tournament of braces, especially for the super stars, and Mbappé has scored three braces in his five games at the tournament. Should France get ahead, there will be even more space for Mbappé to hurt Morocco in transition, increasing the likelihood of a multi-goal-haul.
We'll also have a card bet, with the aforementioned ISSA DIOP a lovely price of 4/1 TO BE CARDED. He could be left exposed down Morocco's right, having to deal with Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué and Mbappé, maybe even Michael Olise if France look to overload the spaces left by Hakimi.
Diop has two cards at the tournament already (0.47 per 90) and also picked up two cards in limited Premier League minutes last season.
The referee here is Argentina Facundo Tello who has shown seven cards in two World Cup appearances, so isn't the worst appointment in what has been an admittedly poor tournament for cards.
Score prediction: France 2-0 Morocco (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 11:00 BST (09/07/26)
Spain vs Belgium
- BBC One - Friday, 20:00 BST
- Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood
- Live odds, form and stats
Spain have really grown into the tournament, with their success built on ball dominance and a solid defensive record. It's very much a throwback to the side that won two Euros and a World Cup between 2008 and 2012.
They are suffocating teams to death and giving their opponents next to no chances to cause them problems. The underlying data speaks for itself.
La Furia Roja are yet to concede in North America, have conceded the second fewest shots per game (5.80) of sides to have made the last 16, the fewest shots on target per game (1.00) and by far and away the fewest expected goals (1.50 - 0.30 per game). The next best in that latter category is Argentina (0.60).
Spain have forced the most turnovers (252) and win the ball back faster than any side that remains in the tournament, so all things point to this being a very tough game for Belgium.
The Red Devils were excellent against the USA, dominating from the first whistle and playing with an intensity that we hadn't seen from them before. Perhaps the off-field injustice gave them a little extra motivation.
Prior to that game, Belgium hadn't looked very good at all, and should have been eliminated by Senegal in the round of 32, and it will be fascinating to see how they deal with this big, big step up in opponent.
I think they will struggle to do anything against this well-drilled Spain side, and yet another SPAIN WIN TO NIL looks the way to play this, with the price of 19/10 big value.
Michael Oliver is the referee for this one, and he has been one of the most prolific card throwers at the tournament. 13 yellows in three games is solid work, and his only knockout game to date saw eight yellows as Morocco knocked out co-hosts Canada.
This looks a good spot to have a card dart, and Brighton's MAXIM DE CUYPER looks nicely priced at 15/4 TO BE CARDED.
The Brighton left-back has been good going forward for Belgium, but he will be asked to do a lot of defending here against Spain, and especially against Lamine Yamal.
De Cuyper has been booked once already at the tournament, and Yamal has drawn two cards in the three games he's played more than 45 minutes at the tournament.
We'll also back NATHAN NGOY TO BE CARDED at 10/3, with the centre-back likely to struggle to deal with Spain's rotations and an unpredictable Mikel Oyarzabal, who provides a threat in behind and when coming short.
Ngoy has been sent off at this World Cup already and has committed 1.83 fouls per 90, while last season for Lille he was carded 11 times at an average of 0.41 per 90.
A Leandro Trossard card came close to being tipped too at 7/1 given how nearly all of his cards for Arsenal have come in big games, but we'll stick to the Belgium defenders and hope Oliver delivers once again.
Score prediction: Spain 2-0 Belgium (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 13:40 BST (09/07/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
- Jake's predictions: Round of 16
- Jake's predictions: Round of 32
- Jake's predictions: Group Stage round 3
- Jake's predictions: Group Stage round 2
- Jake's predictions: Group Stage round 1
- World Cup betting guide
- Outright preview
- Golden Boot preview
- Golden Ball preview
- FREE World Cup wallchart
- FREE World Cup sweepstake kit
- World Cup: All you need to know
- Fixtures, results and live scores
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