Football betting tips: World Cup outright
3pts e.w. Portugal to win the World Cup at 10/1 (General 1/2, 1,2)
3pts e.w. Argentina to win the World Cup at 10/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
World Cup 2026 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
Each Way: 1/2 Odds, 2 Places
- Spain - 4/1
- France - 9/2
- England - 13/2
- Brazil - 9/1
- Argentina - 10/1
- Portugal - 10/1
- Germany - 12/1
- Netherlands - 16/1
- Belgium - 20/1
- Norway - 33/1
- Colombia - 40/1
- 66/1 bar
Have the top four teams been kept apart in the draw?
FIFA made a big change to the draw for the 2026 World Cup with the aim of maximising the chance of having two huge semi-finals. Should the top four seeds progress as expected, Spain (1) will meet France (3) and Argentina (2) will face England (4) in the semis.
The bookies are clear in which side of the draw they favour, with Spain and France general 9/2 joint-favourites to lift the trophy.
England are considered their most likely opponent in the final, but there is quite the jump to 13/2 for them to win a first World Cup since 1966. Despite being holders and back-to-back Copa America winners, Argentina (10/1) are the considerable outsiders of the top seeds.
Are England on the harder side of the draw?
The price split makes sense given the strength of teams on England's side of the draw.
The Three Lions are predicted to meet fourth-favourites Brazil (8/1) in the quarter-finals, a repeat of the 2002 tie in which Ronaldinho famously embarrassed David Seaman with a quickly taken free-kick before later being sent off.
This half's other last-eight match is expected to be Argentina versus Portugal (10/1).
By contrast, the Netherlands (20/1) are France's most likely quarter-final opponent, with Spain forecast to meet Belgium (33/1).
Points towards Portugal
It's very hard to look past Spain and France on that half of the draw, but they are simply unbackable at the prices. That is far from the case on the stronger side.
Argentina have drifted in the run-up to the World Cup, principally because they are predicted to meet PORTUGAL in the quarter-finals.
The market has moved in the opposite direction for Roberto Martinez's side, with plenty of firms willing to offer them at 12/1 TO WIN THE WORLD CUP only a few weeks ago. A top price of 11/1 is still available and they remain very backable at a general 10/1.
Contrary to popular opinion Martinez has an excellent record across his decade in international management.
The idea he underperformed as Belgium coach is unfair. They went mightily close to a first major title at the 2018 World Cup, losing a thrilling one-goal semi-final to eventual champions France. A generational squad then gradually disintegrated, with quarter-final and group-stage exits in his final two tournaments.
Martinez has already delivered the Nations League for Portugal, beating European champions and fierce rivals Spain on penalties in last summer's final, an impressive bounce back from the disappointment of Euro 2024 when they lost in the same manner in the last eight, again to France.
Portugal's World Cup squad
Goalkeepers: Diogo Costa (Porto), Jose Sa (Wolves), Rui Silva (Sporting), Ricardo Velho (Genclerbirligi).
Defenders: Diogo Dalot (Manchester United), Matheus Nunes (Manchester City), Ruben Dias (Manchester City), Nelson Semedo (Fenerbahce), Joao Cancelo (Barcelona), Nuno Mendes (Paris St-Germain), Goncalo Inacio (Sporting), Renato Veiga (Villarreal), Tomas Araujo (Benfica).
Midfielders: Ruben Neves (Al-Hilal), Samu Costa (Mallorca), Joao Neves (Paris St-Germain), Vitinha (Paris St-Germain), Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United), Bernardo Silva (Manchester City).
Forwards: Cristiano Ronaldo (Al-Nassr), Joao Felix (Al-Nassr), Francisco Trincao (Sporting), Francisco Conceicao (Juventus), Pedro Neto (Chelsea), Rafael Leao (AC Milan), Goncalo Guedes (Real Sociedad), Goncalo Ramos (Paris St-Germain).
Even prior to Martinez's appointment this squad wasn't far away, reaching the quarters four years ago only to meet an inspired Morocco.
Fernando Santos struggled with the circus surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo's role in the team at that World Cup, something Martinez has managed superbly well as a new crop of talented youngsters have emerged to complement their world-class, experienced players.
Crucially it is in midfield where they are especially strong, something that could prove vital in searing temperatures as not only do they have the capability to dominate possession and therefore tire their opponents, but Martinez can make changes without reducing quality in the middle of the pitch.
PSG's metronomic duo of Joao Neves and Vitinha, both Manchester clubs' captains in Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva, and the sought-after Ruben Neves provide lots of central-midfield options to form the hub of what could be Portugal's first ever World Cup-winning team.
What is Portugal's route to the final?
It's rare paths play out as forecast, although this year's seeding of the top four teams makes it more likely than ever.
Portugal have been handed an unsurprisingly favourable draw, with DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia joining them in Group K. Should they top that, they will face a third-placed team from Group D/E/I/J/L; they'll hope to avoid I's lucky loser - likely France, Senegal or Norway.
Their most likely round-of-16 opponent is Switzerland, although Canada will be hopeful of making use of their co-host advantage and topping Group B.
Should Argentina and Brazil top their groups and continue to progress, they may well await at the quarter and semi-final stages, although it could be England instead of Selecao in the last four.
Then a potential blockbuster final against Iberian rivals Spain, or France, to make history...
Argentina to break the curse
Having put up Portugal to win Euro 2024 and been very bullish on Martinez's side perhaps I'm still scarred, but I do get the case Joe has put together.
I'm going to take him on though, with my dear sweethearts ARGENTINA priced at a lovely 10/1 to WIN back-to-back WORLD CUPS.
I say sweethearts because they delivered for us in both the last World Cup at 7/1 and at the 2024 Copa America at 7/4, so they owe us absolutely nothing, but I see a lot of positives once again that Lionel Scaloni - fast becoming the best international manager in the world - can deliver once more.
Let's address the so called champions curse for starters.
In 2002, holders France finished bottom of their group, failing to score a single goal. In 2010, defending champions Italy finished bottom of a group containing New Zealand, Paraguay and Slovakia. Four years later, it was Spain's turn to follow up their success by being knocked out after just two games. And finally, holders Germany finished bottom of their group in 2018.
The exceptions were Brazil making the quarter-finals in 2006 and France, at the last World Cup, coming within a penalty shootout of defending their title.
An issue for many of the cursed sides was having a team at the end of its cycle. Argentina could be too, but I think they have freshened things up enough for success at one more tournament.
Having been nearly men for decades they are a winning machine under Scaloni.
In the 16 years before his 2018 appointment Argentina played in five Copa Americas and five World Cups, finishing as runners-up four times and winning nothing. They have since won three of four major tournaments and even won The Finalissima against Euro 2020 champions Italy for good measure.
Argentina have won 67 of 94 major-tournament matches (71%) and lost just nine (9%) under Scaloni, conceding just 49 times (0.52 per game). Strong defence is exactly what you need for knockout success and I don't see why that should change this time around.
Squad-wise, there are some new faces added to the stalwarts, with the side again led by Lionel Messi, and it's a team with a strong and dependable spine.
Julián Alvarez (26 years-old) and Enzo Fernández (25) are older and wiser having broken through in Qatar, Nico Paz (21) is a sensational footballer and has had a wonderful season at Como while Atletico Madrid pair Giuliano Simeone (23) and Thiago Almada (25) provide both guile and flair.
Messi's bodyguards, Rodrigo De Paul - also now at Inter Miami with Messi - and Leandro Paredes are still in the fold, as is Alexis Mac Allister, with wily centre-back Nicolás Otamendi remaining alongside striker Lautaro Martínez and goalkeeping hero Emiliano Martínez.
It's a squad that has the perfect balance of youth, experience, quality, knowhow, flexibility and fight, and one who have already shown their capability in the climate having won the 2024 Copa America in the USA.
Their route to the quarter-finals looks straightforward. They face Austria, Algeria and Jordan in the group stage, with familiar foes Uruguay potential opponents in the round of 32 before possibly meeting hosts the USA in the last 16.
Then the big boys enter the fray - should the bracket go as planned - with Portugal set to be their quarter-final opponent, a potential Messi vs Ronaldo headline grabber. I'd back the holders with their knockout pedigree to get the better of CR7 and co, reach the semis and then it's anyone's game.
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
- World Cup betting guide
- Group A: Mexico; South Africa; South Korea; Czechia
- Group B: Canada; Bosnia; Qatar; Switzerland
- Group C: Brazil; Morocco; Haiti; Scotland
- Group D: USA; Paraguay; Australia; Turkiye
- Group E: Germany; Curacao; Ivory Coast; Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands; Japan; Sweden; Tunisia
- Group G: Belgium; Egypt; Iran; New Zealand
- Group H: Spain; Cape Verde; Saudi Arabia; Uruguay
- Group I: France; Senegal; Iraq; Norway
- Group J: Argentina; Algeria; Austria; Jordan
- Group K: Portugal; DR Congo; Uzbekistan; Colombia
- Group L: England; Croatia; Ghana; Panama
- Golden Boot preview
- Golden Ball preview
- Specials preview
- FREE World Cup wallchart
- FREE World Cup sweepstake kit
- World Cup: All you need to know
- Fixtures, results and live scores
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
