Super 6 tips

Super 6 predictions and correct score tips

The Premier League returns this weekend, and with it comes a fresh round of Super 6! Jake Osgathorpe predicts the correct scores using expected goals (xG) data.

  • LIVERPOOL v Brighton
  • Crystal Palace v CHELSEA
  • FULHAM v Newcastle
  • West Ham v Wolves: DRAW
  • MANCHESTER CITY v Manchester United
  • LEEDS v Aston Villa

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Liverpool 3-1 Brighton

  • 15:00 BST, Saturday

Liverpool haven't played a Premier League game for nearly a month as they welcome Brighton, though in that time we have witnessed both disastrous (xG: NAP 4.80 - 1.30 LIV) and excellent (xG: LIV 2.23 - 0.19 AJA) displays in the Champions League.

They have serious question marks around them defensively, but going forward the Reds continue to generate chances. Jurgen Klopp's side have averaged 2.38 xGF per game this season, showing that while there have been teething issues after a change in personnel, Liverpool do still pack a punch.

It's a new era at Brighton after Graham Potter moved to Chelsea, with Italian coach Roberto De Zerbi taking over. He inherits a good squad in a decent position, with the Seagulls occupying fourth spot in the Premier League table while sitting third based on expected points.

De Zerbi is an expansive coach, like Potter, which should mean Brighton continue to be a good watch, but this is a tough first game for the new man, and his open playing style that tends to lead to goal-laden games could see them exposed defensively.

Crystal Palace 0-1 Chelsea

  • 15:00 BST, Saturday

Crystal Palace have had a tough start early season schedule, they have already played Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, and it doesn't get any easier.

Patrick Vieira's side have generally been extremely impressive at home since his appointment, boasting a good record against the division's better sides, but their start to the campaign from a defensive standpoint is concerning, with Palace shipping an average of 2.28 xGA per game through six matches.

Chelsea have a new coach in the dugout for this one, with Graham Potter replacing Thomas Tuchel. In his first game in charge against an attack-minded Salzburg in the Champions League the Blues looked incredibly solid defensively and were unfortunate to only draw (xG: CHE 1.46 - 0.19 SAL).

A strong defensive process was the backbone to Potter's success at Brighton so should be a given at Chelsea. The main question marks come in forward areas - can he get them ticking? I think he can, but the Potter era is likely to start by securing close wins in a controlled manner.

Fulham 2-1 Newcastle

  • 15:00 BST, Saturday

Fulham have made a sensational start, sitting sixth in the Premier League table after seven games, though that lofty position is flattering. The Cottagers have lost the xG battle in five of those games, so have been fortunate to pick up so many points.

The quality they possess in forward areas (1.41 xGF per game) coupled with their defensive vulnerabilities (1.95 xGA per game) means they have been a good watch, scoring in six of their seven matches, with the same six also seeing at least three goals.

We should see more of the same here against a Newcastle side who have drawn five of their first seven, beating Nottingham Forest and losing to Liverpool. It has been a steady if not inspiring start, but performances have warranted more points than they have accumulated.

I do still have question marks over the Magpies on the road under Eddie Howe. Since his appointment they have averaged 1.05 xGF and 1.87 xGA per away game. Coupled with a striker shortage - Alexander Isak is out and Callum Wilson is doubtful - Fulham are backed to edge to victory.

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West Ham 0-0 Wolves

  • Sky Sports: 17:30 BST, Saturday

West Ham are in trouble. Their poor performances have warranted their results so far this season (W1, D1, L5) with David Moyes' side looking surprisingly blunt in attack through seven matches.

They have averaged just 1.20 xGF per game, failing to breach the 1.0 xGF mark in four of their contests. Defensively they have shown improvements after a slow start, allowing just 0.84 xGA per game across their last four, meaning a dull contest was likely to be on the cards no matter who they faced this weekend.

Given Wolves are their opponents the chances of a turgid affair increase further. Bruno Lage's side have had a similar start to the Hammers from a performance and result standpoint, struggling miserably in attack (1.07 xGF per game).

They too have shown defensive improvements of late, meaning we could be in for a game of very few chances at the London Stadium.

Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United

  • Sky Sports: 14:00 BST, Sunday

Manchester City have unsurprisingly looked excellent so far this season, winning five of an unbeaten seven while posting some incredible underlying numbers (2.44 xGF and 0.76 xGA per game).

This is their toughest test to date but given the way in which they have performed so far at both ends of the pitch - and the fact they are at home - it's hard to look past a comfortable City win.

Manchester United do come into this game on the back of four straight victories - two against fellow 'big six' members - but there has been a degree of fortune according to xG. While they sit fifth in the table, Erik ten Hag's side sit 10th based on expected points (xP) per game.

Defensively there is still a lot to be worked on with the Red Devils having shipped 1.52 xGA per game this term.

Leeds 2-1 Aston Villa

  • Sky Sports: 16:30 BST, Sunday

Leeds have made a solid start to the new campaign, especially at home, with Jesse Marsch's side winning two and drawing one at Elland Road.

The Whites have been impressive in attack (1.53 xGF per home game) and assured defensively (1.03 xGA per home game) when playing in front of their own fans, which bodes well for them as they welcome a vulnerable travelling team.

Aston Villa got a much needed win before the international break when beating Southampton, but have lost all three away matches to date, putting in really poor performances.

They have averaged 0.66 xGF and 2.14 xGA per away game. If those levels are repeated here it would almost certainly see them beaten.

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