Football betting tips: World Cup top scorer
2pts e.w. Julian Alvarez to finish as top scorer at 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Viktor Gyokeres to finish as top scorer at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Darwin Nunez to finish as top scorer at 80/1 (BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Luis Díaz to finish as top scorer at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Luis Suarez to finish as top scorer at 60/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4)
4pts e.w. Kylian Mbappe to finish as top scorer at 6/1 (bet365, Betway, BOYLESports 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Raphinha to finish as top scorer at 33/1 (BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Breel Embolo to finish as top scorer at 125/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
World Cup Golden Boot odds (via Sky Bet)
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 4 Places
- Kylian Mbappe - 11/2
- Harry Kane - 13/2
- Erling Haaland - 12/1
- Lionel Messi - 14/1
- Mikel Oyarzabal - 14/1
- Lamine Yamal - 16/1
- Cristiano Ronaldo - 18/1
- Raphinha - 22/1
- Ousmane Dembele - 22/1
- Julian Alvarez - 28/1
- Lautaro Martinez - 28/1
- Vinicius Junior - 28/1
- 33/1 bar
The Golden Boot market is dominated by Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane, meaning opportunities abound to land some big place money.
Generally firms are paying down to fourth - some go as low as fifth, but then cut the each-way odds from 1/4 to 1/5 - and there are a couple of strikers I think have a great opportunity of being in the mix, especially JULIAN ALVAREZ.
The Argentine is expected to be at the centre of a transfer tug of war this summer after another outstanding season for Atletico Madrid, one in which he was especially impressive in the Champions League, scoring 10 goals in 15 matches at a goals per 90 average of 0.73.
Only Mbappe and Kane scored more times in Europe's elite competition, but while they are 6/1 joint-favourites to finish as TOP SCORER, Alvarez is 33/1.
The 26-year-old scored four goals in 2022 as Argentina lifted the World Cup in Qatar, finishing behind Mbappe (8) and team-mate Lionel Messi (7) in the charts.
Since then Messi has transitioned to more of a support role for the holders when needed, with Lionel Scaloni evolving the side to be built around Alvarez as they seek to become the first team to defend the trophy since Brazil in 1962.
With Group J fixtures against Algeria, Austria and Jordan to look forward to, he could fill his boots before Argentina inevitably reach the knockout stage, with it likely he will inherit penalty duties if his legendary captain isn't on the pitch.
Further down the betting VIKTOR GYOKERES also makes appeal at 80/1.
Sweden's decision to sack Jon Dahl Tomasson and replace him with former West Ham and Brighton boss Graham Potter proved to be a masterstroke as they thrashed Ukraine 3-0 in their play-off semi-final before beating Poland 3-2 five days later to qualify for only their second World Cup since 2006.
Much of that success was down to Gyokeres' hat-trick in the semi and late winner in the final.
The Arsenal striker found form just when his club and country needed him this calendar year, with 19 of his 25 goals this season coming since late December. Over a longer period he has thrived for Sweden, scoring 13 goals in his last 12 competitive internationals.
His team will fancy their chances of getting out of Group F, which contains an underwhelming Netherlands side, Japan and Tunisia. Gyokeres should be backed to continue his fine record against some weak defences, continuing the flat-track bully reputation he has built in recent years.
One of the main beneficiaries of Marcelo Bielsa's reign as Uruguay boss has been DARWIN NUNEZ.
Nunez has netted 10 times in 22 international appearances under Bielsa and will be operating as the vocal point in typically attack minded Bielsa side. At the Copa America, Uruguay topped the charts for chances created and shots.
At the World Cup, the South Americans are in Group H alongside Spain, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde and could get amongst the goals, especially against the latter two.
At 80/1 (1, 2, 3, 4 places - 1/4 odds), Nunez is worth a punt to finish as TOP SCORER this summer.
I fancy Columbia to score a few goals this summer.
The bulk of the reasoning is in World Cup Group H’s preview but here’s the headlines.
They scored 28 goals in qualification (2nd most in CONMEBOL), 12 at the Copa America (1st) and crucially seem to have a settled front three.
LUIS DIAZ, James Rodriguez and LUIS SUAREZ (not that one) are the trio expected to start this summer. Both the former and the latter appeal in the TOP SCORER market at 50/1 and 60/1 respectively.
Diaz 26 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich this season and netted seven in qualification. He’s never been to a World Cup but has scored six goals in 14 Copa America appearances.
Suarez only started one game in qualification but netted four goals. Four goals Luis? That's insane. And across the last two league campaigns, he’s scored 55 goals in the Spanish second tier and Portuguese top flight.
The only snag is neither are expected to take penalties.
While not a complicated pick, I'm not one to shy away from the front of this betting market, with KYLIAN MBAPPE TO BE TOP SCORER yet again most certainly worth backing, even at 6/1, after waltzing to the award four years ago.
He is his sides penalty taker, he's the spearhead of an insanely talented supporting cast featuring Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Rayan Cherki and Désiré Doué among others, so will get ample chances to add to his World Cup scoring tally.
He has 12 to his name in just 14 games across two tournaments, which is insane, and needs only another five to become the World Cup's all-time top scorer, a record currently held by Germany striker Miroslav Klose (16).
Mbappe could feast against Iraq and possibly a very attack-minded Norway before a favourable last 32 clash, with the bonus about backing a player for one of the favourites being the increased chance they go deep into the tournament and thus get more games.
Fresh from another sensational scoring season for Real Madrid, netting 43 in 56 appearances across all competitions and scooping up the Pachichi (La Liga top scorer) and the Champions League top scorer gong, he looks well placed to defend his Golden Boot crown and again fire France towards glory.
A little further down the betting and RAPHINHA looks overpriced TO BE TOP SCORER at 33/1. He will be Brazil's biggest goal threat but is priced behind Vinicius Jr who never produces for his country.
The Barcelona winger had an injury-hit season meaning he's light on workload this season, but still managed to score 21 times in 33 appearances, averaging 0.84 goals per 90 in La Liga, while for his nation he top scored in qualifying with five.
He is on penalty duty for Brazil too which is excellent for us, as is the group his side are in, with one of the lowest-ranked teams at the tournament in Haiti and a Scotland side who will afford Brazil plenty of the ball and thus plenty of shooting opportunities, as well as a Morocco side in disarray after their excellent manager walked away in March.
The bottom line here is we are getting Brazil's chief goal threat at 33/1, with the former Leeds star taking his goalscoring to the next level since moving to Spain.
Finally, in a true three-tiered approach we'll round off with a triple figure price in BREEL EMBOLO TO BE WORLD CUP TOP SCORER at 125/1.
We have seen some big priced players snatch place money over the last few editions of the World Cup, with Olivier Giroud (66/1), Denis Cheryshev (200/1+) and James Rodriguez (150/1+) all earning place returns, with the latter winning the gong in 2014. Wesley Sneijder was likely another triple-figure price to place in 2010 too but I couldn't find any odds to confirm that.
Ebolo is Switzerland's starting striker and has developed his game impressively over the last few years, culminating in him scoring four times in six qualifiers en route to thew US.
In fact, since returning, probably too early, from injury for Euro 2024, Embolo has scored 10 goals in 17 appearances for his nation.
Fresh off a good season for Rennes where he scored eight times and averaged 0.43 xG per 90, he looks well-placed for a good tournament for a dangerous Switzerland who, crucially, have a potentially very good group for Embolo to rack up a few goals.
They are in Group B alongside Qatar, Bosnia and Canada, with all three sides having questionable defences, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see the Swiss and Embolo make light work of their opponents en route to topping the group.
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
- World Cup betting guide
- Group A: Mexico; South Africa; South Korea; Czechia
- Group B: Canada; Bosnia; Qatar; Switzerland
- Group C: Brazil; Morocco; Haiti; Scotland
- Group D: USA; Paraguay; Australia; Turkiye
- Group E: Germany; Curacao; Ivory Coast; Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands; Japan; Sweden; Tunisia
- Group G: Belgium; Egypt; Iran; New Zealand
- Group H: Spain; Cape Verde; Saudi Arabia; Uruguay
- Group I: France; Senegal; Iraq; Norway
- Group J: Argentina; Algeria; Austria; Jordan
- Group K: Portugal; DR Congo; Uzbekistan; Colombia
- Group L: England; Croatia; Ghana; Panama
- Outright preview
- Golden Ball preview
- Specials preview
- FREE World Cup wallchart
- FREE World Cup sweepstake kit
- World Cup: All you need to know
- Fixtures, results and live scores
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