Jonny Clayton (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)

PDC World Darts Championship: Day 12 predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Wed December 29, 2021 · 4y ago

The PDC World Darts Championship continues on Wednesday so here's Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

The third round concludes at the Ally Pally today while there are also two last 16 matches involving Gerwyn Price, Dirk van Duijvenbode, Jonny Clayton and Michael Smith. All six games over two sessions have been previewed...

Darts betting tips: World Championship day 12

1pt over 14.5 180s in Aspinall v Rydz at evens (Sky Bet)

1pt Price to win and van Duijvenbode to hit most 180s at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt both players to hit 6+ 180s and there be 4+ ton+ checkouts in Clayton v Smith at 9/4 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Wednesday December 29: Evening session

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
Third/Fourth Round Format: Best of seven sets

Gary Anderson (1/2) v Ian White (13/8)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 9-6 (TV: 2-3)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 0-2 (TV: 0-1)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.25 – 94.8
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.26 – 0.25
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 35.25% – 27.81%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 11.29% – 8.44%

This is just the third time that Ian White is featuring in the post-Christmas part of the World Championship and the first since he last reached round three back in 2017 whereas Gary Anderson is making the return journey for the 11th time in a row.

Diamond was clearly a relieved man to overcome Chris Landman 3-1 in a match where his clinical doubling of 55% was the main difference but he'll probably need to pick up the scoring part of his game against the Flying Scotsman even if he isn't quite the force of old.

Anderson overcame Adrian Lewis 3-1 almost two weeks ago so his below-par performance stats of a 93.74 average and three 180s don't really hold too much relevance now, although we could perhaps have expected something closer to his A-game considering the buzz that surrounded the contest.

Even though he vowed to take the game seriously again during last year's run to the final, that resurgence hasn't materialised and unfortunately we are seeing the A-game less and less as his career wares on. He's suffered early exits at every major this season, rarely troubling the 100 average mark in any of them.

One of those defeats came in the first round of the World Grand Prix to White, who has beaten him in both meetings this year, and although it was a scrappy contest he did eventually hold his nerve in a farcical deciding leg after seven missed match darts.

This could be another clash of similar edginess or Anderson could come out all guns blazing and roll back the years. It'd lean towards it going at least six sets with perhaps White falling over the line.

Prediction: 3-4

Gerwyn Price (2/7) v Dirk van Duijvenbode (13/5) (R4)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 12-1 (TV: 4-0)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 1-1 (TV: 1-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 5-1 (1-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 99.23 – 96.52
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.29 – 0.38
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 42.41% – 33.56%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 11.43% – 12.09%

Gerwyn Price's world title run last year included a couple of huge deciding leg scares against Brendan Dolan and Daryl Gurney but the way he handled the pressure of a crowd willing him to fail against a fired-up Kim Huybrechts two nights ago showed his champion spirit.

The Iceman obviously knows how to win titles as a pantomime villain but sections of the fans crossed the line on this occasion to the point where it would have even taken the shine off a Huybrechts victory had the decider gone the other way.

It's incredible how he holds his nerve together with all that jeering on every missed double, and even his treble-less throws were routinely cheered in the latter stages of a pulsating contest and we can expect a similar atmosphere against popular Dutchman Dirk van Duijvenbode, who won't need any excuse to whip up the crowd.

Price averaged just over 92 and threw eight maximums in 34 legs of darts (0.24 per leg) which is some way short of his seasonal stats, but he did land five 100+ checkouts and hit almost 50% of his doubles.

We know he works his way through the gears as tournaments progress but he will probably need to improve his level against Aubergenius, who showed his own fighting spirit to come from 3-0 down to beat Ross Smith 4-3 last time out.

Van Duijvenbode has the highest 180 per leg ratio on the circuit (0.38) and so far this tournament he's managed 18 in 52 legs (0.34) but his finishing has let him down so far, pinning just 28 of his 97 attempts (28.87%).

Price is the superior in all departments other than the maximums and that should see him prevail with more dominance than against Huybrechts.

CLICK HERE to back Price to win and van Duijvenbode to hit most 180s with Sky Bet

Prediction: 4-2

Jonny Clayton (8/15) v Michael Smith (6/4) (R4)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 3-7 (TV: 1-3)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 1-0 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 6-2 (4-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 98.49 – 96.49
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.27 – 0.29
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 42.06% – 36.32%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 13.07% – 10.77%

If Jonny Clayton and Michael Smith can bring the performance levels we saw from them in the last two rounds, then this should be an absolute cracker to end the night.

The Ferret has the highest overall average so far with 103.17 having exceeded three figures in both matches while Bully Boy ranks next behind him out of the surviving players with 99.83 thanks mainly to his tournament high of 106.32 against Ron Meulenkamp - although he did also manage an impressive 97.42 in a hard-fought win over Willie O'Connor.

Clayton has weighed in with 15 180s in just 36 legs (0.41 per leg) but Smith has a marginal lead on that front with 16 in the same amount of game time (0.44 per leg) so we can expect plenty of maximums tonight.

We could see a feast of 100+ checkouts as well considering they already have 13 between them, with Clayton contributing most with eight including a high of 132. Although this ridiculous percentage of winning legs with ton+ outs (20.83%) can't realistically be maintained, he does have one of the highest seasonal percentage of 13.07% on the circuit which is made more impressive by just how many legs he's won in a title-laden year.

I am hoping Smith comes through having tipped him each-way for the title at the start and I've so far seen nothing to sway my opinion as he's crucially managed to stay focused and seemingly maintain that all new, calmer body language on stage that has served him so well in recent months.

But win or lose I think there's more than enough evidence and logic to expect plenty of sets with 100+ checkouts and 180s galore.

CLICK HERE to back both players hitting six+ 180s and there being four+ 100+ checkouts in the match with Sky Bet

Prediction: 3-4

SL Acca: De Sousa, Humphries & Smith all to win at 5/1 with Sky Bet

Wednesday December 29: Afternoon session

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1200 GMT)
Third round format: Best of seven sets

Jose De Sousa (1/4) v Alan Soutar (3/1)

Overall Head-to-Head: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Head-to-Head: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 3-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 97.91 – 94.23
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.34 – 0.24
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 37.98% – 36.14%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 11.38% – 12.29%

Alan Soutar is responsible for one of the great comebacks of the tournament so far but it certainly put anyone who backed him, including myself, through a rollarcoaster of emotions.

After about 20 minutes he was on the brink of a swift defeat having lost eight of the first nine legs but over an hour of marathon darts later he'd survived eight match darts and missed two of his own before eventually beating Mensur Suljovic 6-4 with a stunning 144 checkout.

The firefighter, who returned to his day job on Christmas Day before his return back to the Ally Pally, averaged 91 and weighed in with four 180s but will need to get closer to his seasonal average of 94 to trouble Jose de Sousa over this format.

The Special One also had to come from two sets down to defeat Jason Lowe but it would have been so much easier had he not missed doubles in the deciding legs of both the opening two sets.

De Sousa raced through the next three sets for the loss of just two legs, averaging 96 and throwing seven maximums at a rate of 0.33 per leg which is somewhere near his usual standard following a lean patch in recent tournaments.

Prediction: 4-1

Dave Chisnall (10/11) v Luke Humphries (10/11)

DAVE CHISNALL TESTED POSITIVE FOR COVID-19 AND IS NOW WITHDRAWN FROM THE TOURNAMENT

Overall Head-to-Head: 5-1 (TV: 2-1)
2021 Head-to-Head: 0-1 (TV: 0-1)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.45 – 95.55
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.32 – 0.26
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 40.08% – 38.61%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 11.21% – 11.92%

As a general rule I tend to avoid predicting the outcome of a match involving Dave Chisnall because you can never be too sure which Chizzy will turn up.

His performances on the Pro Tour this season have epitomised inconsistency and while he's thrown in no shortage of 100+ averages - including a ridiculous 120 back in June - he's failed to reach a single final. On the big stage he's enjoyed three quarter-final runs but suffered two early exits, including last month's Players Championship Finals.

One of those quarter-finals came at the UK Open, where he beat Peter Wright, Danny Noppert and Alan Soutar with 100+ averages before agonisingly losing 10-9 against....Luke Humphries.

That was their only meeting this year and also Cool Hand's only victory over Chisnall at the sixth attempt, helping him reach his maiden televised final before finishing runner-up to James Wade.

Humphries went on to lose three Pro Tour finals to Gerwyn Price, Jose de Sousa and Peter Wright so there's no doubt he's firmly knocking on the door to get his first senior title sooner than later.

He loves this stage having twice reached the quarter-finals in front of a crowd and looked pretty impressive when cruising to a 3-0 victory over a hapless Rowby-John Rodriguez for the loss of just two legs with a 92.91 average and three 180s.

Chisnall also whitewashed Mike De Decker but did so with both players weirdly averaging 96.43 while he hit four maximums in 13 legs. Obviously that 180 per leg ratio is slightly less than what Humphries managed but over the season he's been significantly more prolific and I think he'll come out on top on that front, even if the former World Youth champion wins the match.

CLICK HERE to back Humphries to win and Chisnall hit most 180s with Sky Bet

Prediction: 2-4

Nathan Aspinall (8/11) v Callan Rydz (11/10)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 1-1 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 0-1 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-2 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 96.41 – 94.78
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.31 – 0.24
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 40.72% – 50%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 10.58% – 10.39%

Nathan Aspinall was one of my outsiders to win the title but I can't pretend it wasn't dispiriting to see him struggle so much with his strapped arm during an arduous victory over Joe Murnan last time out.

The Asp, who is defying doctors orders to rest and recover from a bout of tendonitis in his elbow, had to survive a match dart against the rank outsider before battling through with a 93.15 but despite the pain he did still manage to fire in eight maximums in just 22 legs and also produce a pair of 100+ checkouts, including a stunner from 145.

There were plenty of flashes of brilliance but when he got in a rut, it took him a while to get out of it and a far better player than Murnan will punish a similar performance a lot more severely.

Callan Rydz certainly falls into that category and he'll be feeling on a crest of a wave having stormed into round three with two victories for the loss of just five legs.

The Bedlington ace eased past Yuki Yamada 3-0 with a 91.32 average but upped the ante to 102.73 during a surprisingly one-sided 3-0 victory over Brendan Dolan that owed much to his ruthless finishing of 64.29% as well as his opponent missing 10 of his 13 attempts at doubles.

Rydz, who won two Pro Tour titles during a tremendous season, has now thrown 10 maximums in 23 legs which is a far greater ratio than his 2021 average of 0.24 but you'd still expect Aspinall to edge that particular battle.

It's a very tough match to call given the Stockport man's condition but he does at least have the battling qualities and character to cope.