The William Hill World Darts Championship continues on Thursday so here's Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.
It's the final day of pre-Christmas action so any losers today certainly won't enjoy listening to Chris Rea on their drive home from the Ally Pally. Here we preview all eight matches across both sessions...
Darts betting tips: World Championship day nine
1pt Heta to win, score over 3.5 180s and have a checkout of over 96.5 at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Alan Soutar to beat Mensur Suljovic at 11/10 (General)
1pt over 9.5 180s in Clemens v Williams at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Rob Cross to win and hit most 180s at 2/1 (General)
0.5pts on Sporting Life's Cross v Barney RAB at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
SL Acca: Dobey & Cross to win and hit most 180s plus Noppert (-1.5 sets) at 9/1
Thursday December 23: Afternoon session
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1200 GMT)
- Format: Best of five sets (Round 2)
Damon Heta (4/11) v Luke Woodhouse (11/5)
- Head to Head (TV): 2-1 (0-0)
- 2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 96.12 – 92.16
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.3 – 0.22
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 35.61% – 26.67%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 12.52% – 12.76%
Damon Heta may not have made many headlines on the big stages this season but he's been steadily climbing the rankings with a string of fine results and performances on the Pro Tour, so he's a worthy favourite to see off Luke Woodhouse in today's opener.
The Australian has reached two Players Championship finals in 2021 - losing to both Jonny Clayton and Gerwyn Price noless - while his average of 96.12 is the 14th highest of the circuit and his 180s per leg ratio is in the top 10.
His early exits at the European Championship and Players Championship Finals came at the hands of Nathan Aspinall and Peter Wright respectively so he'll be keen to set up a revenge mission with the latter should he come through this test against Woodhouse, who battled past James Wilson 3-1 on Monday night with a creditable average of 91.52 that's similar to his seasonal mark.
The Englishman will need to raise his level and hope he catches Heta on an off day - just like when he lost to Danny Baggish in the opening round of last year's World Championship.
Heta wins 12.52% of his legs with a 100+ checkout - which is a very strong mark for the elite players - so I quite fancy the Player Performance bet of him to win, score over 3.5 180s and have a checkout of over 96.5 at 11/8.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-1
Click here for a 10/1 Sporting Life RAB for Cross v Barney
Brendan Dolan (8/11) v Callan Rydz (11/10)
- Head to Head (TV): 2-3 (0-0)
- 2021 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
- 2021 Titles (TV): 1-2 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.66 – 94.78
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.16 – 0.24
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 37.59% – 50%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 9.81% – 10.39 %
This is one of the toughest matches to call of the day as a resurgent Brendan Dolan takes on rising star Callan Rydz for the right to face 10th seed Nathan Aspinall.
The History Maker, who took Gerwyn Price all the way to a deciding leg in last year's third round, won his eighth PDC title at a Players Championship event back in March while he finished runner-up to Ross Smith in another one in July on the same day he beat Michael Smith and Jeff Smith.
He's continued to impress with numerous 100+ averages during the winter before stunning Price and Jose de Sousa en route to the semi-finals of the Players Championship Finals at the end of November only to run out of steam against Ryan Searle.
Whereas Dolan has rolled back the years, Callan Rydz has enjoyed a breakthrough season. He firstly beat Jonny Clayton in a deciding leg of a Players Championship final in February to win his maiden PDC title before doubling his tally in another close final against Gabriel Clemens in October.
The Geordie star enjoyed a superb run to the World Matchplay quarter-finals, beating Rob Cross along the way, and although he suffered early exits in his last three majors, he did average 100 in defeat to James Wade at the Players Championship Finals.
He brushed Yuki Yamada aside here 3-0 with an average of 91.32 but this will obviously be a much tougher test and you can really make a case for either.
Scoreline Prediction: 2-3
Mensur Suljovic (8/11) v Alan Soutar (11/10)
- Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 93.76 – 94.23
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.18 – 0.24
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 41.16% – 36.14%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 9.42% – 12.29%
"I'm sure there are 90% of folk watching at home, they probably turned over and watched Corrie or something - I would have done. If that's darts...I'm offski."
Those were the words of Gary Anderson after Mensur Suljovic last 'graced' this stage following that infamous encounter 12 months ago so hopefully fellow Scotsman Alan Soutar will be able to prevent viewers from switching over to Tipping Point this afternoon.
Suljovic has endured a pretty quiet season by his previous standards, hardly challenging for titles and struggling to produce 100+ averages on a regular basis. Even during his run to the European Championship quarter-finals he barely averaged above 90 while he was battered 10-5 by Fallon Sherrock with an 84 average at the Grand Slam and then recorded just 78 in a 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Callan Rydz at the Players Championship Finals.
His seasonal average is actually less than Soutar's impressive 94.23 while his 180s per leg ratio is also inferior, so you've got to fancy the possibility of an upset in this one.
The fireman's debut season on the PDC circuit has seen him beat the likes of Raymond van Barneveld and Stephen Bunting at the UK Open while he also overcame Peter Wright and Krzysztof Ratajski in a quarter-final run at a Players Championship event last month.
I did expect him to wipe the floor with Diogo Portela last time out only for him to stumble over the line 3-2 with an average just below 90 but now he has that experience under his belt, I fancy him to do a number on Suljovic.
Scoreline Prediction: 1-3
Jose de Sousa (1/3) v Jason Lowe (23/10)
- Head to Head (TV): 2-0 (0-0)
- 2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2021 Titles (TV): 3-0 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 97.91 – 92.98
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.34 – 0.17
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 37.98% – 20%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 11.38% – 13.14 %
It's been a season of two halves for Jose de Sousa and arrives at the Ally Pally flying somewhat under the radar when we talk about title contenders.
The Special One broke 180 records galore and landed a nine-darter en route to the Premier League final on debut while he also added three more Players Championship titles to his collection between April and June.
De Sousa was also at the top of the averages and maximum hitting charts for much of the season - not to mention the unofficial miscounting rankings - but over recent months he's struggled to maintain that kind of relentless form.
That's not to say he's been playing badly - he still reached the quarter-finals of the European Championship and the Players Championship finals while he lost a deciding leg to Peter Wright in the second round of the Grand Slam of Darts.
Based on the season stats comparison with Jason Lowe, you'd think he was a shoe-in to win with the most 180s but let me warn you that he's only managed 16 in his last 77 legs of televised darts which works out at around 0.21 180s per leg. Lowe hit five in just 10 legs during his 3-0 demolition of Daniel Larsson on Tuesday.
The Englishman did stun Michael Smith on this stage last year and gave Gerwyn Price a mini scare at the recent Players Championship Finals so it could be an awkward tie that I'm not really confident about dabbling in.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-1
Evening session
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
- Format: Best of five sets (Round 2)
Danny Noppert (1/4) v Jason Heaver (3/1)
- Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 96.51 – 90.59
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.27 – 0.25
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 44.23% – 23.53%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 11.8% – 9.06%
Danny Noppert has yet to enjoy a lengthy run at the Ally Pally but this year could be his time having seemingly combined his rich potential with a new-found stage presence for the first time in his PDC career.
Back in October, Noppie beat Michael van Gerwen en route to the World Grand Prix semi-finals, where he eventually came up short to eventual champion Jonny Clayton, while he averaged over 90 in three of his four matches which is no mean feat for double-start set-play darts.
Then at the European Championship he averaged comfortably over 100 during his victories over Krzysztof Ratajski and Ryan Searle before losing an absolute cracker with Nathan Aspinall 10-9 in the quarter-finals.
There's a lot more belief about his game, especially on TV, while his seasonal average is inside the top 15.
He should make light work of Jason Heaver, who came through a low-quality clash with Gordon Mathers on Sunday in which he averaged just 84 and only threw a couple of 180s. However, he's usually more prolific than that with his maximums and probably suffered some debut nerves, so it might be a risk to assume Noppert will dominate on that front. Take your pick between a 3-0 or 3-1 win.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-0
Gabriel Clemens (8/15) v Lewy Williams (6/4)
- Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
- 2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
- 2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 92.92 – 91.47
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.28 – 0.28
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 33.5% – 34.33%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 10.38% – 10.99%
Considering Lewy Williams missed his first six darts at double on his World Championship debut, he did pretty well to end up with an average of 93.05 and a checkout percentage of 41% during his 3-0 victory over Toyokazu Shibata.
The 19-year-old was always going to win that clash with very little pressure but the experience was a perfect way to get a taste of the atmosphere prior to a much stiffer challenge with Gabriel Clemens.
Williams has got bags of potential and even at this stage of his career, his seasonal average and 180s per leg ratios are highly impressive while he's already beaten the likes of Dimitri Van Den Ben Bergh, Michael Van Gerwen, Nathan Aspinall and Jose De Sousa on the circuit in 2021. He almost knocked the latter out of the European Championship as well before suffering a narrow loss.
Clemens is now mostly known for being the player Fallon Sherrock hit that 170 checkout against and that probably won't change for a while unless he finally embarks on a lengthy run at a major tournament.
He's suffered a string of early exits on TV this year and his form in the floor tournaments hasn't been too hot either apart from when he reached a Players Championship final back in October.
We could easily see four or five sets in this one and given their 180 per leg ratios of 0.28 apiece, it makes sense to go high on the maximums. It's 11/10 that there's over 9.5 and 7/4 for over 10.5.
Scoreline Prediction: 2-3
Rob Cross (8/15) v Raymond van Barneveld (6/4)
- Head to Head (TV): 7-2, 1 draw (4-0, 1 draw)
- 2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-2 (0-0)
- 2021 Titles (TV): 2-1 (1-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 96.52 – 94.7
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.23 – 0.23
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 39.36% – 50%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 10.6% – 12.5%
A clash of the former world champions is undoubtedly the most eye-catching clash this evening but the Voltage could shock the Barney Army into silence.
Over the past few months Rob Cross has looked much more like the player that saw him win the World Championship and the World Matchplay prior to his alarming slump in form, and back in October he beat Michael van Gerwen to become European champion for the second time in his career.
He followed that up by winning a Players Championship title while his stats have been climbing pretty sharply during the winter, posting 18 ton+ averages in his last 46 games and 13 others have been in the high 90s.
It is great to see a buoyant Raymond van Barneveld back on this stage compared to the despondent one whose retirement year ended in misery and while he did manage to win a Players Championship event way back in February, he's not really producing the kind of form that Cross is doing on a consistent basis.
Barney may have won both their meetings this season in floor events but he's not actually managed to beat Cross on TV before in five previous attempts - the best was a Premier League draw back in 2018.
He looked very fluent against Lourence Ilagan when averaging 97 last time out but he was put under zero pressure and it'll be interesting to see how he'll cope with a barrage of power scoring and clinical finishing from Cross.
However, Barney did make high 90s averages in defeat against Michael Smith and Gary Anderson in Grand Slam of Darts group stages and a 95 against Michael van Gerwen at a chilly Minehead for the Players Championship Finals so there's no reason why he can't give us moments of high-class magic.
I'm siding with Cross to win and hit most 180s at 2/1 given his 180s per leg over the last two TV events has been superior and although in all competitions this season they are both at 0.23, the Hastings man has sustained that over a lot more legs and under the pressure of more major events.
If you are expecting a thriller then you might be interested in an ambitious 10/1 RAB I've come up with below, which requires Voltage to average 100, both players to hit a 100+ checkout each and four+ 180s apiece.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-1
Click here for a 10/1 Sporting Life RAB for Cross v Barney
Chris Dobey (2/7) v Rusty-Jake Rodriguez (13/5)
- Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
- 2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
- 2021 Titles (TV): 2-0 (0-0)
- PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 97.41 – 92.47
- PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.32 – 0.17
- PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 35.51% – 38%
- PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 11.63% – 4% (TV matches)
Although I've firmly backed Michael van Gerwen to win the title, I am wary of Chris Dobey in this section of the draw and he should come through what I expect will be an entertaining clash with plenty of 180s.
As I wrote in my pre-tournament preview: "Dobey's seasonal average of 97.41 is only bettered by the big four and Jose de Sousa and while he’s not demonstrated that enough times on TV, it shows he is capable of serious levels. He won his first ever PDC title after such a long wait back in July and made that two in early November, just to underline how his confidence is growing.
"His stage results at the Grand Slam and Players Championship Finals were admittedly poor, but he did average 104 in the latter during a very strange defeat to William O’Connor.
"The Northumberland star has reached the fourth round twice before and this arena seems to bring the best out of him and he’s got the experience now to handle the occasion."
One stat I didn't mention was that he's among the most prolific maximum hitters on the tour with a 180 per leg ratio of 0.32 while rising star Rusty-Jake Rodriguez managed six of them in just 17 legs against Ben Robb last time out.
The 20-year-old Austrian also averaged 94 as he showed zero sign of nerves on his Ally Pally debut so he's definitely capable of taking at least one set off Dobey.
It's 6/5 that we see over 9.5 180s in the match but those who expect Dobey to run away with it and Rodriguez to struggle against superior opposition may prefer to take evens on him winning and firing in the most maximums at evens.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-1
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