Gerwyn Price

PDC World Darts Championship: Day 10 predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Carl Fletcher

Darts

Mon December 27, 2021 · 4y ago

The William Hill World Darts Championship resumes on Monday so here's Carl Fletcher's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

There are now just 32 players remaining as the tournament heads into the best-of-seven set third round and tonight there's six matches split over two sessions, featuring Gerwyn Price, Jonny Clayton, James Wade and Michael Smith. We preview them all...

Darts betting tips: World Championship day 10

1pt Gerwyn Price to win 4-2 or 4-3 at 15/8 (Sky Bet)

2pts Michael Smith to win & hit the most 180’s at 4/6 (Sky Bet)

1pt Jonny Clayton to win, hit over 5.5 180’s & checkout over 108.5 at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

SL Acca: Hempel to win, Wade (-1.5 sets), M Smith (-1.5 sets) & Huybrechts (+2.5 sets) at 11/1 with Sky Bet

Monday December 27: Afternoon session

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1200 GMT)
Third-round format: Best of seven sets

Ross Smith (10/11) vs Dirk Van Duijvenbode (10/11)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 2-2 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.41 – 96.52
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.32 – 0.38
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 50% – 33.56%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 13.04% – 12.09%

Dirk Van Duijvenbode was enjoying the form of his life towards the end of 2020 and he proved that was no fluke when he reached the quarter-final of this event last year where lost to eventual runner-up Gary Anderson.

Whilst it’s fair to say that he’s not quite managed to perform to that level on the whole in 2021 he did win a Players Championship event on the floor. That victory was at Players Championship eleven where other than defeating Krzysztof Ratajski in the Last 16 he didn’t beat another seed all day. You can only beat who’s in front of you and that’s what he duly did on the day. He’s backed this up by having further good runs too this season.

‘The Aubergenius’ as he is known is the best 180 hitter on tour this year, hitting them at a rate of 0.38 per leg. He certainly seemed settled on stage in his opening match this week, when he hit eight 180’s in defeating Boris Koltsov 3-2.

His opponent Ross Smith also came through a bit of a gruelling game in the last round as he went into ‘extra time’ to defeat Stephen Bunting 3-2, hitting seven 180’s, checking out 167 and notching up a ten darter in a pulsating match. That was a much improved performance on his first round match and 3-0 success against Canadian Jeff Smith.

Smith is also a huge 180 hitter and his 180 per leg ratio of 0.32 isn’t far behind the standard set in this statistical field by Dirk Van Duijvenbode, Dimitri Van Den Bergh and José De Sousa.

This really is a 50/50 call and as the betting suggests the bookies are struggling to separate the two also. The head to head reads 2-2 and although two of these meetings were way back in 2013 the other two were last year where both players won a game apiece.

Whilst I’d slightly favour Ross Smith at present, who’s on the better upward curve I think the safer bet is to concentrate on the 180 market where we could see a glut of them, especially if the match goes deep.

Predicted Scoreline: 4-3

Michael Smith (2/7) vs William O’Connor (13/5)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 7-1 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 2-0 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 2-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 96.49 – 91.61
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.29 – 0.19
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 36.32% – 39.13%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 10.77% – 9.88%

William O’Connor checked out the Big Fish in his last match against Glen Durrant. This was done in the opening leg and despite a bright start by ‘Duzza’ this went a large way to knocking the stuffing out of him as he ran out a facile 3-0 winner.

On the whole that match was a bit of a damp squib and a game O’Connor struggled to raise his game. In stark contrast his first game versus Danny Lauby Jnr was a real high quality contest and required him to dig deep.

He’ll be looking to progress to the Last 16 for the first time ever, surpassing his 2019 performance where he was eliminated at the stage. He’s capable of doing so but he’ll need to produce some stunning arrers’ if he’s to match his opponent.

‘Bully Boy’ was majestic in his second round victory, setting the standard for this years event with a 106.32 average and hitting 75% of his doubles as he blew away Ron Meulenkamp 3-0.

The 2019 runner-up has long been touted as a pretender to the crown and widely tipped to become World Champion at some point. The question is, it that year going to be this year?

He certainly will feel like he has a point to prove. He was bitterly disappointed to lose in the second to Jason Lowe last year and that was arguably one of the reasons he was overlooked for the Premier League this year.

He voiced his disapproval earlier in the year and has been on a mission to prove the selectors wrong. He’s won a couple of floor events and recently reached the Semi-Finals of the Grand Slam of Darts beating MVG in impressive fashion in the Quarter-Final.

O’Connor has been improved form of late himself and is certainly capable of winning a set or two to keep the game interesting.

CLICK HERE to back Michael Smith to win and hit most 180s with Sky Bet

Predicted Scoreline: 4-1

Florian Hempel (4/9) vs Raymond Smith (7/4)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 93.91 – 94.15 (Worlds only)
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.26 – 0.3 (World only)
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 43.06% – 57.58% (Worlds only)
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 12.45% – 21.05% (Worlds only)

The term surprise packages is probably too strong a term to use to describe the exploits of these two so far but you sort of get the point being made.

Florian Hempel, victorious over Martin Schindler caused the biggest shock of the tournament so far when he defeated Dimitri Van Den Bergh 3-1 in the second round. In that game his finishing was superb, he came to the board on a finish of 104 or below 10 times and checked out on 9 occasions. In fact throughout the tournaments so far all finishes seem alike. He’s checked out 18 of his 34 opportunities at a finish and his conversion record on treble-treble-double finishes (131-160) is 50%, not much worse then his record than on his single double combo finishes, which is 60%.

His tournament average of 93.78 and 180 per leg ratio of 0.25 per leg are very much in line with his seasonal data, it’s the fact he’s just doing the right things and the right time.

Raymond Smith has also come through two matches to reach this stage. He defeated Tipton thrower Jamie Hughes 3-1 in the opening round in a high quality contest where both players averaged around the mid-nineties.

He then comfortably beat the number 28 seed Devon Petersen 3-0 in round two. Last year that would have been a major shock but unfortunately for the likeable South African his form hasn’t quite been the same this year.

Having said that it was still a good display by Smith, with a 93.25 average. His doubling for the event is 57.58% and he himself has registered four ton plus checkouts to reach this stage.

Given what we’ve seen so far from both this could be a game of high quality finishing. The reward for winning here is a place in the Last 16 against the victor of Steve Lennon & Mervyn King in the wide open Quarter Two of the draw. I think there’s more to come from Hempel and we’re yet to see the limit of his abilities. I’d take him to come out on top here.

Predicted Scoreline: 4-2

Evening session

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
Third-Round Format: Best of seven sets

James Wade (8/15) vs Vincent Van Der Voort (6/4)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 16-7 (TV: 7-1)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 0-1 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 1-0 (1-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 95.9 – 92.81
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.21 – 0.21
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 46.82% – 32.52%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 13.51% – 12.22%

If you had to pick a seed from their opening match who looked completely out of sorts then James Wade would probably be your selection. His average of 83.74 was the lowest winning average of the second round but despite this he always looked the most likely winner as he defeated Maik Kuivenhoven 3-1.

His performance was just off and it looked a struggle throughout. He’s normally so reliable on Double 10 and Double 20 but his checkout percentage on these were just 33.33% and 30% respectively and despite never being the biggest 180 hitter, you would’ve expected him to at least hit one but he didn’t.

If he replicates that performance here he’s in big trouble but if there’s one player capable of bouncing back and putting that display behind him it’s the three time Semi-Finalist in this event and current UK Open champion.

Van Der Voort on the other hand won 3-0 against Englishman Adam Hunt. On the face if it you’d expect that it was a comfortable night for the Dutch giant but don’t let the scoreline deceive you as Adam Hunt missed a dart at the double to win the opening two sets and was arguably the better player in the early exchanges. Whilst Van Der Voort closed out the game very well in the final set the damage had already been done.

Vincent is a dual Quarter-Finalist himself in this event back in 2011 and 2015. These two are in fact stalwarts of this event and have actually met twice at the Last 32 stage before. On each occasion it was ‘The Machine’ who came through by the same Scoreline, 4-0. Whilst I don’t envisage that correct score here I do believe that if Wade turns up with his ruthless finishing game he’ll be too strong for Van Der Voort, who can sometimes get frustrated up on the big stage.

Predicted Scoreline: 4-2

Gerwyn Price (1/5) vs Kim Huybrechts (7/2)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 4-5 (TV: 3-0)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 5-0 (1-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 99.23 – 94.7
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.29 – 0.23
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 42.41% – 38.05%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 11.43% – 14.91 %

Kim Huybrechts has been playing much better in this second half of 2021 and looked back to his best. He actually commented in recent interviews that he’s been practicing much better than he ever had before.

It was evident in his game too. 27 wins in his last 38 games dating back to the beginning of October, he’s notched up eight ton plus averages in this period and averaged below 90 on just four occasions.

Unfortunately one of those performances was in his last match against Steve Beaton where although the win was all that mattered. The 3-1 Scoreline arguably flattered him as his average was just 88.71. Luckily for him ‘The Bronzed Adonis’ also under performed, getting nowhere near replicating the standard he set for much of his opening game victory over Fallon Sherrock.

Kim had well documented travel issues in getting to London as tighter restrictions were introduced at the French border. He got here however and I expect that disruption severely affected his display.

He sensibly opted to stay over in England over the festive period and vowed to practice, practice, practice to ensure he can perform to his best tonight.

He’ll need to as he faces no other than defending champion and World Number One Gerwyn Price who started his campaign in decent fashion with a 3-1 victory of Ritchie Edhouse and 101.28 average.

On the face of it that appears to be a fairly routine victory for ‘The Iceman’ but it wasn’t as facile as it looks. He lost the first set and was two nil down in the third but produced two quality finishes of 72 and 130 to turn the game on its head. Much like last year some clutch finishing was the difference.

On a similar note, last year he came through a lot of tight encounters, defeating Jamie Lewis, Brendan Dolan and Daryl Gurney on last set deciders. It could be a similar story tonight as Huybrechts actually leads the head to head 5-4. I’m going for Price to prevail but not by the margin the prices seem to suggest.

CLICK HERE to back Gerwyn Price to win 4-2 or 4-3 with Sky Bet

Predicted Scoreline: 4-3

Jonny Clayton (1/5) vs Gabriel Clemens (7/2)

Overall Head-to-Head (TV): 6-1 (TV: 0-1)
2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 1-0 (TV: 0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 6-0 (4-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 98.49 – 92.92
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.27 – 0.28
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 42.06% – 33.5%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 13.07% – 10.38 %

The nights action concludes with ‘The Ferret’ putting his title credentials on the line against the German giant Gabriel Clemens.

The matches these two came through in their opening matches could not have been more different. Clayton was pushed all the way in his opener.

He trailed exciting young prospect Keane Barry 2-1 in sets and was a 1-0 down in the fourth before reeling off six straight legs in 15, 10, 12, 15, 11 and 14 darts to ruthlessly book his place in the Last 32. It was a scare alright but one he came through with flying colours in the end.

He didn’t play poorly prior to that in fact all his winning legs on the night were won in 15 darts or fewer - hardly surprising given the match had a record number of ton plus finishes for a five set match - and his average of 103.70 was the highest for a good portion of the tournament until ‘Bully Boy’ lay down his marker.

The Masters, Premier League and World Grand Prix winner must be under everyone’s consideration when looking at likely winners.

Clemens opening match couldn’t have been much different. It was a match devoid of much quality and one which his opponent, Lewy Williams just didn’t turn up.

Williams should’ve won the opening leg but missed a plethora of darts at the double to do so. That rattled him and he never recovered, eventually losing 3-0 with just a 75.12 average.

Clemens took advantage, averaging just 86.29 himself but in this competition a wins a win regardless of your average and we all know he’s much better than that and a dangerous player to dismiss.

Last year he defeated defending champion Peter Wright 4-3 in a last leg decider but succumbed to a last leg defeat in the following match to Krzysztof Ratajski. There was a real opportunity for him to progress even further last year but ultimately he came up short.

That is so often the case with him and I expect the same here. Clayton leads their head to head 6-1, winning their only encounter this year and expect him to have way too much here.