PDC World Darts Championship 2023: Day eight predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time
The PDC World Darts Championship continues on Thursday so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.
Now the first round is completed, today's eight games over two sessions all feature seeded players including Gary Anderson, James Wade and Luke Humphries.
Here, we look ahead to all eight matches with seasonal statistics to help...
Darts betting tips: World Championship day eight
1pt Mensur Suljovic to beat Mike de Decker at evens (General)
1pt Dirk van Duijvenbode to win, hit most 180s and highest checkout at 11/10 (Paddy Power)
1pt both players to have one or more 100+ checkouts in Wade v Williams at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Luke Humphries to win, hit most 180s and highest checkout at 6/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
SL Acca: Van Duijvenbode (-1.5 sets), Suljovic & Menzies all to win at 5/1 with Sky Bet
World Championship: Thursday, December 22
AFTERNOON SESSION
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1230 GMT
- Round and Format: Rounds 1 & 2 (Best of five sets)
- In the below stats (courtesy of @CarlyFletch) and his @DartsTracker), the averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only.
Krzysztof Ratajski (1/6) v Danny Jansen (7/2) (R2)
- Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 94.79 - 89.54
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.21 - 0.21
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 37.85% - 47.89%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 11.59% - 9.67%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 21.37% - 20.69%
Krzysztof Ratajski is hot favourite to get his campaign off to a winning start but I wouldn't advise anyone lumping on when you consider his lack of form this season.
The Polish Eagle hasn't necessarily played badly - as you can see from a seasonal average of 94.79 - but his levels are lower than what we'd grown to expect from him and he's not really challenged for titles apart from a run to a Players Championship final back in August.
His performances in majors this year have been disappointing although there were signs of promise when averaging 99 in a very entertaining 10-7 defeat to Luke Humphries at the Players Championship Finals.
If he's around that level again then Danny Jansen will struggle to even win a set, especially when you bare in mind the debutant averaged just 83.42 in a hard-fought win over Paulo Nebrida - but that was some way short of his best.
Probably one to swerve and I wouldn't want to delve into the 180s markets as they are very evenly-matched for maximums per leg this year.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-2
WATCH: Paul Nicholson and Chris Hammer predict the Ally Pally draw!
Ryan Searle (2/9) v Adam Gawlas (3/1) (R1)
- Head to Head (TV): 2-1 (1-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 96.07 - 89.59
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.25 - 0.25
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 39.09% - 36.72%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 13.87% - 12.38%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 22.12 % - 20.21%
Ryan Searle is my outsider to win the top quarter of the draw so I'm not going to hedge my bets yet based on what Adam Gawlas managed to produce during his debut victory over Richie Burnett last time out.
As I wrote in my pre-tournament preview: "The Somerset thrower loves this stage having reached the fourth round in three of his last four appearances – including the 2021 and 2022 editions – and comes to the Ally Pally in great shape having produced a string of high-quality displays at the Players Championship Finals.
"He averaged around 100 in his opening two wins before he was denied by Dirk van Duijvenbode 10-9 in an absolute classic that could so easily have gone the other way despite the Dutchman's 112 average.
"Searle reached three Pro Tour finals in the first few months of 2022, winning one of them, and although he hasn't repeated the feat since and endured a rough run of form in September and October, his performance levels have picked up again and his seasonal average of 96.07 is second only to Price's 97.44 in this section of the draw. For context, Noppert's is 95.44, de Sousa is 94.75 and Wade is 93.53."
Gawlas averaged 85 in his 3-0 triumph over Burnett and will need to play much better than that if he's to pinch a set.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-0
Mensur Suljovic (1/1) v Mike de Decker (8/11) (R2)
- Head to Head (TV): 5-1 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.57- 93.09
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.14 - 0.33
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 39.42% - 27.03%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 9.11% - 9.47%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 8.51% - 24.18%
Mensur Suljovic is one of the few seeded players rated as underdogs ahead of their second-round games and it's hard to argue based on the way he's been sliding down the rankings in recent seasons.
The Gentle forced his way into Premier League back in 2018 and 2019 due to winning a major title and reaching the latter stages of many others, including the 2018 World Matchplay final, but he's done previous little since the turn of 2021.
A crushing second-round exit at the hands of Alan Soutar 12 months ago further damaged his confidence and he failed to qualify for the World Matchplay, World Grand Prix and the European Championship, while he suffered early exits in the Grand Slam and the Players Championship Finals.
His seasonal average of 92.57 is very mediocre compared to many others in this tournament while 180 machine Mike de Decker can boast a slightly higher one of 93.09.
The Belgian, whose seasonal 180 per leg ratio of 0.33 is leagues higher than Suljovic's 0.14, hit eight in just 17 legs against Jeff Smith and also hit 50% of his doubles - but he still 'only' averaged 88.56 and offered his opponent plenty of opportunities to make the match much closer than 3-1.
I don't think Suljovic should be written off just because he's not as good as he was, and besides, it's not as if de Decker has enjoyed a season that will strike much fear into the Austrian, whose slow style has helped him win five of their six previous meetings. Experience may also prove key if it goes to a laboriously tense fifth set.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-2
Dirk van Duijvenbode (1/5) v Karel Sedlacek (10/3) (R2)
- Head to Head (TV): 2-1 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 97.26 - 91.78
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.38 - 0.17
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 40.20% - 31.43%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 10.84% - 13.73%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 35.81% - 11.32%
Dirk van Duijvenbode heads to his fourth World Championship on the back of his finest ever season and you'd expect him to breeze past Karel Selacek and earn himself a spot in the third round.
Aubergenius reached his second major final back in September at the World Series of Darts Finals, where he agonisingly lost a deciding leg to Gerwyn Price in front of his home fans, while he also reached the semi-finals of the European Championship before losing out to Michael Smith despite an average of 101.
There were also quarter-final appearance at the World Matchplay and he also reached the same stage of the recent Players Championship Finals after coming through the match of the season against Ryan Searle, averaging 112 in the process!
His seasonal average of 97.26 is comfortably in the top 10 and his 180 per leg ratio of 0.38 is by far the most prolific on tour, while he's also brought up the 'match treble' in almost 36% of this matches - that's higher than anyone else this year.
Karel Sedlacek is a dangerous opponent and well capable of nicking a set or two, especially if DVD has an off day, but I'd still be fairly confident of the Dutchman winning with the most 180s and high checkout.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-1
EVENING SESSION
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1900 GMT
- Round and Format: Rounds 1 & 2 (Best of five sets)
- In the below stats (courtesy of @CarlyFletch) and his @DartsTracker), the averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only.
Gary Anderson (1/3) v Madars Razma (9/4) (R2)
- Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (1-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 95.70 - 90.94
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.27 - 0.14
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 36.34% - 35.94%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 8.47% - 9.24%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 16.87% - 8.62%
Gary Anderson will tumble out of the world's top 20 if he suffers a first-round exit tonight and based on his lack of success this year, it would hardly feel like much of a shock.
Since reaching the semi-finals 12 months ago, the Flying Scotsman endured a miserable Premier League campaign, suffered early exits in all of the majors he qualified for and failed to reach the Grand Slam of Darts for the first time in the tournament's history.
Anderson did manage to reach a couple of finals - a Players Championship event and the Nordic Darts Masters - only to lose them both and we're now all wondering if he's put in enough practice to do himself justice on this stage yet again.
The 2015 and 2016 champion does tend to save his best for the Ally Pally and hasn't bowed out earlier than the fourth round since before he lifted his first of two titles, while his seasonal average of 95.70 is still significantly higher than Madars Razma, who managed a shade under 90 during his hard-fought victory over Prakash Jiwa that featured just a single 180.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-1
James Wade (2/5) v Jim Williams (7/4) (R2)
- Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-1)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 93.53 - 93.93
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.16 - 0.22
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022):43.06% - 36.84%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 14.29% - 10.25%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 16.89% - 16.33%
James Wade recently won four VIP tickets to watch himself play at this year's World Championship so he'll be hoping to put on a great show tonight.
During one of his numerous charitable ventures for mental health, he took part in a challenge with Frank Bruno and 3,000 customers of a Jewson store that had come to see him. He told the Daily Star: "Jewson got us to do their ‘In the Mixer’ Challenge which included shooting a football into a cement mixer, trying to hit a treble 20 on a board spinning with the machine and then firing a golf ball into a third one. Somehow, I managed to hit the target with all three and topped the leaderboard for the day out of 3,000 customers! Guess what though, the prize is four VIP tickets to watch me play at the Ally Pally! No joke. Obviously, I donated them back."
In all seriousness though, the four lucky recipients of the prize will be expecting the Machine to be given a stern examination from Jim Williams, who boasts a slightly higher seasonal average and also produced a fine performance after a slow start to see off Sebastian Bialecki 3-2 last time out.
The Welshman admitted he underestimated the Polish teenager and struggled with nerves early on but he won six of the last seven legs and ended the match with a 91 average, four 180s and a couple of 100+ checkouts. If he can play like he did in the second half of this match tonight, then Wade could be in trouble.
It's been quite a topsy turvy 2022 for last year's semi-finalist on and off the oche. Wade silenced a few doubters by reaching the Premier League play-offs during a campaign which was interrupted by a health scare that left him in a German hospital for three days while he also experienced the highs - and sleepless nights - of becoming a father for the second time with wife Sammi.
Wade did finally pick up a title in November's final Players Championship event of the season but apart from reaching the semi-finals of the World Series of Darts Finals, he underperformed in the majors and didn't qualify for the Grand Slam of Darts.
Although we know all about his timing and how he continually defies his lower than par averages compared to everyone else to stay in the world's top 10, it always feels a risk siding with him when he's a short-priced favourite.
However, I do like the look of both players having one or more 100+ checkout at 11/10, especially if we get four or five sets. Wade has won over 14% of his legs with a 100+ checkout this season which is among the highest percentages on tour while Williams showed how dangerous he can be from that range.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-1
Luke Humphries (1/5) v Florian Hempel (10/3) (R2)
- Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 97.57 - 90.93
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.32 - 0.23
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 40.05% - 28.00
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 12.27% - 11.59%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 31.21% - 19.23%
Luke Humphries will be many people's pick to go all the way, especially after reaching the semi-finals of the last two major tournaments in a year which also saw him win five titles.
Although Cool Hand wasn't particularly explosive from a statistical point of view during the Grand Slam, he certainly upped his levels at the Players Championship Finals, where he comfortably averaged over 100 in three of his matches before he was soundly put to the sword by Michael van Gerwen.
Humphries' seasonal average of 97.57 is among the very best in the business while there's only four players who can boast a higher 180 per leg ratio than his 0.33 in all competitions. He's certainly no slouch when it comes to 100+ checkouts either, so it's no surprise to see him winning over a third of his matches by bringing home the match treble. He's one of only five players who are above 30%, with Dirk van Duijvenbode, Damon Heta, Michael Smith and Martin Schindler being the others.
Florian Hempel had to come through the Europe Super League to earn his spot at the Ally Pally after a quiet season left him in danger of losing his Tour Card but his first-round victory over Keegan Brown means he's now guaranteed to keep it.
That should help him play in a more relaxed frame of mind against Humphries but his average of 88.55 wasn't actually too much less than what we'd expect from him based on his seasonal figures.
Hempel did stun Dimitri Van den Bergh on this stage 12 months ago but I'd fancy Humphries to breeze through here and bring up the match treble. The German did fire seven 180s against Brown but that was over 24 legs of darts and is higher than his seasonal maximum per leg ratio.
Scoreline Prediction: 3-1
Vincent van der Voort (4/5) v Cameron Menzies (10/11) (R2)
- Head to Head (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
- 2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
- Three-Dart Average (2022): 91.28 - 92.59
- 180s per leg (2022): 0.21 - 0.25
- Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 41.97% - 29.60%
- 100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 10.25% - 10.37%
- Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 11.32% - 20.73%
The most entertaining part of Cameron Menzies' debut 3-1 victory over Diogo Portela was his range of exasperated facial expressions.
It wasn't actually as bad a performance as he made everyone watching believe, averaging 86 and pinning almost 53% of his doubles against a low-calibre player who dragged him into a bit of a scrap.
The Scotsman will need to raise his game against Vincent van der Voort, who has only lost his first match on this stage twice since 2008 and last year saw his run ended only by a positive Covid test.
That said, van der Voort's season has been largely uneventful and has been in poor form over the winter months while his seasonal average of 91,28 is less than his opponent's 92.59 so neither player will be afraid of each other.
Scoreline Prediction: 1-3
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