World Cup 2026 betting tips: Group D predictions, best bets and team verdicts

Football

Tue June 02, 2026 · 2h ago

We break down every team, in every group in our World Cup 2026 betting guide. Group D features co-hosts USA, Paraguay, Australia and Türkiye.

Football betting tips: World Cup

2pts Türkiye to win Group D at 15/8 (Betfred)

1pt USA to be eliminated in the Round of 16 at 3/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt Nestory Irankunda top Australia goalscorer at 17/2 (William Hill)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Fixtures & kick-off times (BST)

June 13: USA 02:00 Paraguay
June 14: Australia 05:00 Türkiye
June 19: USA 20:00 Australia
June 20: Türkiye 04:00 Paraguay
June 26: Türkiye 03:00 USA
Paraguay 03:00 Australia

USA

As with any host nation, getting a decent read on the quality of Team USA is hard given they didn't need to go through the qualifying process.

It's been all friendlies for Mauricio Pochettino's men either side of two disappointing CONCACAF tournaments.

The first was the CONCACAF Nations League which saw them beaten by Panama in the semi-finals and then losing to Canada in the 'bronze medal match', while the second ended in defeat to Mexico in the final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup, getting there thanks to a penalty shoot-out win over Costa Rica and narrowly beating the might of Guatemala in the semis.

Recent friendlies have been disastrous for the Americans, getting handily beaten by European big boys Belgium (5-2) and Portugal (2-0), suggesting that they may struggle to go really deep in this home World Cup.

Home advantage should help for sure, but I'd be in no rush to back them at 66/1 or shorter. In fact, it's surprising to see them priced at 11/8 favourites to win the group due to their defensively vulnerabilities.

Going forward there is plenty to work with though.

In their most recent eight friendlies, all against teams who have qualified for the World Cup, they showed plenty of encouragement, not least with how attack-minded they are. On average they out-shot (12.5 - 10.3), created more big chances (2.6 - 1.3) and had more touches in the opposition box (26.6 - 17.3) than their opponents.

That is a half of the potential recipe for success if they can sustain those levels.

It will be interesting to see how the US deal with low-block, counter-attacking approaches they will likely face in Paraguay and Australia given their defensive weakness, with Türkiye the toughest test in my mind.

Ultimately I think Pochettino's men finish second in the group, and that puts them on a path with a potentially favourable round of 32 clash with the runner-up of group G (likely Egypt or Iran) before a tough round of 16 match-up.

At 3/1, we'll back USA TO BE ELIMINATED IN ROUND OF 16, as the chances are whether they finish first or second in the group, they will meet an elite and extremely competent team in the last 16 - either Belgium or Argentina in my bracket.

Paraguay

PARAGUAY make their first World Cup appearance since 2010 and their fate was transformed by the appointment of Gustavo Alfaro. The Argentine led Ecuador to the 2022 World Cup, and came in to reinvigorate the Paraguayans.

After picking up just five points from six CONMEBOL qualifiers and going out in the group stage of the Copa America with three straight defeats, Alfaro was brought in and led them to 23 points from the remaining 12 outings, with just one defeat which came in Brazil.

They did beat both Argentina and Brazil at home en route to securing sixth, and this team and squad have the capabilities to cause some upsets. They are well organised, dogged in their defensive work and very difficult to breach, alongside having the capability to create moments.

TWENTY3 GRAPHIC

Brighton's Diego Gomez, Chelsea/Strasbourg's Julio Enciso and former Newcastle winger Miguel Almiron provide the spark as well as maintaining the defensive work required to keep the teams shape.

I mark them as a dangerous team up until the point where the level in opponent ramps up, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them get out of the group and win a knockout game.

At this point it is worth mentioning though that all of their good work under Alfaro has been done at home, with Paraguay really struggling on their travels. They won just one of nine away qualifiers and that came against a hopeless Peru on the final outing of qualifying.

That could catch them out here on foreign soil, and I am sceptical as to whether they will make it out of the group, but ultimately it's a NO BET.

Australia

It says a lot for the strength of this group that AUSTRALIA are outsiders to qualify and are only 19/20 in places to finish bottom.

In fact, Group D may be the most balanced and even group, with FIFA World Rankings (for what they are worth) having these four sides tightly covered - USA (16), Paraguay (40), Türkiye (22) and Australia (27).

The Socceroos enjoyed themselves in Qatar at the last World Cup, and perhaps more importantly, thrived on being underdogs in a group stage that saw only two teams advance, finishing level on points with eventual runners-up France and ahead of Tunisia and Denmark to reach the knockout stages for the first time since 2006.

Eventual champions Argentina eliminated them in the last 16, but since then things have been rocky. A quarter-final exit in the Asian Cup the following year was a disappointment, and despite a change in coach afterwards, with Tony Popovic taking over, they continue to play in a similar manner - defence-first and counter-attack.

Nestory Irankunda celebrating scoring for Australia

If they are to have success in that manner, then Watford youngster NESTORY IRANKUNDA will be crucial in transition given his incredible speed, be that from the start or off the bench.

He played limited minutes for the Hornets this season but did score four times and averaged 0.24 xG per 90, which is a steady process for a young, developing winger, and impressively for us he is a volume shooter, averaging 2.97 shots per 90.

He also collected an eye-watering 12 yellow cards and one red, averaging 0.57 cards per 90, so keep an eye on his card prices in these group games.

But, at 17/2 he looks worth siding with TO BE AUSTRALIA TOP SCORER. He has slowly been integrated into the fold this last year but has made an impact.

Since last September he's featured on seven occasions for his country and scored four times including a brace in the March international window.

While four goals in seven doesn't sound fancy, he only started three of those, with his goal per 90 average in that time a whopping 0.98, and, while he is unlikely to be on penalty duty, he does take free-kicks for the Socceroos which is another potential edge for us.

Turkiye

TÜRKIYE are likely to be 'dark horses' for many as they make their long-awaited return to the World Cup, having been absent for 24 years after finishing third in 2002, and to be fair to them, they are in a good place heading into the World Cup, with a nice looking balance in their team under Vincenzo Montella and two years on from a very strong showing at Euro 2024.

They have an exciting front line with real quality in Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, experience in the form of Hakan Çalhanoğlu and the ability within the team to play a variety of different styles ranging from dominating possession to sitting in a deep block and springing.

Türkiye's squad looks well-balanced with youth (Yıldız and Güler) and experience (Çalhanoğlu)

Montella's men were excellent in qualifying, chasing Euro champions Spain home in a four-team group, drawing with the Spaniards in Sevilla too, before being incredibly solid in dominant 1-0 wins over Romania and Kosovo in the play-offs.

All of that after hammering Hungary 6-1 over two-legs to earn promotion to Nations League A.

I think they are the class of Group D and are best placed TO WIN THE GROUP, with the 15/8 available more than fair. Compared to the other teams in the group, they look the best equipped to deal with whatever is thrown at them from a style perspective, while they also undoubtedly have the better individual quality to get over the line.

The way the schedule plays out could help them too, playing Australia first and the USA last, with there a very real possibility that a draw in the final game is enough to secure top spot.

It's worth noting too that the difference in finishing top and second in this group could be big from a bracket perspective.

Both the winner and runner-up will have what would appear to be very winnable round of 32 clashes before tougher last 16 ones, though on my projections the winner faces Belgium and the runner-up takes on Argentina. I know who I'd rather avoid in that scenario...

Also, the winner gets to stay on the west coast for both of those ties, with all the Group D games taking place in that area, which would help from a travel perspective rather than heading east over to Dallas for the runners-up.

That could be a decent bit of extra motivation for the Europeans.

Odds correct at 14:00 BST (02/06/26)

Group previews

Outright previews

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