Fallon Sherrock (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)

PDC World Darts Championship: Day five predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Wed December 29, 2021 · 4y ago

The William Hill World Darts Championship continues on Sunday with two sessions so here's Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

Fallon Sherrock returns to the scene of her ceiling-smashing exploits tonight when she faces the legendary Steve Beaton while Jonny Clayton is the highest ranked player in action. We preview all eight matches...

Darts betting tips: World Championship day five

1pt Alan Soutar to beat Diogo Portela 3-0 at 6/4 (William Hill)

1pt Bunting v Smith to have three or more 100+ checkouts at 6/4 (Paddy Power)

1pt Schindler (-1.5 sets) to beat Hempel at 7/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Fallon Sherrock to win and hit most 180s at 3/1 (Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Sunday December 19: Afternoon session

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1230 GMT)
Format: Best of five sets (Rounds 1 and 2)

SL Acca: Schindler and Sherrock to win plus Clayton to win 3-0 at 11/2 with Sky Bet

Maik Kuivenhoven (3/11) v Ky Smith (7/2) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 91.49 – N/A
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.2 – N/A
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 36.17% – N/A
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 13.4% – N/A

Ky Smith spent yesterday cheering on his dad to a superb victory over Jamie Hughes but now it's his turn to make his father proud as he makes his Ally Pally debut.

Smith junior qualified by winning the Oceanic Masters with a tournament average of 83 but he did reach a high of 94 and isn't regarded too big of an underdog against Maik Kuivenhoven, who has enjoyed an improving season albeit unspectacular.

However, this is the 19-year-old's first taste of televised action, let alone in front of a raucous Alexandra Palace crowd so you've got to give the edge to Kuivenhoven on experience alone.

The German lost narrowly to Michael van Gerwen at the World Series Finals and should be confident of banishing the memories of 12 months ago, when he lost 3-0 to Matt Edgar in round one with an average of just 81.

Predicted Scoreline: 3-2

Sky Bet are offering a Price Boost for the Fallon Sherrock match treble

Jason Heaver (4/6) v Gordon Mathers (13/10) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 90.59 – 90.05
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.25 – 0.23
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 23.53% – 27.27%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 9.06% – 11.44%

England’s Jason Heaver makes his Ally Pally debut at the age of 47 against Australia’s Gordon Mathers, who was one of three late call-ups to the tournament from the reserve list.

Heaver enjoyed a superb run to a Players Championship semi-final back in March but apart from that wins have been hard to come by while Mathers has managed a few notable wins against the likes of Dave Chisnall, Jose de Sousa and Dimitri Van den Bergh.

Statistically they are very similar and although the 40-year-old Aussie has experience of the Ally Pally, he's lost both his previous two matches against Seigo Asada (2-1 in 2018) and Max Hopp (3-0 in 2021) with low 80s averages.

Probably a game to swerve but if it is a hard-fought five-setter then you may look at the total 180s market given their maximums per leg ratios this season aren't too shabby. It's even-money for there to be over 7.5.

Predicted Scoreline: 2-3

Alan Soutar (1/5) v Diogo Portela (9/2) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 94.23 – N/A
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.24 – N/A
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 36.14% – N/A
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 12.29% – N/A

Scotland’s Alan Soutar has enjoyed a superb debut season on the PDC Tour and he’s hot favourite to see off popular Brazilian Diogo Portela on his Ally Pally debut.

Soutar made a very early impact with a fine run to the last 16 of the UK Open back in March when he beat Raymond van Barneveld, Stephen Bunting and Ron Meulenkamp along the way before a narrow 10-8 defeat to Dave Chisnall, averaging well over 90 for the tournament.

The 43-year-old overcame Barney, Peter Wright and Ratajski in a quarter-final run at a Players Championship event last month while his seasonal average of 94 is comfortably inside the top 30 on the circuit so he's understandably a firm favourite to win this clash.

Portela provided one of the more emotional moments at the Ally Pally 12 months ago when he surprisingly thrashed Steve Beaton 3-0 with an 89 average to claim his first ever victory on this stage at the fourth attempt before crashing out by the same scoreline to Glen Durrant with a 79 average.

Braziliant's qualification was pretty much a foregone conclusion at the Central-South America Qualifier in Costa Rica, where a tournament average of 78 was plenty enough to breeze through. In the final his opponent averaged 63.

Portela, who did take a set off Peter Wright in the 2018 edition with an average of almost 92, will need an inspirational performance to catch Soutar cold and I can't really see that happening.

CLICK HERE to back Soutar to win 3-0 with Sky Bet

Predicted Scoreline: 3-0

Stephen Bunting (4/5) v Ross Smith (15/13) (R2)

Head to Head (TV): 5-2 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 1-1 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 93.97 – 95.41
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.27 – 0.32
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 41.1% – 50%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 15.61% – 13.04%

Stephen Bunting will be hoping to cap off a fine season with another superb Ally Pally run but he'd have wanted an easier opening assignment than a player who has averaged higher than him this year and reached more finals.

The Bullet breathed new life into his career 12 months ago with a charge to the semi-finals, where he hit five of a record 13 100+ checkouts in his clash with Gerwyn Price, and since then he's picked up his first PDC title in five years and also reached the last four of the World Grand Prix before the Iceman took him out again.

Bunting ended last year's World Championship with 15 ton+ checkouts and that's a trend we've continued to see from him this season having won almost 16% of his legs with three-figure finishes. For context, the best players in the word are managing around 11% to 13% while MVG is notably high at 14.16%.

Ross Smith's 13% is certainly above average too and he even managed a couple of them - including a stunner from 144 - in an otherwise scrappy 3-0 victory over Jeff Smith in round one that featured just 12 legs.

Clearly Smith will have to improve on his 85 average to trouble Bunting and we should expect him to given the usual levels he's produced in a season which has seen him win a title and reach two other finals.

It's tough to call a winner but we should see at least four sets and plenty of opportunities to get three or more 100+ checkouts at 6/4.

CLICK HERE to back three or more 100+ checkouts with Sky Bet

Predicted Scoreline: Will appear here...

Evening session

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
Format: Best of five sets (Rounds 1 and 2)

Martijn Kleermaker (2/5) v John Michael (9/4) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 91.41 – 87.87
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.19 – 0.20
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 23% – 50%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 10.25% – 13.58%

Martijn Kleermaker finally makes his Ally Pally debut having missed out last year due to Covid and is expected to progress against John Michael, who has lost all three of his previous matches here.

The big Dutchman also boasts a higher seasonal average than his Cypriot-born Greek opponent - albeit not by too much - and also reached a PDC final this year when finishing runner-up to Dirk van Duijvenbode back in April. He has plenty of potential and demonstrated this by beating Gerwyn Price earlier this season while he also reached the last 16 of the UK Open.

Michael qualified to play here for the first time since 2017 having come through the South-East Europe qualifier with an average of 91 in the final but on the PDC tour this season he's only managed nine wins and four of those came in one tournament back in February.

Predicted Scoreline: 3-1

Florian Hempel (6/5) v Martin Schindler (4/5) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 93.91 – 95.64
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.26 – 0.28
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 43.06% – 34.21%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 12.45% – 11.8%

Martin Schindler could go far in this tournament after a very impressive season but he could have been given a far easier first-round draw than this German derby.

His average of almost 96 ranks inside the top 20 on the PDC Tour this season and certainly can be regarded as one of the most dangerous unseeded players in the tournament, despite the fact he's yet to showcase his potential on the big stages.

Schindler does have far more experience of televised tournaments but Florian Hempel showed no sign of nerves when beating Peter Wright 6-3 on his TV debut at the European Championship, albeit with an average of 87 in a scrappy affair.

His stats are strong this season and both players have an impressive 180s per leg ratios which make the over 8.5 maximums bet appealing at 6/5 should it go the distance. However, I feel Schindler might run away with this one and fancy him to cover the -1.5 set handicap.

CLICK HERE to back Schindler (-1.5 sets) to win 3-0 with Sky Bet

Predicted Scoreline: 1-3

Steve Beaton (1/1) v Fallon Sherrock (4/5) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 90.97 – 93.69 (PDC TV events)
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.19 – 0.30 (Grand Slam)
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 28.79% – 40% (Grand Slam)
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 9.48% – 15% (Grand Slam)

Fallon Sherrock was 6/1 to beat Ted Evetts ahead of her first ever appearance at the Ally Pally two years ago but now she finds herself odds-on to defeat one of the biggest legends in the sport, who is making a record 31st consecutive appearance at a World Championship.

That obviously shows just how much her reputation has grown over what is still a short space of time when you consider how few opportunities she's had to play against big names.

If you include her heroics over Evetts and Mensur Suljovic two years ago, the Queen of the Palace has so far played 15 matches against men in televised events – winning seven and drawing once in the 2020 Premier League – while she’s won almost half of the 211 legs played and averaged just over 91.

Over the past few months she gave Michael van Gerwen a scare at the Nordic Darts Masters, where she'd previously come from 8-2 down to stun Dimitri Van den Bergh 11-10 in the semi-finals, before creating more history during a fairytale run at the Grand Slam of Darts.

Fallon Sherrock is 'ready' for Gerwyn Price, the World Darts Championship and the Premier League!

In a 5-0 thumping of Mike de Decker she posted the highest ever televised average for a woman of 101.55, then she hit 'that' 170 checkout against Gabriel Clemens, thrashed Suljovic 10-5 and finally averaged almost 100 in a high-class 16-13 defeat to Peter Wright in the quarters.

All that created the debate about whether she should be selected for the Premier League but right now it's all about passing this latest player against Steve Beaton, who is probably a fair outsider when you consider his lack of winning form, mediocre season stats and the fact he's only got past round two in the PDC worlds on three occasions. The Ally Pally really doesn't bring the best out of him.

Sherrock's average in her eight televised matches this year has been 93.69 while in the Grand Slam her 180s per leg ratio was a very high 0.30, which is considerably higher than what Beaton has managed on the whole tour this season. His stats obviously include many more matches and therefore more reliable but at least Sherrock's sample have come under intense pressure - which she's unfazed by.

Predicted Scoreline: 1-3

Sky Bet are offering a Price Boost for the Fallon Sherrock match treble

Jonny Clayton (1/9) v Keane Barry (11/2) (R2)

Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
2021 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2021 Titles (TV): 6-0 (4-0)
PDC Three-Dart Average (2021): 98.49 – 91.54
PDC 180’s per leg (2021): 0.27 – 0.19
PDC Checkout Percentage (Stage Events 2021): 42.06% – 32.95%
PDC 100+ checkouts per leg won (2021): 13.07% – 11.65%

Jonny Clayton is the highest ranked player in action today but to call him the eighth seed seems laughable considering what he's achieved this season.

The Ferret has firmly become one of the 'big four' in 2021 thanks to winning four televised titles, including the World Grand Prix and Premier League , in his overall haul of six while his average of 98.49 is third only to Gerwyn Price and Michael van Gerwen.

Clayton was knocked off his stride by Price in the Grand Slam of Darts quarter-finals despite averaging a superior 99 and then looked out of sorts during the recent Players Championship Finals, where drafty conditions and very late night starts to his matches probably played a big part.

He'll have regrouped over the past few weeks and will surely have far too much firepower for Keane Barry, who averaged just 83.59 in the first round, hit one maximum in 21 legs and hit 34% of his doubles.

The young Irishman can certainly perform better than that but Clayton is worth backing in the match treble markets as she should dominate all stats.