The first of Saturday’s seven races at the Cheltenham November meeting is set to get under way at 12:35, with the meeting’s feature race, the Paddy Power Gold Cup, off at 2:20. Read on for our preview, plus the latest Paddy Power sign-up offer.
With Paddy Power offering five places in both that one and the following 2:55, both races make appeal from an each-way standpoint. So we’ve aimed to pick at least one at a price in each, in our preview – all compiled using data and insight from racing’s premier analysts, Timeform.
Data Shows Henry Is Cheltenham Chase King
While Henry de Bromhead’s name remains absent from the Paddy Power Gold Cup roll of honour, form is at its most advantageous when read between the lines. And by focusing on how well horses ran, as opposed to where they finished, what Timeform’s ‘run-to-form’ metric tells us is that (looking at all trainers who’ve saddled 10 or more total runners in these categories over the past five seasons) de Bromhead has been pretty much without equal at getting horses to perform in either Cheltenham handicap chases or Cheltenham middle distance chases, let alone the combination of the two. It’s therefore reasonable to conclude that neither his race record, nor the odds of his two entries this year, are truly reflective of his chances of winning Saturday’s big race.
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Swiss Can Bank Gold
That July Flower is the choice of Darragh O’Keefe at least partly explains her shorter price (around 7/1 at the time of writing). However, she achieved her course and distance wins on separate occasions, while Zurich took a 2½ mile novices’ chase here last October. Both running to the same Timeform rating at the 2026 Festival (128+) over this distance, their reporter noted that Zurich “did all he could” when 5th of 23 under Brian Hayes in the Plate, subsequently noted as a ‘Hot Race’; they were less complimentary about July Flower’s 5th of 8 in the Mare’s Chase, who “was found wanting in the latter stages”. Either way, while O’Keeffe may have chosen to stick with July Flower, the booking of Sean Bowen is certainly no bad thing.
Both are clearly interesting for a yard you might say is overdue a result in this race, but given that July Flower now carries 4lb more, Zurich looks the more compelling bet at current odds of 12/1. There’s no doubt he’ll have to find significant improvement, but with a return run under his belt, the seven-year-old can reach new heights for Cheltenham chase maestro de Bromhead, at a time of year his horses typically hit peak form (as recorded by Timeform’s trainer dashboard).
Yeats Can Dominate If They Dawdle
The From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle at 2:55 is notable for its apparent lack of any regular front-runner, the majority of the 16-strong field usually ridden in midfield or further back, and Timeform duly forecast a ‘weak’ pace in the 3 mile contest. But the question is: if they do go off at a crawl, who stands to benefit?
Undeniably, course winner and current joint-favourite Ace of Spades looks to have a good sprint finish in the locker, winning at Huntingdon and 2nd here in two slowly-run ‘staying’ races this January, since struggling to repeat the feat in bigger, stronger, faster fields. Regardless, he’s likely to be given another trademark hold-up ride from Harry Skelton, and as that may not put him in the best position, it could be worth taking him on at the prices.
According to Timeform, only four of these 16 horses have led on any one of their last five outings. It didn’t go well for Hartur d’Arc, Aimeric or Blizzard of Oz, all beaten in excess of 20 lengths on those three occasions. That directs our search to the foot of the weights, and the consistent William Yeats, who certainly won’t mind the likely quick ground. He went close last month when attempting to make all, led for much of the way when winning in August, and managed to overcome concession of first run to score from slightly further back, last time out – all of which should hopefully be enough to convince regular jockey Jonathan England to take the initiative here.
While Aimeric has beaten William Yeats into second by Aimeric on both his last two outings, Sam England’s charge remains the choice of the two as they meet again up in trip, in light of her fast-growing reputation as a skilled trainer of stayers – as backed up by Timeform’s Trainer Dashboard.
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How To Use The Paddy Power Sign-Up Offer
Paddy Power are offering a bet £5, get £30 in free bets deal, open to new customers only (18+, T&Cs apply). The terms show that your qualifying £5 bet must be settled before you’re given your £30 in free bets, so a bet on the opener could set you up nicely for the day, with £5 credit to use on each of the rest.
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