Colts 50/1 to beat Commanders: Why Indianapolis could make a statement in London

Colts @ Commanders: Match information

Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
Kick-off: 2:30pm BST
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Week: NFL Week 4

The game is part of a huge year for the NFL's international programme. The 2026 schedule features a record nine regular-season games outside the United States, with games being played across Australia, Brazil, the UK, France, Spain, Germany and Mexico.

London gets three regular-season games this year, with Indianapolis and Washington kicking off the run at Tottenham before Philadelphia face Jacksonville the following week. Jacksonville then stay in London to face Houston at Wembley on October 18. For Colts fans, there is also some recent European history to draw upon. Indianapolis travelled to Berlin last season and beat Atlanta, meaning Sunday's trip represents another opportunity for the team to perform on the international stage.

With both teams 1-2, a win could provide an important early-season boost. And with Sky Bet offering 50/1 on the Colts to win, supporters who fancy Indianapolis to produce an upset have an eye-catching price to consider.The NFL's international series arrives in London this weekend as the Indianapolis Colts take on the Washington Commanders at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, October 4.

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Why could the Colts win in London?

At first glance, the 50/1 price makes Indianapolis a huge outsider, but there are reasons for Colts supporters to believe they can produce an upset.

Both teams enter the game with a 1-2 record, meaning neither has enjoyed a perfect start to the season. Indianapolis also comes into London with some momentum after finally getting on the board in Week 3, beating the Houston Texans 19-17.

That victory was particularly notable because the Colts won despite losing the turnover battle by three. It was their first victory with a turnover differential of -3 or worse since 1999.

There is clearly work still to do, but the win demonstrated that Indianapolis can find a way through a difficult game.

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Jonathan Taylor leads the Colts' running game

One of the biggest reasons to keep an eye on Indianapolis is Jonathan Taylor.

The Colts running back has made a strong start to the season, rushing for 258 yards and four touchdowns through three games, while averaging 3.9 yards per carry.

Taylor gives Indianapolis an important dimension because a strong running game can help control the tempo of a game and take some pressure away from quarterback Daniel Jones.

That could be particularly relevant in London, where both teams are adapting to an unusual game week and an early local kick-off. If Indianapolis can establish Taylor early, it could give the Colts opportunities to control possession and put Washington's defence under pressure.

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Daniel Jones and Josh Downs building a connection

The other side of the Colts' offensive equation is Daniel Jones.

Jones has thrown for 611 yards and three touchdowns across the opening three games, although he has also thrown three interceptions.

There have been signs of encouraging chemistry with wide receiver Josh Downs, particularly in recent weeks. Downs has caught 12 passes for 149 yards on 20 targets across the Colts' last two games, with his ability to create separation and gain yards after the catch making him a useful outlet for Jones.

That relationship could become even more important with Alec Pierce on injured reserve. Pierce had provided Indianapolis with a significant deep-threat option, meaning other receivers will need to contribute more heavily.

Keenan Allen is another player to watch. The veteran receiver scored his first touchdown for the Colts since Week 7 of last season in the win over Houston, while veteran Laquon Treadwell also produced a crucial 20-yard reception during the late winning drive.

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A key matchup: Colts defence vs Washington's quarterback

The quarterback situation in Washington adds another interesting layer to Sunday's game.

Jayden Daniels suffered a dislocated left elbow in Week 2 and missed Washington's Week 3 win over Seattle. He has returned to limited practice this week, but his availability remains a key question ahead of the game. If he cannot play, Marcus Mariota is expected to start again after leading the Commanders to a shock 33-31 victory over Seattle.

For Indianapolis, the challenge will be limiting Washington's ability to create explosive plays built Mariota's experience.

There was considerable improvement from the Colts' defence in Week 3. After allowing 1,029 yards across the opening two games, Indianapolis held Houston to just 237 total yards in the 19-17 victory.

DeForest Buckner will be central to that effort. The veteran defensive tackle made his presence felt against Houston, including a sack of C.J. Stroud on third down, and his ability to disrupt the pocket could be important against either Washington quarterback.

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Recent form and playing styles

Both sides arrive in London at 1-2, but their Week 3 victories came in very different circumstances.

Indianapolis edged Houston 19-17 in a defensive battle, relying on Taylor's running game, timely plays from Jones and its kicker Spencer Shrader. Shrader made field goals from 39, 58, 37 and 53 yards, with the final kick coming with time running down to secure the win.

Washington, meanwhile, produced a much higher-scoring contest against Seattle, eventually winning 33-31 with Mariota at quarterback.

That could make Sunday's game particularly intriguing. Indianapolis will want to make the game more controlled, establish Taylor and ask its defence to limit Washington's explosive plays. The Commanders showed last week that they can produce points, even without Daniels.

For the Colts, avoiding turnovers will also be crucial. Jones lost two fumbles and threw an interception against Houston, yet Indianapolis still found a way to win. Repeating that formula would be difficult, making ball security one of the key areas to watch in London.

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The Verdict: Colts 50/1 to beat the Washington Commanders

Playing in London is a different prospect to the usual home game, but with the Colts about to lead on Jonathan Taylor's ability they have a great chance at coming away with the victory, especially with backup QB Mariota leading the way for the Commanders.

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