Jude Bellingham 40/1 to have 1+ shots on target: Paddy Power Sign Up Offer – Mexico vs England

Match Overview

Fixture: Mexico vs England
Competition: FIFA World Cup 2026 – Round of 16
Date: Sunday 5 July 2026
Kick-off: 01:00 BST (8pm ET local time)
Venue: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Offer: Paddy Power – 40/1 on Bellingham 1+ Shots (new customers)

Paddy Power Sign Up Offer for the Mexico vs England World Cup Round of 16 tie gives new customers the chance to back one of the tournament's most dynamic attacking midfielders at dramatically enhanced odds.

England travel to Mexico City for what promises to be a defining test of their World Cup credentials. Jude Bellingham has been central to everything positive about England's campaign so far, and his tendency to arrive in dangerous positions makes the 40/1 offer on him registering at least one shot a particularly appealing proposition.

Bellingham's Tournament So Far

The Real Madrid midfielder has been England's most influential player throughout this World Cup, operating in an advanced role that sees him consistently involved in the final third:

• England 4-2 Croatia – Bellingham assisted twice and had multiple efforts on goal

• England 0-0 Ghana – Dropped deeper but still tested the goalkeeper from distance

• Panama 0-2 England – Scored the opener and was a constant threat

• England 2-1 DR Congo – Heavily involved in build-up play, driving at the defence throughout

Bellingham's role under Thomas Tuchel sees him positioned as the most advanced midfielder, often joining Harry Kane in the final third. His ability to arrive late in the box, combined with his willingness to shoot from range, makes him one of England's most prolific shot-takers from midfield.

Mexico's Path to the Last 16

The hosts have been impressive throughout, winning all four of their matches so far:

• Mexico 2-0 South Africa – A controlled opening victory

• Mexico 1-0 South Korea – Julián Quiñones decisive again

• Czechia 0-3 Mexico – Ruthless away from Mexico City

• Mexico 2-0 Ecuador – Professional Round of 32 display

Javier Aguirre's side have shown tactical flexibility, pressing high when appropriate but also comfortable sitting in a mid-block and hitting teams on the counter. The Estadio Azteca's altitude and atmosphere add another dimension to their home advantage.

Why Bellingham 1+ Shots Makes Sense

This market hinges on a simple question: will Jude Bellingham have at least one shot during 90 minutes (plus any extra time)?

The evidence strongly suggests he will:

• Bellingham has registered shots in every England appearance this tournament

• His advanced role positions him in shooting zones regularly

• He averaged 2.8 shots per game in La Liga for Real Madrid in 2025-26

• England's set-piece routines often see him attacking the box

• His confidence to shoot from distance adds to his shot volume

Bellingham is not a player who shies away from shooting opportunities. Whether cutting inside from wide areas, arriving in the box, or trying his luck from 25 yards, he consistently looks to test goalkeepers.

At the time of writing, the underlying probability of Bellingham having at least one shot is high – which is precisely what makes Paddy Power's 40/1 enhancement for new customers such compelling value.

Tactical Considerations

The tactical dynamics of this fixture could play into Bellingham's hands:

• If Mexico press high, Bellingham's ability to drive forward in transition creates shooting opportunities

• If Mexico sit deep, England will need creativity from midfield – Bellingham's primary strength

• The altitude may encourage England to be more direct, leading to more speculative efforts

• Set-pieces will be crucial in a tight knockout game, with Bellingham a target in the box

Regardless of how Mexico approach the match, Bellingham's role ensures he will be positioned in areas where shots are likely. His hunger to influence big games makes him even more likely to look for goal in a fixture of this magnitude.

Match Scenarios Favouring Bellingham Shots

Several realistic match developments support Bellingham registering at least one shot:

• England dominate possession and Bellingham operates between the lines

• Mexico's compact block forces England to shoot from range

• England trail and push forward, with Bellingham taking on more attacking responsibility

• A tight game goes to extra time, extending Bellingham's opportunity window

• Set-pieces see Bellingham attacking crosses in the penalty area

For Bellingham not to have a single shot, England would need to be completely overrun – an unlikely outcome given their quality and the balance of their squad.

Final Verdict

Mexico will provide England's sternest examination of this World Cup, but Jude Bellingham's involvement in the attack is virtually guaranteed. His positioning, confidence, and willingness to shoot from various situations make the 1+ shots market a near-formality.

The 40/1 price available to new Paddy Power customers significantly overestimates the risk of this outcome. For those looking to engage with one of the tournament's standout fixtures, this represents an excellent opportunity.

Best Bet for New Customers:
Paddy Power – 40/1 on Bellingham 1+ Shots

England's most influential player, a high-stakes knockout match, and enhanced odds that dramatically undervalue the probability.

Paddy Power Offer: Terms and Conditions

Who can take part?

• New customers only. Available to residents of the UK & Republic of Ireland.

How & when can I qualify?

• Open a new account using the promotional link
• Deposit a minimum of £5 by Pay by Bank, Debit Cards or Apple Pay
• Place a max £1 bet on the Bellingham 1+ Total Shots market for Mexico vs England
• Cashed Out, Partially Cashed Out and Power Price bets will not count towards the promotion

What can I win?

• If your bet is successful, you will be paid in cash based on the normal price on site and will have the extra amount, bringing the bet up to the cumulative 40/1 payout, credited in free bet builders

When will I get my prize?

• You will receive your Free bet builders after your qualifying bet settles. Free bet builders are valid for 30 days.

What else do I need to know?

• Best odds guaranteed does not apply to bets placed with a free bet, or partial free bet
• You can use part of your free bets and save the rest for later as long as you use it before they expire
• Stakes are not returned with winnings if your free bet wins. Your winnings will be credited to your main wallet
• Deposits made with e-wallets including: PayPal, Skrill, Paysafe and Neteller will not count towards this promotion
• The offer excludes the following bet types: Canadian, Goliath, Heinz, Lucky 15, Lucky 31, Lucky 63, Patent, Super Heinz, Trixie & Yankee

Other essential stuff:

• Paddy Power reserves the right in its discretion to exclude and/or limit the availability of the offer to certain customers
• The full terms and conditions of Paddypower.com also apply to this offer

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