Gerwyn Price (Picture: Taylor Lanning/PDC)

PDC World Darts Championship 2023: Day five predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Carl Fletcher

Darts

Fri December 23, 2022 · 3y ago

The PDC World Darts Championship continues on Monday so check out Carl Fletcher's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

The action comes thick and fast with eight more games over two sessions at the Ally Pally, where Jose De Sousa and Simon Whitlock clash in the afternoon before Gerwyn Price takes centre stage tonight.

Here, we look ahead to all eight matches with seasonal statistics to help...

Darts betting tips: World Championship day five

1pt Jose De Sousa v Simon Whitlock to have over 15.5 legs, highest checkout over 116.5 and over 8.5 180’s at 11/10 (Sky Bet)

2pts Geert Nentjes to win and hit the most 180’s at 5/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)

1pt Price to win, score over 3.5 180’s and checkout over 101.5 at 11/10 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

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World Championship: Monday, December 19

EVENING SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 2000 GMT
Round and Format: Rounds 1 & 2 (Best of five sets)
In the below stats (courtesy of @CarlyFletch) and his @DartsTracker), the averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only. For players who haven't played in any PDC events like Paolo Nebrida, Leonard Gates, David Cameron and Danny Van Trijp any data available will be from their World Championship qualification route and other tournaments with data.

Geert Nentjes (4/7) vs Leonard Gates (5/4) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-3 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 91.43 - 86.10
180s per leg (2022): 0.24 - 0.08
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 37.84% - 25.53%
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 14.49% - 7.00%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 17.39% - 0.00%

We’ve seen quite a bit of Leonard Gates on our TV screens this year as he featured in the US Darts Masters, World Series of Darts Finals and Grand Slam of Darts - so his stats above incorporate those games.

He was the only home based player to advance to the second round of the US Darts Masters when he defeated Fallon Sherrock 6-2 while he also won his first round game at the World Series of Darts Finals when he beat Devon Petersen 6-4.

Although he lost all three games in the group stage at the Grand Slam, he should’ve arguably beat Damon Heta to underline what he’s capable of. We already knew that, however, having seen him average 113.24 during one of his matches at Q School, even though he ultimately didn't earn a card.

Nentjes is a youngster who comes into this as favourite. He had a decent run at the UK Open in March, winning three matches before losing to Mensur Suljovic in the last 32. We’ve also seen him reach the last 16 on a couple of occasions on the floor this year before running into 100+ averages from Gerwyn Price and Damon Heta. On top of this he’s also whitewashed the young sensation Josh Rock on stage this year, when he did so at the German Darts Open on the Euro Tour.

Nentjes has averaged 91.43 over the year and hit 180’s at 0.24 per leg. Gates in the aforementioned televised games has averaged 86.10 and hit 180’s at 0.08 per leg. Whilst Gates has notched up a couple of wins on TV this year they were against players out of form. You can’t say Nentjes is that and the match result, maximum double looks a good bet.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-1

CLICK HERE to back Nentjes to win and hit hit most 180s with Sky Bet

Ritchie Edhouse (8/15) vs David Cameron (11/8) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 91.31 - 88.72
180s per leg (2022): 0.23 - 0.17
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 31.94% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 12.99% - 11.71 %
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 23.00% - Unavailable

Ritchie Edhouse has found form in recently and even defeated the Grand Slam of Darts champion Michael Smith at the Players Championship Finals last month - quite a shock considering he was beaten with ease by him in Wolverhampton the week before.

During November he played 14 matches and won nine, which included coming through the Grand Slam of Darts qualifiers to feature in that event. His five defeats coming against Joe Cullen (twice), Josh Rock, Michael Smith and Dimitri Van Den Bergh, so no disgrace ithere.

His best run this year was a quarter-final at Players Championship 14 where he was defeated 6-4 by Damon Heta, who produced a terrific performance (104.26 average) to beat him.

David Cameron, the Canadian qualifier from the CDC tour, has enjoyed success on the big stage this year as he captured the World Seniors Darts Masters in May defeating Kevin Painter, Robert Thornton in the opening two rounds before claiming the title with a 6-3 triumph over Phil Taylor in the final.

We also saw him in the WDF World Championships at Lakeside this year where he lost in the opening round 2-1 to Tipton’s Ian Jones, averaging just 79.66.

During the Senior Masters, Cameron played better and averaged 87.43 for the event but that leaves him with a little to find against Edhouse who’s averaged 91.31 over the course of the year.

Edhouse won the very first game of this event last year when he defeated Peter Hudson 3-2 before losing later the same night 3-1 to defending champion Gerwyn Price. He did however give the Welshman a closer game than many envisaged.

Edhouse should just have enough here but it could go all the way.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-2

Steve Beaton (4/9) vs Danny Van Trijp (13/8) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 91.17 - 88.92
180s per leg (2022): 0.18 - 0.23
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 45.65% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 10.11% - 7.21%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 9.57% - Unavailable

Remarkably Steve Beaton is appearing in his 32nd World Championship and the housewives choice is starting tonight game as a warm favourite to set up a clash against Jonny Clayton.

It hasn’t all been plain sailing this year for the 1996 BDO World Champion but he did find his form at the business end of the year, finishing runner-up in the final Players Championship event of the year, losing 8-6 to James Wade after picking up victories over Stephen Bunting and Dave Chisnall along the way.

There have been some good darts produced throughout the year from ‘The Adonis’ with a 118.19 average in a 6-1 win over Jon Worsley in July and a 110.41 average in a 6-3 victory over Martin Lukeman in August.

You may recall last year that he was drawn to face Fallon Sherrock in the first round and rolled back the years to produce a professional display to defeat the Queen of Palace 3-2. If he can handle that, you’d have to suspect he may be quite relieved with his draw this time round.

In Danny Van Trijp he’ll face a player he’s aware of, as he played in 15 of the 30 Players Championship events this year despite not having a Tour Card. He exited in the first or second round on 12 occasions but he did piece together a last 16 run at Players Championship 27, where he exited at the hands of Jose De Sousa 6-3.

We’ve seen him recently in the Modus Super Series where he didn’t pull up too many trees and with the crowd firmly in Beaton’s favour, I can’t see past an Adonis victory.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-1

Gerwyn Price (1/9) vs Luke Woodhouse (5/1) (R2)

Head to Head (TV): 5-2 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 97.44 - 91.56
180s per leg (2022): 0.28 - 0.23
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 40.71% - 35.93%
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 14.98% - 11.03%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 24.67% - 14.89%

Gerwyn Price has won five titles this year, including the the World Series of Darts Finals but he’s failed to pick up a real big one in 2022.

In the World Matchplay he lost in the final to MVG while he also reached the semi-finals of the World Grand Prix and the quarter-finals of the UK Open and the Grand Slam. He’ll be disappointed not to have picked up one of these for sure.

The 2021 world champion and top seed comes into this event on the back of a first round exit to Ryan Joyce at the Players Championship Finals but he played well enough in that game, averaging 96.34. Prior to that game he averaged 100+ in nine of the eleven preceding matches.

A victory here would set up a clash against Ryan Meikle or Raymond Van Barneveld, the latter of whom has defeated in their last three matches recently.

First of all he’ll need to get past Luke Woodhouse, who comfortably came past Ukrainian Qualifier Vladsylav Omelchenko 3-0 as many predicted in the first round on Sunday.

He averaged 87.89 in that match but he’ll need to produce much more here to push the ‘Iceman’ close. He looked OK at the Grand Slam of Darts defeating the European Champion Ross Smith in the opener, lost to MVG comfortably in his second game before losing a crucial third game to Nathan Rafferty despite a 100+ average.

These have met once this year, on stage at the European Darts Open and it was Price who won 6-4. I can imagine the sets may be close but Price regularly seems to win the key legs more often than not.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-0

CLICK HERE to back Price to win, score over 3.5 180’s and checkout over 101.5 with Sky Bet

AFTERNOON SESSION

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1300 GMT
Round and Format: Rounds 1 & 2 (Best of five sets)
In the below stats (courtesy of @CarlyFletch) and his @DartsTracker), the averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only. For players who haven't played in any PDC events like Paolo Nebrida, Leonard Gates, David Cameron and Danny Van Trijp any data available will be from their World Championship qualification route and other tournaments with data.

SL Acca: Beaton (-1.5), Nentjes (-1.5) & Zonneveld (-1.5) all to win at 8/1 with Sky Bet

Andrew Gilding (2/7) vs Robert Owen (5/2) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-3 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 95.01 - 91.62
180s per leg (2022): 0.23 - 0.21
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 36.16% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 13.73% - 9.38%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 22.69% - Unavailable

Robert Owen is appearing here by virtue of his successful year on the Challenge Tour, which has also earned back his Tour Card so we’ll be seeing a lot more of “Stack Attack” in 2023.

Having said that we saw quite a bit of him in 2022. The 2018 UK Open semi-finalist appeared in 11 of the Players Championship events this year, with his best effort being was a last 16 run when he accounted for both Martin Schindler and Ricky Evans before losing 6-1 to Dirk Van Duijvenbode. He also managed three further last 32 runs so we know he’s a creditable threat.

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Gilding himself has enjoyed a resurgence this year by reached three finals in 2022, losing all three by the same margin, 8-6. These were against Danny Jansen (Players Championship 9), Danny Noppert (Players Championship 19) and Dave Chisnall (Belgian Darts Open).

It’s not just the results either, it’s the standard he’s played at. He’s averaged 95.01 over the course of the year, registering 21 100+ averages (winning 19 of these games) with a high of 118.33 in a 6-1 defeat of Brett Claydon, which he followed up in his next game with a 111.52 average against Berry Van Peer. The following day hit a 109.48 average in a 6-1 victory against Martin Lukeman so he certainly has levels.

That bar may have dropped slightly of late but you have to favour him on what he’s produced this year. The head-to-head record however favours Owen and this could be a close one.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-2

Danny Jansen (2/7) vs Paolo Nebrida (5/2) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 89.54 - 81.78
180s per leg (2022): 0.21 - 0.13
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 47.89% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 9.67% - 0%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 20.69% - Unavailable

Danny Jansen is arguably one of the surprise winners on tour this year. He clinched the Players Championship 9 title in April with some notable scalps, defeating Peter Wright, Krzystof Ratajski, Chris Dobey, Dave Chisnall and Andrew Gilding along the way.

Since then however he’s struggled to string runs together. In his last 40 matches he’s only won 13 games and averaged less than his opponent in 29 of them.

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Paolo Nebrida of the Phillipines is here through the Asian Championship after finishing runner up to Christian Perez, losing 7-5 in the final. During this event he averaged 81.78, which is nearly eight points lower than the seasonal average of Jansen at 89.54.

This is not a game you pick either player with any confidence but on what we have seen this year you’d probably slightly favour the Dutchman. However, we witnessed on Saturday what the Asian qualifiers can bring to the big stage and think this could be another close one.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-2

Niels Zonneveld (8/15) vs Lewy Williams (11/8) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.15 - 89.37
180s per leg (2022): 0.25 - 0.21
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 34.58% - 33.33%
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 11.76% - 10.84%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 20.00% - 13.43%

Lewy Williams recently became a father and as a result we haven’t seen him toe the oche on the main tour since October so there’s probably a few question marks surrounding his form coming into this. In fact we’ve only seen the The Welshamn play 13 times since July, winning just five games.

Apart from February, it’s fair to say that this has been a disappointing campaign - on the main tour at least. His win percentage for the year is just 40% and his seasonal average is 89.37.

Niels Zonneveld has averaged slightly higher at 92.15 over the year and justifiably starts the favourite. He’s enjoyed a few decent runs this year and in his last 34 matches he’s won 19.

On TV he’s look good too. He reached the last 16 of the UK Open, falling to Keane Barry, and while he was eliminated in his opening game at the Players Championship Finals to Dave Chisnall, he averaged 98.05 and gave ‘Chizzy’ plenty to think about.

Zonneveld has appeared on an upward curve this year and I think he’ll come out victorious in this one.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-1

Jose De Sousa (4/6) vs Simon Whitlock (11/10) (R2)

Head to Head (TV): 3-2 (2-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 1-2 (1-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 94.75 - 92.72
180s per leg (2022): 0.31 - 0.33
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 36.58% - 36.90%
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 12.40% - 8.46%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 28.93% - 27.03%

Former runner-up Simon Whitlock was arguably a shade lucky to come through a tough encounter against Christian Perez in the opening round with an average of just 87.25 in a five-set win.

That was only his second victory in his last five matches, the other being a victory over the same opponent in the group stages of the Grand Slam of Darts.

His latest performance was a bit of an outlier as in six of seven matches prior to that he’d averaged 97+.

The Wizard always seems to reinvent himself just as you start writing him off and during Australia’s World Cup triumph he was very much the talisman of the team during that weekend.

Jose De Sousa has also been on a bit of a downward curve this year. He failed to qualify for the Grand Slam of Darts and lost a lot of ranking money he was unable to defend. Whilst 2022 has been a bit disappointing for the Special One, at times we have been reminded of what he’s capable of.

He reached the quarter-final of the World Matchplay, which arguably came out of the blue and he remains one of the biggest 180 hitters at 0.31 per leg over the course of the year, which is actually lower than Whitlock’s at 0.33 per leg.

There have been two big meetings on TV between these previously and Jose has won both. He won their Masters quarter-final 10-9 at the start of the year and also their Grand Slam semi-final 16-12 back when De Sousa won that major. In these games there has been 31 180’s in 47 legs of darts and that’s the angle I’m taking here, in a match that could contain plenty of legs, especially with it being a second round tie.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-2