world cup golden boot preview - kylian mbappe

World Cup 2026 Golden Boot tips, top scorer predictions and best bets

Football

Tue June 02, 2026 · 1d ago

Football betting tips: World Cup top scorer

Joe Townsend

2pts e.w. Julian Alvarez (Argentina) to finish as top scorer at 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w. Viktor Gyokeres (Sweden) to finish as top scorer at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)

Jimmy 'The Punt'

0.5pt e.w. Darwin Nunez (Uruguay) to finish as top scorer at 80/1 (BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3,4)

0.5pt e.w. Luis Díaz (Colombia) to finish as top scorer at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)

0.5pt e.w. Luis Suarez (Colombia) to finish as top scorer at 60/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4)

Jake Osgathorpe

4pts e.w. Kylian Mbappé (France) to finish as top scorer at 6/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w. Raphinha (Brazil) to finish as top scorer at 30/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)

0.5pt e.w. Breel Embolo (Switzerland) to finish as top scorer at 125/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

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World Cup Golden Boot odds (via Sky Bet)

Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 4 Places

Kylian Mbappé - 11/2
Harry Kane - 13/2
Erling Haaland - 12/1
Lionel Messi - 14/1
Mikel Oyarzabal - 14/1
Lamine Yamal - 16/1
Cristiano Ronaldo - 18/1
Raphinha - 22/1
Ousmane Dembele - 22/1
Julian Alvarez - 28/1
Lautaro Martinez - 28/1
Vinicius Junior - 28/1
33/1 bar

Joe Townsend

The Golden Boot market is dominated by Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane, meaning opportunities abound to land some big place money.

Generally firms are paying down to fourth - some go as low as fifth, but then cut the each-way odds from 1/4 to 1/5 - and there are a couple of strikers I think have a great opportunity of being in the mix, especially JULIAN ALVAREZ.

julian alvarez - champions league top scorers

The Argentine is expected to be at the centre of a transfer tug of war this summer after another outstanding season for Atletico Madrid, one in which he was especially impressive in the Champions League, scoring 10 goals in 15 matches at a goals per 90 average of 0.73.

Only Mbappé and Kane scored more times in Europe's elite competition, but while they are 6/1 joint-favourites to finish as TOP SCORER, Alvarez is 33/1.

The 26-year-old scored four goals in 2022 as Argentina lifted the World Cup in Qatar, finishing behind Mbappé (8) and team-mate Lionel Messi (7) in the charts.

Since then Messi has transitioned into more of a support role for the holders when needed, with Lionel Scaloni evolving the side to be built around Alvarez as they seek to become the first team to defend the trophy since Brazil in 1962.

With Group J fixtures against Algeria, Austria and Jordan to look forward to, he could fill his boots before Argentina inevitably reach the knockout stage, with it likely he will inherit penalty duties if his legendary captain isn't on the pitch.

Further down the betting VIKTOR GYOKERES also makes appeal at 80/1.

Sweden's decision to sack Jon Dahl Tomasson and replace him with former West Ham and Brighton boss Graham Potter proved to be a masterstroke as they thrashed Ukraine 3-0 in their play-off semi-final before beating Poland 3-2 five days later to qualify for only their second World Cup since 2006.

Much of that success was down to Gyokeres' hat-trick in the semi and late winner in the final.

The Arsenal striker found form just when his club and country needed him this calendar year, with 19 of his 25 goals this season coming since late December. Over a longer period he has thrived for Sweden, scoring 13 goals in his last 12 competitive internationals.

His team will fancy their chances of getting out of Group F, which contains an underwhelming Netherlands side, Japan and Tunisia. Gyokeres should be backed to continue his fine record against some weak defences, continuing the flat-track bully reputation he has built in recent years.

Jimmy 'The Punt'

DARWIN NUNEZ has been one of the main beneficiaries of Marcelo Bielsa's reign as Uruguay boss.

The focal point of a typically attack-minded Bielsa side, he has scored 10 times in 22 appearances under him and at 80/1 is certainly worth a punt to finish as TOP SCORER.

At the Copa America, Uruguay topped the charts for both chances created and shots. They could score plenty at this World Cup, helped by being in a Group H that contains Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, as well as Spain.

I also fancy Colombia to score a few goals this summer.

The bulk of the reasoning is in my Group K preview but the headlines are their 28 goals in qualification (2nd most in CONMEBOL), 12 at the Copa America (1st) and their settled front three.

Colombia and Sporting Lisbon forward Luis Suarez

Colombia duo Luis Suarez (L) and Luis Diaz (R)

LUIS DIAZ, James Rodriguez and LUIS SUAREZ (not that one) are the trio expected to start this summer. Both the former and the latter appeal in the TOP SCORER market at 50/1 and 60/1 respectively.

Diaz scored 26 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich this season and netted seven in qualification. He’s never been to a World Cup but has scored six goals in 14 Copa America appearances.

Suarez only started one game in qualification but netted four goals. Four goals Luis? That's insane. And across the last two league campaigns, he’s scored 55 goals in the Spanish second tier and Portuguese top flight.

The only snag is neither is expected to take penalties.

Kylian Mbappe won the Golden Boot at the 2022 World Cup

Kylian Mbappe won the Golden Boot in Qatar

Jake Osgathorpe

I'm not one to shy away from the front of this betting market with KYLIAN MBAPPÉ TO BE TOP SCORER yet again most certainly worth backing, even at 6/1, after waltzing to the award four years ago.

He is his side's penalty taker and the spearhead of an insanely talented cast featuring Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Rayan Cherki and Désiré Doué among others, so will get ample chances to add to his World Cup scoring tally.

Mbappé has 12 goals in just 14 games across two tournaments, only four shy of Germany legend Miroslav Klose's (16) all-time record.

He could feast against Iraq and a possibly very attack-minded Norway before a favourable last-32 tie, with the bonus about backing a player for one of the favourites being the increased chance they go deep into the tournament and thus get more games.

Fresh from another sensational season for Real Madrid, netting 43 in 56 appearances across all competitions, winning both the Pachichi (La Liga top scorer) and finishing as the Champions League top scorer, he looks well placed to defend his Golden Boot and fire France towards glory.

A little further down the betting and RAPHINHA looks overpriced TO BE TOP SCORER at 30/1. He will be Brazil's biggest goal threat but is priced behind Vinicius Junior who never produces for his country.

Raphinha had an injury-hit season meaning he's light on workload, but still managed to score 21 times in 33 appearances, averaging 0.84 goals per 90 in La Liga, while for his nation he top-scored in qualifying with five.

The Barcelona winger is on penalty duty too, and Brazil's group contains one of the lowest-ranked teams at the tournament in Haiti plus a Scotland side who will afford Seleção plenty of the ball and thus plenty of shooting opportunities; there's also the added bonus of Morocco losing their excellent manager in March.

Finally, in a three-tiered approach we'll round off with a triple-figure price in BREEL EMBOLO TO BE TOP SCORER at 125/1.

We have seen some big-priced players perform over the last few editions of the World Cup, with Olivier Giroud (66/1), Denis Cheryshev (200/1+) and James Rodriguez (150/1+) all earning place returns, the latter winning the Golden Boot in 2014. Wesley Sneijder was likely another triple-figure price to place in 2010 but I couldn't find any odds to confirm that.

Embolo is Switzerland's starting striker and has developed his game impressively over the last few years, culminating in him scoring four times in six qualifiers.

Since returning, probably too early, from injury for Euro 2024, he has scored 10 goals in 17 appearances for his nation.

Breel Embolo was all smiles in a recent Switzerland friendly

Fresh off a good season for Rennes where he scored eight times and averaged 0.43 xG per 90, he looks well placed for a good tournament for a dangerous Switzerland who, crucially, have a good group for Embolo to rack up some goals.

An added bonus could be the surprise that he's in contention for penalty duty after taking the first of two in a pre-tournament friendly win over Jordan, with Granit Xhaka (the previous main penalty taker) taking the second. That could be a small bonus for us, while the weak group is a big bonus.

They are in Group B alongside Qatar, Bosnia and Canada, with all three sides having questionable defences, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see the Swiss and Embolo make light work of their opponents en route to topping the group.

***Note, after publication it was reported that Embolo had been blocked from entering the US due to a delay in his visa, so while this should be sorted in the coming days, if it doesn't, anyone who placed the bet is advised to cash out.

Odds correct at 14:00 BST (02/06/26)

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