The accusation that England’s “second-game fever”, to use Jude Bellingham’s description, always leads to a forgettable game is completely wrong.
The soul-destroying draws against Algeria, USA and now Ghana are too harrowing to be forgotten, inflicting a small scar on the national psyche.
The ones that are truly forgettable are the routine victories, the tedious and infuriating “job done” games. A year from now most of us won’t be able to recall what the score was against Panama.
A fair few won’t remember who England’s final opponents in Group L even were.
But that doesn’t mean we can afford to ignore the turgid opening hour of England’s 2-0 win on Saturday evening, nor the increasingly familiar issues (namely cautious full-backs, out-of-form wingers, sluggish football against low blocks, and a surprising vulnerability to counter-attacks) because, unfortunately for Thomas Tuchel, England’s last-32 opponent follows a trend.
The only nation at this year’s World Cup to hold less possession on average than DR Congo’s 30.6% is Ghana, with 29.6%.
That’s a serious problem for England, because counterintuitively the tournament should get easier for Tuchel’s side the deeper they get.
Mexico, their likeliest last-16 opponent, have been shoddier than their three wins suggest and will be drawn out by their home advantage, mimicking the openness of England’s 4-2 victory over Croatia.
Brazil in the quarter-finals and Argentina in the semi-finals would likely follow, two nations with obvious flaws when faced with elite-level counter-attacks of the sort Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham and Anthony Gordon can inspire.
But it would be hubristic in the extreme to think that far ahead. Congo, who drew 1-1 with a static and laboured Portugal in their opener, will have watched England’s two-and-a-half hour goalless run across the Ghana and Panama fixtures with great interest.
They will know to double down on the low block – and they will feel confident that Yoane Wissa and Cédric Bakambu can take better advantage of the counter opportunities that are bound to arise.
The defensive issues are mounting. José Luis Rodríguez got the better of Jarell Quansah over and over again before his injury put England onto their third right-back of the tournament, Djed Spence.
Congo will hit that zone hard.
Tuchel will need Declan Rice back to his best anchoring midfield with Elliot Anderson – and, once again, he will need to ignore the noise and preach caution.
Ghana only threatened after Eberechi Eze came off the bench to leave Rice alone at the base of midfield, which is the formation Tuchel started with against Panama, hence the danger they posed.
Supporters won’t like it, but the priority has to be stunting counter-attacks at source with slow and measured possession football, especially as injuries pile up.
The knock-on effect could be another turgid game, defined again by full-backs refusing to commit forward (Nico O’Reilly should invert, Spence should form a back three), leading directly to crowded-out wingers and a quiet Kane.
Congo have kept 29 clean sheets in 57 games under Sebastien Desabre. When able to call upon Europe-based players, his team have never lost by more than a one-goal margin.
It would be a mistake to pack the team with attackers, as if personnel can solve a structural issue, just as it would be a mistake to assume England will breeze through this fixture.
Congo are the worst kind of opponent for Tuchel’s England to face. The evidence of that is irrefutable at this point, the only good news being that they should look transformed – freer, more confident, more talented – when higher-quality opposition come at them.
Before then, the hope is that Bellingham or Kane come up with a decisive moment.
The hope is that, a year or two from now, nobody can remember anything about how England found themselves up against Mexico in the last 16.
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
- World Cup Acca
- World Cup betting guide
- Group A: Mexico; South Africa; South Korea; Czechia
- Group B: Canada; Bosnia; Qatar; Switzerland
- Group C: Brazil; Morocco; Haiti; Scotland
- Group D: USA; Paraguay; Australia; Turkiye
- Group E: Germany; Curacao; Ivory Coast; Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands; Japan; Sweden; Tunisia
- Group G: Belgium; Egypt; Iran; New Zealand
- Group H: Spain; Cape Verde; Saudi Arabia; Uruguay
- Group I: France; Senegal; Iraq; Norway
- Group J: Argentina; Algeria; Austria; Jordan
- Group K: Portugal; DR Congo; Uzbekistan; Colombia
- Group L: England; Croatia; Ghana; Panama
- Outright preview
- Golden Boot preview
- Golden Ball preview
- FREE World Cup wallchart
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- World Cup: All you need to know
- Fixtures, results and live scores
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