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Luke Littler and Stephen Bunting

Premier League Darts 2025: Night four predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and Sky Sports TV time

By Chris Hammer and James Cooper

Darts

Thu February 27, 2025 · 2w ago

The BetMGM Premier League Darts regular season continues in Exeter on Thursday so check out our match-by-match guide to the action.

Premier League night four: Who wins in Exeter?

1pt Michael van Gerwen to win the night at 8/1 (Betway)

By Chris Hammer

Ahead of each week of the Premier League season, James Cooper's predictive model, which is based on player performance data, will be used to chart each player's potential opponent and give a percentage chance of them beating each one, as well as forecasting the likelihood of them winning the whole night.

As you can see from Coops' probabilities this week, Luke Littler is once again the most likely nightly champion and for the first time this season finds himself in a half of the draw that doesn't contain either of the other members of the 'big three'.

Gerwyn Price might soon turn that into a 'big four' but the Iceman isn't in Littler's half either so all logical signs point to the 18-year-old ending up in his second final of the campaign.

Stephen Bunting proved he's got what it takes to beat him - especially in a shorter format - during the Bahrain Darts Masters but he's currently out of form while neither Nathan Aspinall nor Chris Dobey have given us enough reasons to think they would trouble Littler if the Nuke produces his usual kind of performance.

MVG, Price and Humphries all have so which one of those do I feel the safest bet to be there in the Exeter finale?

Price is obviously dangerous after beating both Littler and Humphries en route to glory in Dublin last week but it's perhaps asking too much of him to power his way through the toughest route possible yet again.

Van Gerwen has unleashed some big averages so far and should make it four quarter-final wins out of four when he comes up against a stuttering Rob Cross and he'll have a point to prove against either of his next opponents as he bids to reach his first final of the campaign.

MVG is widely available at 11/2 but Betway's 8/1 is just too good to ignore considering the levels he's been producing and the fact he has a win over Littler in week one.

CLICK HERE to back MVG to win night four with Sky Bet

Night four quarter-final stats & tips: Thursday, February 27

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
Format: Quarter-Finals, best of 11 legs
Venue: Westpoint Arena, Exeter

SL ACCA: 1pt MVG, Price (+1.5), Dobey & Littler all to win at 5/1 with Sky Bet

Michael van Gerwen (1/2) v Rob Cross (6/4)

Head-to-Head: 29-12 (TV: 21-9)
Average (2025 overall): 99.24 – 97.42
180s per leg (2025 overall): 0.32 - 0.27
Checkout % (2025 overall): 39.29% - 42.79%

By James Cooper

BEST BET: 2pts under 5.5 match 180s at 4/5 (General)

Dublin continued a rather frustrating Premier League sequence for Michael van Gerwen in that he failed to build on an impressive opening performance in his semi-final match against Nathan Aspinall.

Last week’s reversal was the most unexpected of the trio and it was a rather limp effort against a fired-up Aspinall, who played with more freedom having got his campaign up and running in a nervy match against Rob Cross.

I referenced in last week’s article that rather against the grain, MVG was hitting 180s at a much higher rate than his year-long figure and as in often the case, he reverted to type in Dublin.

Van Gerwen hit just the solitary 180 in 10 legs against Chris Dobey and that was also the case in his semi-final defeat comprising nine legs

A brilliant treble 19 hitter, the Dutchman is more than happy to switch or even start at the bottom of the board and in Rob Cross, we have another very low maximum hitter relative to his ability.

It wasn’t the scoring element of the game that deserted Cross last week but a pitiful 3/22 return on the doubles.

Voltage is becoming increasingly hard to predict and MVG won’t allow him as many chances at Aspinall did to close out a leg.

With that in mind, the “expected” legs total for this match may not be hit if Van Gerwen hits the ground running for the fourth night in a row, which will help the cause when siding with the UNDER 5.5 180s wager.

A combined 0.52 180s per leg is the lowest we’ll see for two players in this year’s Premier League and while the 5.5 quote reflects that to some extent, I’d still rather be a seller than a buyer at that line.

Score prediction: 6-2

CLICK HERE to back under 5.5 180s with Sky Bet

CLICK HERE to bet on MVG v Cross with Sky Bet

Gerwyn Price (6/4) v Luke Humphries (1/2)

Head-to-Head: 10-9, 1 draw (TV: 3-6, 1 draw)
Average (2025 overall): 97.59 – 98.10
180s per leg (2025 overall): 0.32 - 0.27
Checkout % (2025 overall): 42.51% - 44.03%

By Chris Hammer

Gerwyn Price hasn't looked this confident for quite some time and that's why we're seeing the Iceman becoming a blockbusting force once again.

He beat Luke Littler for the fifth time in a row last week with an average of 102.6 and then backed it up with victories over Luke Humphries and Nathan Aspinall to pick up his maiden nightly title of the season.

Humphries was well below his best against Price during the 6-3 defeat as he averages just 93 compared to the 103 he managed against Stephen Bunting in the previous round so I'd expect him to come out all guns blazing in a bid to gain his revenge.

Price though has averaged 99 or higher in seven of his last 11 games in all competitions which shows his consistency is coming back and together with his fired-up belief, I reckon he could snatch a tight encounter.

Score prediction: 6-5

CLICK HERE to bet on Price v Humphries with Sky Bet

Chris Dobey (8/11) v Nathan Aspinall (11/10)

Head-to-Head: 3-8 (TV: 1-5)
Average (2025 overall): 96.13 – 94.53
180s per leg (2025 overall): 0.40 - 0.33
Checkout % (2025 overall): 39.73% - 37.41%

By Chris Hammer

Nathan Aspinall turned up in Dublin last week out of form and full of a cold, so a third successive quarter-final defeat seemed on the cards.

An average of 85 would have seem him lose to anyone else but thankfully for the Asp, he came up against Rob Cross who missed 14 darts at a double in the opening two legs and never really recovered as Aspinall ran out a 6-3 winner.

That hit of winning adrenaline was exactly what the Stockport ace needed as he produced an average of almost 100 from absolutely nowhere to stun a surprisingly below-par MVG by the same scoreline in the semi-finals.

An inconsistent night from a statistical perspective ended with a 90 average in a 6-3 defeat to Gerwyn Price and while a three-point haul will have been morale-boosting, I'm not sure it's enough to expect regular victories to come his way.

Chris Dobey is in much better form overall having also won a Players Championship event recently in which he averaged over 100 in four of his seven matches, while his back-to-back quarter-final defeats in the Premier League have come against Luke Humphries and MVG.

Although he won't underestimate the Asp, this clash - which could well see plenty of 180s - is an easier challenge than his last two games and he'll view it as an ideal opportunity to get another two points on the board.

Score prediction: 6-3

CLICK HERE to bet on Dobey v Aspinall with Sky Bet

Stephen Bunting (5/2) v Luke Littler (2/7)

Head-to-Head: 2-2 (TV: 1-1)
Average (2025 overall): 96.69 – 100.75
180s per leg (2025 overall): 0.31 - 0.43
Checkout % (2025 overall): 42.34% - 40.86%

By James Cooper

BEST BET: 2pts Over 115.5 match checkout at 5/6 (bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)

By his own exalted standards, an event win and a brace of quarter-final exits is probably par at best for Luke Littler.

Rightly though, a lot has been made of his sky-high averages, even in defeat, which suggests that opponents really do need to play at the top of the game to record the most prized scalp on the circuit at present.

In fact, a 99.78 average in defeat to Gerwyn Price in Dublin was the first time Littler has dipped below three figures per visit which hammers home the consistent levels of excellent darts from the Nuke.

The same cannot be said of Stephen Bunting, who props up the table having failed to record a win in three attempts.

His Players Championship performances in between have hardly been brimming with promise either and while Bunting will never lack for support, it’s hard to see him seriously troubling Littler on recent evidence.

One avenue that has been profitable for us featuring Bunting is the over match checkout line and while the layers have upped the target slightly (on account of his opponent) OVER 115.5 still looks a play.

We have a few things in our favour here.

Primarily, the high combined checkout percentage of the pair (above 41% is in the top 15 in the world) while both of these are elite-level bullseye hitters, which certainly helps when it comes to connecting a 121+ outshot.

Luke Littler would also be one of the more creative players around and while his penchant for double 10 doesn’t necessarily help for this bet, the rate in which he leaves a 170 finish does offer assistance.

With all match lengths best-of-11, it makes assessing this market quite easy and from a three-week sample of results, the 115.5 line has been breached 13 out of 21 times.

Score prediction: 3-6

CLICK HERE to bet on Bunting v Littler with Sky Bet

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