The Cazoo Premier League Darts season continues in Dublin on Thursday so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match guide to the action.
Darts betting tips: Premier League night four
1pt Smith v Wright to have over 8.5 legs, highest checkout to be over 101.5 and over 5.5 total 180s at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Dimitri Van den Bergh to hit most 180s at evens (General)
1pt Jonny Clayton to win and Nathan Aspinall to hit most 180s at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Chris Dobey to hit most 180s at 11/8 (Paddy Power)
SL Acca: Smith, Van den Bergh, Clayton & MVG at 8/1 with Sky Bet
Thursday February 22: Night four
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
- Format: Quarter-Finals, best of 11 legs
- Venue: Dublin
Michael Smith (4/6) v Peter Wright (6/5)
- Head to Head: 14-19, 2 draws (TV: 5-17, 2 draws)
- 2022/2023 Head to Head: 2-6 (TV: 2-4)
- PL Average: 99.08 - 99.74
- PL 180s per leg: 0.24 - 0.32
- PL checkout percentage: 43.66% - 32.25%
- Legs won with 100+ checkout: 22.58% - 40%
Top faces in bottom in the opening match in Dublin but it could be a lot closer than the early table suggests.
Michael Smith is understandably the favourite having triumphed in Glasgow last week with a couple of tremendous performances to get his Premier League campaign firmly up and running while he's now averaged 100+ in four of his six matches so far.
The world champion opted to miss last weekend's Players Championship events to get some much-needed rest after such a hectic start to the 2023 season both on and off the oche and I'd expect to see him fire on all cylinders with more 180s and high finishing.
Bully Boy threw 10 maximums in 30 legs last week having strangely only managed four across the opening couple of weeks while he weighed in with a 100+ checkout in each of his three matches in Glasgow.
Peter Wright is without a win in the Premier League and although I fear that run may continue for him given Smith's form, he actually hasn't played too badly from a scoring perspective in his three defeats. His doubling might have been sloppy, but he's still managed to find four 100+ checkouts in his 10 winning legs.
The duo can combine here to hit Sky Bet's Match Action targets of over 8.5 legs, highest checkout to be over 101.5 and over 5.5 total 180s.
Scoreline prediction: 6-5
Gerwyn Price (8/15) v Dimitri Van den Bergh (11/8)
- Head to Head: 10-5, (TV: 5-3)
- 2022/2023 Head to Head: 2-1 (TV: 2-1)
- PL Average: 93.81 - 97.39
- PL 180s per leg: 0.22 - 0.33
- PL checkout percentage: 37.87% - 50%
- Legs won with 100+ checkout: 8% - 6.66%
Gerwyn Price followed up his glorious Cardiff homecoming a fortnight ago with a nightmare trip to Glasgow as he averaged just short of 90 in a scrappy quarter-final defeat to eventual champion Michael Smith and it's hard to know what to expect from him at the moment.
He's yet to produce his blockbuster best from an average perspective in any of the three weeks so far - with a best of 97.32 from his five games played - although he did find some higher levels and consistency during the Pro Tour weekend.
Dimitri Van den Bergh enjoyed an encouraging run in Glasgow last and treated the fans to a stunning 6-1 win over Nathan Aspinall in which he averaged 105.73 while he almost lived with Michael Smith's 109.42 in the final only to lose 6-4.
As you'd expect, the Belgian is hitting maximums significantly more frequently than Price at 0.33 per leg compared to the Welshman's 0.22 and that's the only area of this match I think there will be a clear winner.
Scoreline prediction: 4-6
Jonny Clayton (8/11) v Nathan Aspinall (11/10)
- Head to Head: 4-4, 1 draw (TV: 1-1, 1 draw)
- 2022 Head to Head: 1-0 (TV: 0-0)
- PL Average: 97.89 - 96.29
- PL 180s per leg: 0.20 - 0.35
- PL checkout percentage: 53.65% - 35.55%
- Legs won with 100+ checkout: 20% - 9.3%
Jonny Clayton looks as though he's about to embark on a hot streak of form after a stuttering start to the season and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him to win the night - let alone this quarter-final.
The Ferret was playing pretty well despite his struggles to pick up victories but last week averaged 102.56 in a 6-1 thumping of Chris Dobey, who averaged 101.6, and produced another fine display in a narrow 6-5 defeat to Michael Smith.
At the weekend's Pro Tour events he averaged 100+ in five of his eight matches, including a high of 111.95 on Saturday and a 104.48 on Sunday when losing to eventual Players Championship 4 champion Dirk van Duijvenbode, who reached 108.08 in that game.
This level of consistency will serve him well and I fancy him to get the better of Nathan Aspinall despite his opponent winning more Premier League matches so far this season.
The Asp stunned Michael van Gerwen 6-5 in a scrappy contest last Thursday but averaged 88.18 in a crushing 6-1 defeat to Dimitri Van den Bergh in the semi-finals. He blew hot and cold at the weekend too so that's why I'm siding with the more consistent player of the pair right now.
Aspinall, however, has been hitting 180s more prolifically than Clayton on the stage and the floor this season, with 0.35 per leg in the Premier League and 0.31 on the Pro Tour while the Welshman's respective ratios are 0.20 and 0.28.
Scoreline prediction: 6-4
Chris Dobey (9/4) v Michael van Gerwen (1/3)
- Head to Head: 2-12 (TV: 2-3)
- 2022/2023 Head to Head: 2-3 (TV: 2-2)
- PL Average: 96.54 - 101.14
- PL 180s per leg: 0.25 - 0.27
- PL checkout percentage: 37.50% - 47.82%
- Legs won with 100+ checkout: 12.50% - 18.18%
Michael van Gerwen has played well enough overall to be sitting pretty at the top of the early Premier League table but that shock opening night defeat to Chris Dobey knocked him off his stride and will now be out for revenge.
This short format is a leveller even when he's averaging as high as 110 like he did against Gerwyn Price the following week when he spurned two match darts in the deciding leg, while he was well below his best during a scrappy defeat to Nathan Aspinall in Glasgow.
We often say "beware the wounded animal" when MVG suffers setbacks but at the moment I'd be cautious lumping on him at odds-on prices, especially against a player who finally knows how to beat him.
Dobey scored very well against Jonny Clayton last week but despite averaging almost 102, he missed nine of his 10 double attempts and can't afford to be that wasteful if he's to pick up two more points in Dublin.
The bet I fancy in this one is the Northumberland ace to hit most 180s despite the fact he's managed just one in his last two matches (18 legs). Those were very much outliner performances from a maximum perspective considering how prolific he usually is above the 0.30 per leg mark, whereas MVG's 0.27 per leg in the Premier League is pretty much par for him.
Scoreline prediction: 4-6
Premier League Darts 2023: Table, Averages, 180s and checkout statistics
- After week three
TOURNAMENT AVERAGE
- Michael van Gerwen: 101.14
- Peter Wright: 99.74
- Michael Smith: 99.08
- Jonny Clayton: 97.89
- Dimitri Van den Bergh: 97.39
- Chris Dobey: 96.54
- Nathan Aspinall: 96.29
- Gerwyn Price: 93.81
MOST 180s & 180s PER LEG
- Nathan Aspinall: 23 (0.35)
- Dimitri Van den Bergh: 18 (0.33)
- Michael van Gerwen: 17 (0.27)
- Michael Smith: 14 (0.24)
- Chris Dobey: 12 (0.25)
- Gerwyn Price: 11 (0.22)
- Peter Wright: 9 (0.32)
- Jonny Clayton: 7 (0.20)
DOUBLES AND CHECKOUT PERCENTAGE
- Jonny Clayton: 22/41 (53.65%)
- Dimitri Van den Bergh: 30/60 (50%)
- Michael van Gerwen: 33/69 (47.82%)
- Michael Smith: 31/71 (43.66%)
- Gerwyn Price: 25/66 (37.87%)
- Chris Dobey: 24/64 (37.50%)
- Nathan Aspinall: 32/90 (35.55%)
- Peter Wright: 10/31 (32.25%)
100+ CHECKOUTS, HIGHEST CHECKOUTS & % LEGS WON WITH 100+ CHECKOUT
- Michael Smith: 7 (22.58% legs won with 100+ checkout)
100+ Checkouts: 148, 140, 137, 122, 121x2, 115 - Michael van Gerwen: 6 (18.18%)
100+ Checkouts: 170, 142, 114, 112, 106, 105 - Peter Wright: 4 (40%)
100+ Checkouts: 156, 133, 122, 121 - Nathan Aspinall: 3 (9.3%)
100+ Checkouts: 136, 130, 110 - Chris Dobey: 3 (12.50%)
100+ Checkouts: 170, 160, 121 - Gerwyn Price: 2 (8%)
100+ Checkouts: 116, 106 - Dimitri Van den Bergh: 2 (6.66%)
100+ Checkouts: 127, 121 - Jonny Clayton: 1 (20%)
100+ Checkouts: 120CLICK HERE FOR THE PREMIER LEAGUE DARTS FIXTURES!
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