Michael van Gerwen (Picture: Kieran Cleeves/PDC)

PDC World Darts Championship 2024: Day five predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Tue December 19, 2023 · 2y ago

The 2024 Paddy Power World Darts Championship continues at the Alexandra Palace with two sessions on Tuesday so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

Darts betting tips: World Championship day five

1pt Tomoya Goto (+1.5) to beat Ian White at 13/5 (General)

1pt Keegan Brown to beat Boris Krcmar at 13/8 (Betfair)

1pt Wade and Campbell to have 2+ 180s each and a 100+ checkout each at 11/8 (Paddy Power)

1pt Mike de Decker to win and hit 5+ 180s at 5/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Beaton to win and Nijman hit most 180s at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt over 3.5 sets in MVG v Barry at 5/4 (Paddy Power)

SL Acca: Brown (+1.5), De Decker, Pietreczko (-2.5) and Beaton (+1.5) all to win at 11/2 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

http://media.paddypower.com/redirect.aspx?pid=13194133&bid=7330

Afternoon Session (1230 GMT)

TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: First round/second round, best of five sets

Ian White (1/7) v Tomoya Goto (4/1) (R1)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 93.79 - 85.92
180s per leg (2023): 0.20 - 0.21
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 38.02% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 10.39% - 10.04%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 16.22% - Unavailable

Former world championship 'dark horse' Ian White will probably go down as one of the best players never to truly shine on the televised stage - especially not on this one.

Diamond, who has won 13 PDC tournaments away from the cameras, has only managed to win one match at the Ally Pally in his last four appearances here but more worrying is his slide down the rankings to 55 having struggled to qualify for many majors over the past couple of seasons - including last year's World Championship.

White only averaged 82 in a first-round exit at the Players Championship Finals last month and although that's over 10 points lower than his season mark, he's not banging in those massive 100+ figures of old on a regular basis.

Tomoya Goto is another potentially dangerous opponent from the Asian Tour and back in September beat Monday's Ally Pally hero Man-Lok Leung 4-3, Reynaldo Rivera 5-0 and Paolo Nebrida 5-1 with averages ranging from 92.30 to 100.21 on his way to a title, and finished second to Lourence Ilagan in the overall standings. Having seen all three of those in action in the past few days, that's a pretty good form guide.

White should have enough but I wouldn't be surprised to see this go to a deciding set - and if it does, then the favourite could suffer again with Ally Pally nerves. It'll just be about how Goto can cope with the pressure, too.

Score Prediction: 3-2

CLICK HERE to back Goto (+1.5) with Sky Bet

Ritchie Edhouse (4/11) v Jeffrey de Graaf (4/1) (R1)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 91.30 - 86.62
180s per leg (2023): 0.21 - 0.18
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 29.03% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 11.90% - Unavailable
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 13.33% - Unavailable

Ritchie Edhouse is a steady operator on the PDC circuit and arrives at the Ally Pally bidding to reach round two for the third time in four attempts.

The gulf in class between his seasonal average on the PDC circuit and Jeffrey de Graaf's efforts on the PDC Nordic & Baltic Tour doesn't feel wide enough to be overly confident about an easy whitewash win, while the Swede has also managed a few 90+ displays in the Modus Super Series this month.

De Graff did last appear on this stage in the 2019 edition when averaging just 78 in a 3-2 defeat to Noel Malicdem - a result which saw him lose his Tour Card - but if he can push towards the 90s on this occasion, he has a fighting chance.

Score Prediction: 3-1

Keegan Brown (6/4) v Boris Krcmar (1/2) (R1)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 89.37 - 92.05
180s per leg (2023): 0.17 - 0.17
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 36.57% - 35.29
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 14.45% - 13.21%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 14.12% - 7.69%

Keegan Brown scraped into his eighth World Championship by taking the 32nd and final spot on the Pro Tour list of qualifiers - 12 months on from a first-round exit at the Ally Pally which saw him lose his Tour Card.

Brown won it back at Q School but has spent the year arduously climbing back up the rankings to a current spot of 99 which is perhaps an unfair reflection of his true standing in the world.

The Isle of Wight thrower, who signed with Red Dragon in September, has claimed some notable wins this year including victory over Gerwyn Price at the World Series of Darts Finals and while he's not managed any big averages of late, I feel he can be dangerous for an erratic Boris Krcmar.

The Croatian, who has to come through the last ditch qualifying event after finishing outside the Pro Tour list, averaged 78 and 92 in his two Ally Pally matches last year - the latter coming in a plucky defeat to Nathan Aspinall - which just about sums him up and I just feel over the set play format he's too unreliable to be a favourite.

Score Prediction: 3-1

CLICK HERE to back Brown to win with Sky Bet

James Wade (1/4) v Matt Campbell (11/4) (R2)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 94.55 - 90.58
180s per leg (2023): 0.21 - 0.11
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 41.54% - 39.16%
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 13.58% - 11.40%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 19.05% - 7.00%

James Wade won't have been happy to see Matt Campbell survive a scare against Lourence Ilagan because the Canadian is clearly a dangerous operator.

Campbell averaged 93.14 and fired in seven maximums in just 21 legs, which is a lot higher than his seasonal 180 per leg ratio, so the Machine can't afford to be complacent whatsoever.

Wade's ability to win matches without churning out a string of 100+ averages like many of his contemporaries is legendary and this season he reached the European Championship final and the last four of the Grand Slam of Darts.

His rate of 100+ checkouts per leg won is among the most prolific on tour while Campbell managed three of them himself against Ilagan and will be forced to take some of these big chances to put pressure on Wade.

If it's a lengthy contest like I expect then both should weigh in with a couple of maximums each despite not being the most heavy scoring players.

Score Prediction: 3-2

Evening Session (1900 GMT)

TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: First round/second round, best of five sets

Steve Beaton (5/4) v Wessel Nijman (4/7) (R1)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 91.57 - 92.74
180s per leg (2023): 0.20 - 0.33
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 38.95% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 13.98% - 8.74%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 16.00% - Unavailable

Now this is a fascinating encounter.

On one side you have a legendary crowd favourite who has played the game with such sportsmanship and integrity since the 1980s and is now making his 33rd consecutive World Championship appearance, including 23 in the PDC. Words can't do his longevity justice, can they?

Standing in front of him is a 23-year-old who has already served a two-and-a-half year ban for match fixing.

Despite his lack of big-stage experience, the Dutchman is a warm favourite to win and it's no real surprise when you look at some of the averages he's been posting on the Development Tour, where he's also been firing in 180s at a rate of 0.33 per leg.

He frequently visits the realms of 100 and even managed a high of 113 earlier this year and also produced some stunning displays in the World Youth Championship, before narrowly bowing out to Gian Van Veen in the semi-finals with a 102 average.

But, will he handle a very pro-Beaton crowd to say the least? The Bronzed Adonis is very consistent in that 88 to 95 range and while he lacks those explosive performances at this stage of his career, I feel this could be a big occasion where experience is key.

Score Prediction: 3-2

CLICK HERE to back Beaton to win and Nijman hit most 180s with Sky Bet

Mike De Decker (4/11) v Dragutin Horvat (2/1) (R1)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 93.40 - 87.19
180s per leg (2023): 0.31 - 0.13
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 37.57% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 9.95% - 4.88%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 23.08% - Unavailable

Mike De Decker has enjoyed another season of progress as he continues to climb closer to the world's top 32 and I'd expect to him make fairly light work of Dragutin Horvat.

The Belgian has reached the second round in each of the last two Ally Pally campaigns only to fall at the next hurdle but this is the first time he arrives here with a lot more big stage experience having qualified for the World Matchplay and World Grand Prix.

Admittedly he crashed out early of both - as well as the Players Championship Finals - but Horvat has precious little televised experience apart from the 2017 World Championship, which he lost 3-0 to Simon Whitlock following a prelim win.

Horvat is here after winning the Europe Super League in which he averaged in the 80s for all but three of his 14 games while he's also plied his trade on the Challenge Tour.

He's got the ability to make the sets close - and perhaps even pinch one - and that should give prolific 180 hitter De Decker enough legs to hit five maximums in victory.

Score Prediction: 3-1

CLICK HERE to back De Decker to win and hit 5+ 180s with Sky Bet

Ricardo Pietreczko (1/10) v Mikuru Suzuki (11/2) (R1)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 93.91 - 78.70
180s per leg (2023): 0.20 - 0.10
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 40.84% - N/A
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 13.98% - 7.92
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 16.39% - Unavailable

All hopes of a female player reaching the post-Christmas stage of the World Championship all rest of Mikuru Suzuki following the exit of Fallon Sherrock but it's hard to see her progressing against one of the fast improvers on the PDC circuit.

Suzuki has only averaged above 85 in seven her last 50 matches and only two of those were higher than 90, including an effort of 100.65, so she'll need to produce one of her finest displays to trouble Ricardo Pietreczko.

The German, who produced a stunning display of finishing to win his maiden European Tour title back in October, visibly imploded during a 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Beau Greaves at the Grand Slam of Darts but he's been regularly reaching thee-figure averages - especially in recent months - and will be far too strong.

Score Prediction: 3-0

Michael van Gerwen (1/14) v Keane Barry (13/2) (R2)

Three-Dart Average (2023): 98.09 - 92.70
180s per leg (2023): 0.28 - 0.17
Checkout % (PDC Stage Events 2023): 40.12% - 38.42%
100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 11.73% - 12.08%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 21.77% - 15.56%

Michael van Gerwen begins his campaign tonight and many will expect him to make a pretty smooth start to his quest for a fourth world title.

However, one of the reasons I'm not backing MVG to lift the Sid Waddell Trophy on January 3 is those very beatable 'C' and 'B' games of his which resulted in early exits at the World Matchplay, World Grand Prix and Grand Slam of Darts this season.

If he produces one of those below-par displays then Keane Barry has a punchers chance of getting at least one set on the board although he'll have to play significantly better than he did against Reynaldo Rivera last time out.

In the past three years, Chas Barstow and Ryan Murray have managed to pinch sets off MVG in the second round here - the latter managing it despite his opponent averaging 108 for the match - and Barry is a superior player to both of them with a bright future in the game.

Score Prediction: 3-1