Football betting tips: World Cup
2pts Over 2.5 goals at 19/20 (BetVictor)
The opening contest in Group F is likely to go a long way in deciding who wins it. Netherlands enter the tournament as favourites to come out on top of the four, with Japan seen as their nearest challengers.
While there is an argument to be made that some managers may just view this as a 32-team knockout, with the group stage a mere warm-up for it, there is a clear advantage to finishing top here given the bracket.
One of Morocco or Scotland is likely to await in the round of 32 with the Group A or Group B runner-up in the round of 16 after that. Finish second and Brazil should await at the first hurdle - a far tougher test despite split opinion on their current strength.
Finishing second may put you on what could be viewed as the 'easier' half of the bracket but that's irrelevant should you fail at the first attempt. Win here and you're well on your way to the quarter-finals.
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Temperatures which feel like 40 degrees celsius are forecast in Arlington, Texas on Sunday as is rain. Yet a closed roof at the stadium will help to keep things in check.
It almost halves the outside temperature to 22/23 degrees celsius inside. Far more comfortable conditions for playing a game and it allows for the teams to keep their intense styles of play.
That also includes the attacking side of things and the shade of odds-on for OVER 2.5 GOALS in the contest is certainly appealing.
Even if the roof were open with the early Texas summer weather present, it's still a bet I'd look towards given some recent studies have highlighted how hotter climates can lead to more goals. Defenders are more prone to lapses of concentration while marking at set-pieces becomes more difficult too.
And it's still going to be pretty warm, even if not the near unbearable figures outside.
The Netherlands enjoyed a strong qualification campaign. The 27 goals scored across eight games with just four conceded gave them the second-best goal difference (+23) in all of European qualifying.
They may have faced Malta and Lithuania yet they didn't take it easy knowing it'd be a straightforward win. It was a chance for the attacking players to star and they made the most of that opportunity.
In Japan, they face a side whose first stage of qualifying delivered six wins from six with 24 goals scored and none conceded; the next returning 23 points from a possible 30 and a +27 goal difference.
While the two warm-up games for the Netherlands may not have been as clear-cut as they would have hoped, they created chances worth 6.81 expected goals (xG) and while two of those were penalties (worth around 0.77 xG each), it once again reminded us of their strength in attack.
Japan needed a late winner against Iceland but were comfortably the better of the two sides and could have scored more. At the last World Cup, they netted twice in wins over both Germany and Spain.
I do fancy this to be a high-scoring group given the presence of these two sides plus a Sweden outfit who look far more alive under Graham Potter's guidance.
A strong start in Texas will certainly help that cause.
Odds correct 13:55 BST (10/06/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
Group previews
- World Cup betting guide
- Group A: Mexico; South Africa; South Korea; Czechia
- Group B: Canada; Bosnia; Qatar; Switzerland
- Group C: Brazil; Morocco; Haiti; Scotland
- Group D: USA; Paraguay; Australia; Turkiye
- Group E: Germany; Curacao; Ivory Coast; Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands; Japan; Sweden; Tunisia
- Group G: Belgium; Egypt; Iran; New Zealand
- Group H: Spain; Cape Verde; Saudi Arabia; Uruguay
- Group I: France; Senegal; Iraq; Norway
- Group J: Argentina; Algeria; Austria; Jordan
- Group K: Portugal; DR Congo; Uzbekistan; Colombia
- Group L: England; Croatia; Ghana; Panama
Outright previews
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