Football betting tips: World Cup
1.5pts Felix Nmecha 1+ shots on target at 11/8 (bet365)
1pt Nmecha 2+ shots on target at 10/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Nmecha 2+ shots on target from outside the box at 28/1 (bet365)
Julian Nagelsmann's decision to go near-full strength for Germany's final group game came as a surprise to many, as did the Ecuador victory which followed to secure their spot in the knockout stages.
Germany knew they were there as group winners already. It was the combination number 67 of 495 which prevailed when it came to deciding the eight-best third-placed sides - Paraguay now await in Foxborough.
The South American outfit may have secured four points in Group D but they've hardly displayed an attack which suggests it'll trouble the top teams. Against the USA, the highest-ranked side of the four, Paraguay were hammered 4-1.
While the World Cup has already thrown up surprise results and will no doubt give us one or two more, it's difficult to see a game playing out which doesn't end in a comfortable Germany victory.
Deniz Undav gets his second of the game and secures the win for Germany 🇩🇪 pic.twitter.com/IRQRTbrTNH
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) June 20, 2026
It's worth noting that they haven't been hugely inspiring beyond the opening day thrashing of minnows Curacao. Deniz Undav's late strike allowed them to get the better of Côte d'Ivoire while they were beaten in that final group game, although it is worth remembering they had nothing to play for.
The likely meeting with France in the round of 16 should end their World Cup journey but on Monday night, we should expect them to at least be involved in the next round.
The 1/6 price on them qualifying though makes them difficult to back in any circumstance, even in a few accumulators for this stage of the tournament.
Instead, I'm siding with a midfielder for the third time this tournament and will continue to do so while FELIX NMECHA performs as he is. He's been Germany's best player, even if he did struggle in the Ecuador contest.
Each of his three outings have delivered at least two shots and bookmakers have him above even money for 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET, while there's 10s available for 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET - both should be taken.
Only Qatar (72), New Zealand (71) and Saudi Arabia (64) conceded more shots than Paraguay (64) in the group stages and yet they somehow got away with two clean sheets.
You feel that this becomes another game where Nmecha thrives. They'll enjoy far more of the ball and far more of the opportunities - even if Germany do rank 7th for shots taken at the tournament so far.
A small stakes play on Nmecha 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX is also made given the fact that five of his eight efforts so far have come from distance.
His ones which have been on target may have solely been from inside the area yet a few flew incredibly close. It may also help that Paraguay also rank 4th for most shots conceded from outside the box.
In a game which should be comfortable for the European nation, I'm hoping that Nmecha plays his part again.
Odds correct at 13:25 BST (28/06/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
- World Cup Acca
- World Cup betting guide
- Group A: Mexico; South Africa; South Korea; Czechia
- Group B: Canada; Bosnia; Qatar; Switzerland
- Group C: Brazil; Morocco; Haiti; Scotland
- Group D: USA; Paraguay; Australia; Turkiye
- Group E: Germany; Curacao; Ivory Coast; Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands; Japan; Sweden; Tunisia
- Group G: Belgium; Egypt; Iran; New Zealand
- Group H: Spain; Cape Verde; Saudi Arabia; Uruguay
- Group I: France; Senegal; Iraq; Norway
- Group J: Argentina; Algeria; Austria; Jordan
- Group K: Portugal; DR Congo; Uzbekistan; Colombia
- Group L: England; Croatia; Ghana; Panama
- Outright preview
- Golden Boot preview
- Golden Ball preview
- FREE World Cup wallchart
- FREE World Cup sweepstake kit
- World Cup: All you need to know
- Fixtures, results and live scores
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