Football betting tips: World Cup
1.5pts Aurélien Tchouaméni 1+ shots on target from outside the area at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Tchouaméni 2+ shots on target from outside the area at 70/1 (Sky Bet)
France have been France at this tournament - there's been no shocks about a side who have reached the previous two finals of the World Cup.
Ten goals spread evenly across their three group games saw them top it with little issue, and a meeting with a Sweden outfit which shipped five in defeat to the Netherlands will have this French attack purring.
That result came five days after Graham Potter's side were on the right side of a 5-1 scoreline. To say their tournament has been a little weird feels an understatement.
A round of 32 exit should be the outcome, although they won't be too disheartened given their shambolic qualification campaign. They'll have to put in an unusually strong defensive showing if they are to have any chance of progression.
Goals have been a feature of the Potter reign. Both teams have scored in all nine of his games at the helm with three or more returned in seven - how they keep the French attacking unit in check feels a mystery.
Maybe they have to embrace the chaos of an open game and simply try to outscore them. The fact over 3.5 goals is only 5/4 suggests the bookmakers think that could be the approach.
Naturally, it's difficult not to look at the France side of things going forward. No team has scored more than their ten goals at the tournament (at the time of writing) and yet they rank 10th for shots taken - they do bump up to 8th for efforts outside the box though.
AURELIEN TCHOUAMENI is the name to look at. He's 11/2 for 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA, with the 70s for 2+ also worth a smaller stakes play.
For full clarity, Tchouaméni was the second of two players in focus for me in this market. The other was Théo Hernández but reports indicate that they may go with Lucas Digne down that side. Kylian Mbappé is a decent pick for one coming in at around even money although I wanted something a bit more.
I'll note that if Hernández is starting, I'll also be backing his 9/1 price for at least one shot on target from outside the area alongside the huge 175/1 for two or more.
Tchouaméni's only had the single shot in this tournament so far but that was an effort from distance which sailed over the crossbar in the win over Norway. If you focus on LaLiga performances for Real Madrid, near half of his 45 shots were from outside the box.
It isn't just for his club though. Nine of his 12 shots at Euro 2024 were outside area efforts with the same applying to five of six at the World Cup in 2022.
It's interesting that he seems to have more efforts when France are involved in the knockouts. Seven of those 12 at the last knockouts weren't in the group stage, with the same applying to half of his ones in 2022.
The warm-up games delivered two shots (both from outside the area) against Northern Ireland, with one headed effort from a set-piece in 45 minutes of the defeat to Côte d'Ivoire.
I do hold some concern at how deep he can be at times yet the midfielder does get into strong attacking positions. There are occasions where he's lurking at the edge of the area and clearly backs himself to try and strike from range.
While I'd like to see more of those efforts test the goalkeeper, I'm still happy enough to side with volume. The midfielder can see chances in a game France should win.
Odds correct at 16:25 BST (29/06/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
- World Cup Acca
- World Cup betting guide
- Group A: Mexico; South Africa; South Korea; Czechia
- Group B: Canada; Bosnia; Qatar; Switzerland
- Group C: Brazil; Morocco; Haiti; Scotland
- Group D: USA; Paraguay; Australia; Turkiye
- Group E: Germany; Curacao; Ivory Coast; Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands; Japan; Sweden; Tunisia
- Group G: Belgium; Egypt; Iran; New Zealand
- Group H: Spain; Cape Verde; Saudi Arabia; Uruguay
- Group I: France; Senegal; Iraq; Norway
- Group J: Argentina; Algeria; Austria; Jordan
- Group K: Portugal; DR Congo; Uzbekistan; Colombia
- Group L: England; Croatia; Ghana; Panama
- Outright preview
- Golden Boot preview
- Golden Ball preview
- FREE World Cup wallchart
- FREE World Cup sweepstake kit
- World Cup: All you need to know
- Fixtures, results and live scores
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