jake predictions gs3

Jake Osgathorpe's 2026 World Cup tips and predictions: Group stage round three

Football
Mon June 29, 2026 · 3w ago

Jake's World Cup 2026 Predictions: Staked 86.25pts | Returned 103.32pts | P/L +17.07pts | ROI 20%

***correct as of 11:00 BST (26/6/26)

Football betting tips: World Cup

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Colombia vs Portugal

The scenario is simple for both sides, who have already qualified, likely as the top two unless DR Congo destroy Uzbekistan: a draw for Colombia sees them finish top of the group, only a win will do for Portugal.

Now why this is important is because the runner-up from this group faces the runner-up in Group L, England's group, and if they win that tie they will face the winner of Spain-Austria in the last 16. For a contender like Portugal, an early meeting with Spain wouldn't be ideal.

So, we should expect Portugal to go all out to win here and secure a much more favourable draw for the group winner, which, should they come through the round of 32 tie against a third place team, would see them take on likely Switzerland in the last 16.

This game will be competitive then, but it will also be one of the hottest games of the entire group stage - maybe even tournament. Taking place in Miami, it's set to be over 30 degrees at kick-off with a 70% humidity to boot, and that could suit Portugal more than Colombia given how the Portuguese can dominate possession for long periods with their tidy midfielders.

Colombia are at their best when playing with a high intensity and loads of pace and the weather could cancel out some of that. I'm going to recommend a small bet on LUIS DIAZ TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS here at 9/4.

Luis Diaz

Fresh from committing three against DR Congo, a game where Colombia were hanging onto a lead just as they will be hanging on to top spot in Group K here, Diaz will be tasked with pressing and disrupting any rhythm Portugal can build, being cynical and clever with his fouls.

He will be well aware of the importance of finishing top of the group and will likely pull out all the stops to help his team get over the line. He committed an average of 1.35 fouls per 90 for Bayern Munich last season across all competitions, with his average at the 2024 Copa America an impressive 2.46 per 90.

Diaz also committed 1.77 fouls per 90 in World Cup qualifying, so clearly saves his best fouling self for when he's representing his country, and in a game Colombia will be up against it for long periods, the price for him to make a couple of fouls appeals.

It's worth saying here that the referee in charge of this one is Alireza Faghani who oversaw France's 3-1 win over Senegal. In that game he waved a lot of fouls away, blowing up just 14 times in 90 minutes and showing no cards. If it were another ref in charge we'd be making a 2pt play, but given this referee likes waving away blatant fouls, it'll just bet the 1pt.

Score prediction: Colombia 1-1 Portugal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 15:40 BST (26/06/26)

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan are out after two defeats, while DR Congo are in a great position to advance, needing only to beat the already eliminated side to advance to knockouts. The Africans have been impressive in their two games against the top ranked nations in Group K.

They won the xG battle against Portugal and held Colombia to just 0.98 xG, so they should be confident of getting the win they need. Uzbekistan have been well beaten by both sides, suggesting there could be a big gap between these two sides, which makes the 4/5 for a DR Congo win appeal, but I want to take a bigger price and back DR CONGO TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 6/4.

I was tempted with the win to nil here at 2/1, but the win and under 3.5 seems the safest way in and covers the 2-1 DR Congo win. The Africans aren't a high scoring team so I don't suspect they will blow Uzbekistan away here, it'll be a very controlled 1-0 or 2-0 in my mind.

Their strength lies in defence, so should they get their noses in front we should expect them to sit in and defend what they have got - and performances against the best sides in the group suggest they are more than capable of doing that here against an Uzbekistan side who have struggled to create chances.

Score prediction: DR Congo 2-0 Uzbekistan (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 16:00 BST (26/06/26)

Algeria vs Austria

Well done FIFA. This is yet another game that ticks the mutually beneficial draw scenario - hence the draw being a best price of 5/4. Both Algeria and Austria sit on three points with Austria in second on goal difference, meaning a point sees both advance.

If either team wins they will secure second with a high chance of the loser being eliminated on three points and a minus goal difference. Does either team want to take that risk? It seems unlikely.

Again, like with Paraguay and Australia, to the smaller federations who aren't loaded with cash, just making the knockout round provides an extra £2m in prize money that can't be sniffed at.

Even at 5/4 the draw could well still be value, but it'll be no bet here for us. If anything I'd look at backing the 0-0 (17/4), 1-1 (9/2) and 2-2 correct scorelines (16/1).

Score prediction: Algeria 1-1 Austria (Sky Bet odds: 7/2)

Odds correct at 16:15 BST (26/06/26)

Jordan vs Argentina

Argentina are through as group winners, Jordan are already out - this is as classic a dead rubber as you'll get. Whether Lionel Scaloni will heavily rotate from the off is the question though, as if he does rest key players for the entirety of this game then they will have gone 11 days since last playing heading into a knockout game.

I have a hunch he will go strong-ish from the off and rotate at half-time, which could mean Lionel Messi starts again. This game being in a climate controlled stadium makes that more of a possibility in my mind as it'll be less energy sapping for the great man.

Lionel Messi

But, it's hard to get anything player related onside given the questions and doubts around team selection. However, what Argentina have in spades is quality squad depth, so whatever team Scaloni picks I expect them to win and win handsomely.

We can back ARGENTINA WIN TO NIL AND ARGENTINA TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at odds-against and that will do for me. Jordan have conceded two or more goals in all of their five games in 2026, while Argentina have scored 2+ goals in all of their last eight, with seven of those eight seeing them win to nil.

So far at this tournament the reigning champions have conceded just 13 shots equating to 0.85 xGA, highlighting their defensive strength, and they should be able to keep Jordan at bay in matchday three.

Score prediction: Jordan 0-2 Argentina (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)

Odds correct at 16:30 BST (26/06/26)

Already advised

Croatia vs Ghana - Saturday 22:00

1pt the Draw at 12/5 (Betfred)

Panama vs England - Saturday 22:00

2pts England to win and Under 3.5 goals at 6/5 (General)

Bosnia vs Qatar - Wednesday 20:00

❌ 1pt Nikola Katic 1+ shot on target at 12/5 (William Hill)

❌ 1pt Kerim Alajbegovic 1+ assist at 7/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

Switzerland vs Canada - Wednesday 20:00

✅ 0.75pt Breel Embolo 1+ assist at 7/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Morocco vs Haiti - Wednesday 23:00

❌ 1.5pts Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 1+ shots created at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

Scotland vs Brazil - Wednesday 23:00

❌ 2pts Lewis Ferguson to win 2+ fouls at evens (Sky Bet)

Czechia vs Mexico - Thursday 02:00

❌ 0.5pt Guillermo Ochoa to be Player of the Match at 25/1 (bet365)

South Africa vs South Korea - Thursday 02:00

❌ 1pt Sphephelo Sitole to be carded at 5/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)

Curaçao vs Côte d'Ivoire - Thursday 21:00

✅ 2pts Curaçao 8+ total shots at 5/6 (bet365)

❌ 0.5pt Juninho Bacuna 1+ shot on target outside the box at 6/1 (bet365)

❌ 0.5pt Leandro Bacuna 1+ shot on target outside the box at 9/1 (bet365)

❌ 0.25pt Juninho and Leandro Bacuna both 1+ shot on target outside the box at 55/1 (bet365)

Japan vs Sweden - Friday 00:00

✋ 1.5pts Takehiro Tomiyasu to commit 2+ fouls at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

✋ 0.75pts Tomiyasu to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)

Tunisia vs Netherlands - Friday 00:00

❌ 2pts Cody Gakpo to score anytime at evens (Sky Bet)

❌ 0.5pt Gakpo to score 2+ goals at 9/2 (bet365)

Paraguay vs Australia - Friday 03:00

✅ 1.5pts Under 2.5 cards at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

❌ 0.5pt No cards at 13.5/1 (Betfair)

Türkiye vs USA - Friday 03:00

✅ 0.75pts Sebastian Berhalter 1+ shot on target outside the box at 9/2 (bet365)

✅ 0.25pts Sebastian Berhalter to score from outside the box at 16/1 (bet365)

Norway vs France - Friday 20:00

❌ 1pt Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland both to score anytime at 17/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

❌ 0.25pt Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland both to score 2+ goals at 50/1 (William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes)

Senegal vs Iraq - Friday 20:00

✅ 2pts Ismaïla Sarr to score anytime at 13/10 (William Hill, BetVictor)

Uruguay vs Spain - Saturday 01:00

❌ 0.5pt Uruguay to win draw no bet at 19/5 (Paddy Power)

✅ 0.5pt A Red card in the match at 11/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

New Zealand vs Belgium - Saturday 04:00

❌ 1pt Tim Payne to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)

Croatia vs Ghana - Saturday 22:00

❌ 1pt the Draw at 12/5 (Betfred)

Panama vs England - Saturday 22:00

✅ 2pts England to win and Under 3.5 goals at 6/5 (General)

Colombia vs Portugal - Sunday 00:30

❌ 1pt Luis Diaz to commit 2+ fouls at 9/4 (bet365)

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan - Sunday 00:30

❌ 1pt DR Congo to win and Under 3.5 goals at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

Jordan vs Argentina - Sunday 03:00

❌ 2pts Argentina win to nil and Argentina to score 2+ goals at 23/20 (Betway)

More World Cup content from Sporting Life

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