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Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith

World Matchplay darts 2024: Day eight semi-final predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Sat July 20, 2024 · 8M ago

The 2024 Betfred World Matchplay semi-finals take place at the Winter Gardens tonight so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

Darts betting tips: World Matchplay day seven

1pt Luke Humphries to win and hit 10+ 180s at 11/8 (Paddy Power)

1pt over 19 180s in MVG v Smith at 5/4 (Boylesports, Sky Bet)

SL Double: 1pt Humphries (-5.5) and Smith both to win at 3/1 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Evening Session (2000 BST)

TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: Semi-Finals, best of 33 legs

Luke Humphries v James Wade

Three-Dart Average (2024): 99.41 - 93.75
180s per leg (2024): 0.34 - 0.20
Checkout % (2024): 42.9% - 40.77%

Anyone who read my preview of Ross Smith v James Wade probably isn't reading this after I confidently opened it with: "There's three certainties in life. Death, taxes and Ross Smith hitting more 180s than James Wade tonight."

The Machine was 16/1 to hit most maximums and that felt ridiculously skinny given all the stats and logic we knew about both players. Yet darts can always be an excruciatingly painful sport to bet on. And so it proved, with each and every one of Wade's 13 maximums feeling like a dagger to the heart.

In my defence, I don't think anyone saw such a high scoring performance like that coming from Wade, especially given his seasonal form. As well as averaging over 100, he hit three 100+ checkouts and pinned over 42% of his doubles. Quite simply, over such a long format, that's as good as we've seen him for a long time.

The 2007 champion did admit to feeling tired and mentally fatigued afterwards and without falling into the trap of underestimating him again - I just can't see how he lives with Luke Humphries.

Cool Hand has averaged over 100 in all of his games so far and if he were to do that tonight and in the final, he'd match a feat only previously achieved by Phil Taylor.

Humphries is on another level to everyone else and even when he finds himself in a tricky spot, he's able to find the next gear and power through - just like he did against Stephen Bunting and Dimitri Van den Bergh.

The odds are stacked against Wade once again, with Humphries only even-money at -6.5 legs on the handicap! The bookies expect a procession and deep down, so do the pundits and most fans.

The world champion is odds-against to win and hit 10+ maximums which I feel is decent when you think he hit 12 in 26 legs during the quarter-finals while he's hit 22 so far during the tournament at 0.37 per leg - that's higher than his prolific seasonal rate of 0.34. We'll probably need at least 26 legs and obviously the closer Wade makes it, the better.

Verdict: 17-9

CLICK HERE to bet on Humphries v Wade with Sky Bet

WATCH: RANKING THE MAJOR WINNERS AT THEIR PEAK

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Michael van Gerwen v Michael Smith

Three-Dart Average (2024): 97.03 - 95.19
180s per leg (2024): 0.28 - 0.30
Checkout % (2024): 40.21% - 38.04%

Michael van Gerwen finally laid last year's UK Open final demons to rest against Andrew Gilding but it certainly wasn't a performance that would have struck fear into Michael Smith.

MVG may have been feeling a sense of Déjà vu when trailing 8-7 but in this longer format, the plucky Goldfinger eventually ran out of steam and only managed to win two of the next nine legs.

Despite averaging a respectable 97 average helped by his 11 maximums, MVG alarmingly missed 38 of his 54 attempts at doubles so he can't afford a repeat of that kind of finishing tonight.

If he does, then he'll go the same way as Rob Cross, who gifted Smith a place in the semi-finals by missing 27 of his 34!

Bully Boy probably couldn't believe his luck to beat one of the best players in the world right now 16-7 with an average of 96 but he won't be complaining and will be feeling a hell of a lot fresher than he'd have expected.

MVG isn't exactly known for being a prolific 180 hitter but he has fired in 24 across his three matches so far at 0.39 per leg which is far higher than his seasonal standard of 0.28 while Smith has managed 16 at 0.28 which is lower than his seasonal 0.30.

Nevertheless, it would be risky given both of their usual reputations to back the Dutchman hitting more tonight so if we see a close game then I'd more more inclined to go with at least 20 maximums in the match.

Verdict: 15-17