World Grand Prix: The game plans and perils of double start darts from Paul Nicholson

First-round fears

Every player is aware just how much the first round is a slippery slope due to it being best-of-three sets but from a fans perspective, that’s one of its charms and why the World Grand Prix is my favourite event after the World Championship.

With so many big names on the chopping block match after match, some people ask why the first round isn’t a longer format – but I think it’s more exciting like this.

I never had a problem with playing best of three but I know a lot who do because it punishes you dearly for a slow start – especially in a format that only appears once on the calendar.

You therefore have to look at players who have a good track record in this event and those who have experience of hitting the ground running from the very first match.

Debutants are hard to predict because we don’t know how they’ll find the format. The only time a player making their debut reached the final – apart from the inaugural edition - was Dirk van Duijvenbode so it’s obviously very hard to do.

Being a great finisher makes you a great starter?

Don’t assume that players with great checkout percentage stats this season are guaranteed to be better at hitting starting doubles.

Obviously it helps being confident on the outer ring but it is psychologically a different challenge. Pinning the double at the end of a leg tends to be when you get the most anxiety on a shot in a normal game of darts but starting a leg with one is a very different feeling.

It’s about rhythm, comfort and knowing what your strategy is.

Dave Chisnall is a very good starter and so is James Wade – even though his recent record in the event isn’t too great. But Rob Cross is a great example of someone who is a very good finisher who continually struggles with the double-start format.

Double troubles?

There are some players who can’t wait for the World Grand Prix because double-start is in their wheelhouse – whether that’s because of where they grew up or had it forced upon them when they played local darts.

I loved this event and actually wanted more double-start tournaments during the season as I grew up in the North-East where this format is played a lot locally.

However, for much of the UK and abroad, double-start is very unnatural for players because they just don’t play it, so when this comes around, many of them get found out.

Gerwyn Price came out and said he didn’t like double-start darts and then goes on and wins the tournament back in 2020 and finished runner-up two years ago – so that shows what he’s made of and how he evolved.

Game plans

The likes of Michael van Gerwen and James Wade have more experience of this event and the format so when it comes around, they always seem strong and unruffled.

They have that plan and know exactly what they’re going to do before they get up on stage.

Other players who don’t have a plan end up getting confused. Terry Jenkins once got up on stage, forgot it was double-start and went straight for treble 20!

I remember Mark Webster telling me how he used to prepare for this event. A month before it began he would spend hours on double top. Just double top.

Mervyn King would always go for double 16 and then straight up to treble 20, whereas I used to go double 16 and then to treble 19 because of the transition not being too far. My next visit I’d go up to treble 20s.

Players like us would therefore completely ignore the prospect of ever going for a nine-darter because the only way you can do that is starting on double top or the bull.

Dirk van Duijvenbode made his debut in 2020 but he had a plan that helped him go all the way to the final. He went for double 18s or double 16s – it was irregular, but it was a plan and it worked. If you don’t have one, you’ll be scrambled and panic.

The plan isn’t just your favourite double. What if your first dart blocks it? You need a second favourite double you are ready to go for without hesitation. Don’t look past two options because otherwise you’ll get confused. That’s what the debutants need to realise before they get up there.

It’s a great format and a real leveller, which is why I love watching it so much.

Paul's World Grand Prix: 2023 predictions

Quarter one

• (1) Michael Smith v Callan Rydz
• Dirk van Duijvenbode v Brendan Dolan
• (8) Rob Cross v Andrew Gilding
• Jose de Sousa v Gary Anderson

There's very little pressure on Michael Smith as the number one seed because there are other people playing a lot better than him at the moment - or indeed over the season as a whole - and getting more attention. He's won titles and it's certainly not been a bad season, but I think a lot of fans would have expected him to kick on to an even greater level since landing the world championship.

As long as Callan Rydz is throwing three darts, Smith does have a tricky opener because his opponent is from the north-east where double start is played more prevalently locally than anywhere else in the country.

Dirk van Duijvenbode isn't playing as well as he was earlier this season and Rob Cross has an awful double-start record - so the biggest threat to Smith in this section has to be Gary Anderson.

He played phenomenally well over the last three Players Championship events, picking up a title on Friday, and really wants to lift this trophy for the first time.

Verdict: Gary Anderson to win the quarter

Quarter two

• (4) Gerwyn Price v Danny Noppert
• Krzysztof Ratajski v James Wade
• (5) Nathan Aspinall v Stephen Bunting
• Martin Schindler v Raymond van Barneveld

None of the eight seeded players wanted to get drawn with Danny Noppert. He's ranked nine in the world and comes into the World Grand Prix having won a tournament the other day.

He's awkward to play and very methodical so the pace of the game won't suit Gerwyn Price, who can't afford a slow start in this short format.

But Price has won it, been runner-up and reached the semi-finals in the last three years so he's certainly got the double-start pedigree to feel confident in this format.

I do think Price will edge a hard-fought encounter and will go on to win this section of the draw.

Krzysztof Ratajski has played well recently, James Wade does enjoy this event, while Stephen Bunting shouldn't be underestimated against World Matchplay champion Nathan Aspinall.

Martin Schindler v Raymond van Barneveld should be a good game but I can't see either going particularly far.

Verdict: Gerwyn Price to win the quarter

Quarter three

• (2) Michael van Gerwen v Josh Rock
• Dimitri Van den Bergh v Chris Dobey
• (7) Jonny Clayton v Ross Smith
• Joe Cullen v Mike De Decker

A lot of people will be hoping for another Michael van Gerwen v Josh Rock cracker like we did at the Grand Slam of Darts but we have no idea how good Josh is at double start.

He might warm to it really quickly or hate it like Rob Cross!

MVG has won this event six times, loves this format and is playing superbly at the moment. He put in a lot of hard yards over the years about getting the rhythm of a double-start player and that's why he's so successful. He scores a lot of 174s and 171s and they are the kind of shots that can save you in double start.

Dimitri Van den Bergh v Chris Dobey is a 50:50 game, Jonny Clayton is getting back to form after tough times in his personal life over the summer while Joe Cullen's clash with Mike De Decker is going under the radar.

I think MVG will come through this section with plenty of energy and form.

Verdict: MVG to win the quarter

Quarter four

• (3) Peter Wright v Gabriel Clemens
• Damon Heta v Ryan Searle
• (6) Luke Humphries v Daryl Gurney
• Dave Chisnall v Luke Woodhouse

Most of the attention in this quarter will be on Luke Humphries and Dave Chisnall, who have met in four finals this year and Chizzy has won the lot!

The most recent of those was on Thursday while the third of the previous three on the European Tour came last Sunday.

Chisnall is probably playing the best darts of his career right now, he's also a very strong double-start player and he's talking himself up as a potential major winner. He doesn't normally do that in public so this could be a newer, more confident Chizzy.

Peter Wright isn't getting any attention in this quarter despite being the third seed; firstly because he's only picked up one title this year and secondly because of how well the others are playing.

Luke Woodhouse has been raising more eyebrows recently and I also think Daryl Gurney has been playing superbly without any titles to his name and he could be the dark horse in this quarter.

He's got Humphries first up which is almost as tough as it gets - but in a way you have a better chance to beat the best players in the short format first round rather than later down the line.

Verdict: Chisnall to win the quarter

Who wins?

My predicted final is Gerwyn Price v Michael van Gerwen but I would not be shocked to see Gary Anderson v Dave Chisnall either!

It would be a popular final because neither of those players have lifted this title and Chizzy hasn't even won a major before.

The public would be split as to who they would want to win because Anderson does have a lot of fans who would dearly love him to get closer to picking up all the major honours in the PDC.

If he wins the World Grand Prix then it'll only be the Grand Slam of Darts that remains on his hit list. You can't back against him even if he plays down his chances in the media. Deep down he believes he can do this for his legacy.

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