Michael van Gerwen wins the World Grand Prix (Picture: Kieran Cleeves/PDC)

World Grand Prix darts: Day two predictions, odds, betting tips, accas, order of play & TV times

By Carl Fletcher

Darts

Tue October 03, 2023 · 2y ago

The first round of the Boylesports World Grand Prix concludes in Leicester on Tuesday night so here's our match-by-match preview and best bets.

Defending champion Michael van Gerwen takes to the oche at the Morningside Arena while Luke Humphries and Jonny Clayton are also in action.

Here, we look ahead to all eight matches with seasonal statistics, predictions, best bets and an acca...

Darts betting tips: World Grand Prix day two

1pt Chisnall to win the match and hit the most 180’s at 5/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Clayton to win the match and Smith to hit the most 180’s at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Clemens to beat Wright at 5/4 (Bet Victor)

SL Acca: Cullen, Chisnall, MVG & Humphries all to win at 4/1 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Grand Prix: Tuesday October 3

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1800 GMT)
First-Round Format: Best of 3 sets. All sets are the best of five legs. There will be no tie-break in any set. All legs must begin and end with a double, meaning that a player must hit a double before he can begin scoring in each leg.

Joe Cullen (4/11) v Mike De Decker (2/1)

Overall H2H: 4-1 (TV: 1-0)
2023: 2-0 (TV: 1-0)
Seasonal Average
Cullen: 94.80
De Decker: 93.48
180s per leg in 2022
Cullen: 0.33
De Decker: 0.32
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
Cullen: 38.72%
De Decker: 38.29%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Cullen: 13.52%
De Decker: 9.94%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Cullen: 34.34%
De Decker: 24.76%

This game is a repeat of the first round clash at the World Matchplay in July, in which ‘The Rockstar’ ran out a 10-7 winner before enjoying a run to the Semi-Finals. He’ll be hoping for the same outcome here and will be confident heading into this as he leads their head to head battle 4-1, having won both encounters this season.

Cullen however has been hit and miss of late. He’s won just four of his last ten matches, including two first round exits in the three Players Championship events played last week. He has however mustered up both a Semi-Final and Quarter-Final run already since the Pro Tour darting action resumed the end of August.

De Decker has been a bit more consistent of late. He’s notched up four ton-plus averages in his last seven games and reached the Quarter-Final of the Hungarian Darts Trophy just over a week ago, losing a last leg decider to Scott Williams in a sub-par match.

When these two met in the aforementioned Matchplay tussle there’s no doubt Cullen was the player in the better form but it’s a much closer call now on current form. Cullen has the big stage experience and although De Decker is on the up I’m not sure we’ve seen his best game in front in the big TV events yet. As a result, I’m taking Cullen to edge this one but only just.

Scoreline prediction: 2-1

Dave Chisnall (4/11) v Luke Woodhouse (2/1)

Overall H2H: 4-2 (TV: 0-0)
2023: 2-0 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average
Chisnall: 96.41
Woodhouse: 92.86
180s per leg in 2022
Chisnall: 0.35
Woodhouse: 0.25
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
Chisnall: 37.37%
Woodhouse: 40.16%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Chisnall: 9.59%
Woodhouse: 12.90%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Chisnall: 24.56%
Woodhouse: 23.71%

Luke Woodhouse did what he needed to do at the recent Hungarian Darts Trophy to claim the final place in this field as others were just edged out. That Quarter-Final run included victories over Rob Cross and Peter Wright along the way.

It’s a clear sign of the progress being made by ‘Woody’ in recent seasons who also reached the final of Players Championship fourteen earlier in the year, losing 8-2 to Damon Heta. He played pretty well in last weeks Players Championship events too, losing in the Last 16 of the two most recent tournaments finding Gary Anderson and Stephen Bunting too good, albeit both those were in magnificent form during those three days.

‘Chizzy’ is in sublime form too. He won the Hungarian Darts Trophy the previous weekend defeating Luke Humphries 8-7 in a brilliant final. He then backed this up by winning the next Players Championship event he played in, once again defeating Luke Humphries in the final, albeit by a more comfortable 8-3 scoreline on this most recent occasion.

Chisnall is a two time finalist in this event finding only Phil Taylor and Michael Van Gerwen too good on those occasions. This could be his time but then again how many times have we said that?

He’s strong favourite to advance here and he leads their head to head 4-2. He’s the stronger scorer of the two and I don’t think he’ll slip up here. Luke can run him close however, he took the opening set against Gerwyn Price at the World Championships this year and he may to do the same here to take it to a final set. Ultimately however I think Chizzy will have just enough.

Scoreline prediction: 2-1

Damon Heta (4/11) v Ryan Searle (2/1)

Overall H2H: 1-1 (TV: 0-0)
2023: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average
Heta: 94.22
Searle: 94.95
180s per leg in 2022
Heta: 0.27
Searle: 0.24
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
Heta: 38.24%
Searle: 34.51%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Heta: 12.17%
Searle: 11.14%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Heta: 24.60 %
Searle: 19.05%

Damon Heta banished his unwanted recent record in TV events at the World Matchplay by reaching the Quarter-Finals after a string of early exits. He backed this up somewhat in the New South Wales Masters on the World Series by reaching the final, defeating Gerwyn Price and Dimitri Van Den Bergh before losing to Rob Cross in the final.

His opponent Ryan Searle also enjoyed a good run in the Matchplay, losing in the Quarter Final stages to Jonny Clayton where he looked imperious in destroying Raymond Van Barneveld in the opening round with a 105.19 average. Since that he’s averaged ton plus in just one of his next twenty four matches and not made it past the Last 16 stage in any of the tournament he’s played since.

Heta is arguably in the better form of the two coming into this match having reached the Quarter-Final of the Hungarian Darts Trophy just over a week ago on the Euro Tour and backing this up with a Quarter-Final and Semi-Final run in the most recent set of Players Championship events just a few days ago.

Both these exited at the first round stage last year. The Aussie lost 2-1 to Joe Cullen and perhaps somewhat surprisingly Searle lost by the same scoreline to the Latvian Madars Razma.

This is another close game to call and the 1-1 head to head suggests that too but based on recent form and last years performance in this event I favour ‘The Heat’ to edge it, especially when he is playing like he is, averaging higher than his opponent in ten of his last eleven games.

Scoreline prediction: 2-1

Dimitri Van den Bergh (4/11) v Chris Dobey (2/1)

Overall H2H: 7-6 (TV: 1-2)
2023: 1-2 (TV: 1-1)
Seasonal Average
VDB: 93.71
Dobey: 95.93
180s per leg in 2022
VDB: 0.28
Dobey: 0.32
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
VDB: 37.24%
Dobey: 37.87%
100+ checkouts per leg won
VDB: 8.60%
Dobey: 13.67%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
VDB: 20.15%
Dobey: 22.22%

Dimitri Van Den Bergh is in no sort of form of late and for a top drawer player he’s won just seven of his last twenty matches. A solitary Last 16 run at Players Championship 22 is the best to show over this period stretching back to mid-August and you’d have to have serious question mark about his chances this week.

To underline his drop off him in form further in these twenty matches he’s averaged less than 90 in eleven of them and averaged less than his opponent in twelve games.

Dobey on the other hand has been a picture of consistency in his last twenty games, winning fifteen of them and his last three defeats have come at the hands of Danny Noppert, a resurgent Gary Anderson and a majestic Michael Van Gerwen performance with the latter two hitting him with 106 and 111 averages respectively.

Dimitri has won seven of their previous thirteen matches but it is ‘Hollywood’ Chris Dobey who has won the last two meetings between the pair. Both these players reached the Quarter-Final last year. Dimitri was eliminated by Peter Wright and Dobey was put to the sword by a dazzling MVG display, who later went on to claim the title.

This match could become a nightmare for ‘The Dreammaker’ and Dobey who earlier in the year claimed the Masters title to earn a spot in the Premier League can take full advantage once again to win a third consecutive match against the Belgian.

Scoreline prediction: 1-2

Peter Wright (4/11) v Gabriel Clemens (2/1)

Overall H2H: 2-5 (TV: 2-2)
2023: 0-1 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average
Wright: 92.99
Clemens: 93.40
180s per leg in 2022
Wright: 0.24
Clemens: 0.26
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
Wright: 37.87%
Clemens: 31.73%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Wright: 12.45%
Clemens: 8.26%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Wright: 10.34%
Clemens: 18.28%

In the previous game preview I mentioned how Dimitri has been out of form of late and similar remarks apply to Peter ‘Snakebite’ Wright who has been in the doldrums for a large part of this season since a promising start to the year in the Masters and Nordic Darts Masters.

There have been some small signs of improvement of late as he’s started playing some of the floor tournaments. He reached the Semi-Final of Players Championship 21 in August and despite losing in the Last 32 to Dimitri Van Den Bergh in his most recent tournament, Players Championship 22, he did manage to register back to back 100+ match averages for the first time since January. Quite the drop off for one of the superstars of the game.

Clemens enjoys a superior head to head between the two winning five of their previous seven encounters including a notable victory over Wright in the 2021 PDC World Championship when ‘Snakebite’ was defending champion.

‘The German Giant’ was imperious at times during last years World Championship, reaching the Semi-Final and finding the eventual champion Michael Smith too much in the Semi-Final but the match was arguably closer than the 6-2 score line suggests.

I expected much more from him this year on the back of this and after reaching the final of Players Championship Three I thought that theory would come true. Since then however you’d have to say despite an odd decent run here and there that’s not been the case.

He also comes into this in relativity poor form himself with just two victories in his last eight games with four first round exits and two second round exits in his last six tournaments.

So who wins the battle of two out of forms players? I’ve not liked what I’ve seen from Wright for a long time and Clemens has the higher seasonal average of the two. I think he’ll cement his superiority over Wright in recent times.

Scoreline prediction: 1-2

Michael van Gerwen (4/11) v Josh Rock (2/1)

Overall H2H: 3-4 (TV: 0-2)
2023: 3-2 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average
MVG: 98.00
Rock: 96.44
180s per leg in 2022
MVG: 0.29
Rock: 0.29
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
MVG: 39.78%
Rock: 38.95%
100+ checkouts per leg won
MVG: 11.64%
Rock: 12.50%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
MVG: 22.05%
Rock: 22.02%

By some way for me, MVG vs Josh Rock is the pick of the first round ties. Defending champion and six times winner of this title MVG starts favourite but he couldn’t have picked himself a more difficult opponent, especially in such a short format that lends itself to upsets.

Van Gerwen was the victor in the most recent televised tournament, the World Series of Darts Finals and has been relatively consistent since without being in the winners enclosure since and comes into this on the back of three successive ton plus averages: 112, 111 and near enough 102.

He also had a difficult draw at this stage last season when he faced old foe Gary Anderson, who he defeated 2-0 before going on to win the title by defeating Stephen Bunting, Chris Dobey, Peter Wright and Nathan Aspinall.

These two first met in a spellbinding match at last years Grand Slam of Darts and if it gets anywhere near that standard, it should be another belter here. These two have also met a further five times in 2023. It’s 3-2 in Van Gerwen’s favour but we’ve also witnessed a whitewash, 7-0 victory for Rock and he won their most recent face off, back in May at Players Championship 12.

It’s fair to say that Rock despite being one of the hottest properties in the game and averaging 96.44 for the season hasn’t quite lived up to the standards he set last year, he was that good and that explosive at times in 2022.

He does however come into this in relatively poor form. He’s lost five of his last six matches, his sole victory came against Adam Smith-Neale and his defeats were at the hands of Krzysztof Ratajski, Mike De Decker, Boris Krcmar, Martin Lukeman and Cam Crabtree. This is the worry.

I’m taking Van Gerwen to once again put the talented young Northern Irishman in his place on his first step to defending his crown.

Scoreline prediction: 2-0

Jonny Clayton (4/11) v Ross Smith (2/1)

Overall H2H: 5-2 (TV: 2-0)
2023: 1-0 (TV: 1-0)
Seasonal Average
Clayton: 96.38
Smith: 95.46
180s per leg in 2022
Clayton: 0.21
Smith: 0.36
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
Clayton: 42.64%
Smith: 38.26%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Clayton: 15.94%
Smith: 8.74%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Clayton: 17.61%
Smith: 26.13%

Jonny Clayton versus Ross Smith is another standout tie from round one and it’s a game that sees the ace 140 hitter in ‘The Ferret’ Jonny Clayton take on one of the biggest maximum hitters in the game.

Clayton claimed the Grand Prix crown in 2021 winning the title by virtue of one of the best double hitting performances we’ve ever witnessed in this event and that goes for both starting the leg and finishing the leg.

In defence of his title last year he faced Dirk Van Duijvenbode, probably the only PDC Tour Card Holder you could suggest is a bigger 180 hitter than tonight’s opponent and on that occasion he came out victorious by two sets to one. Smith also overcame a tricky opener last year, when he triumphed 2-1 over the 2023 UK Open Champion, Andrew Gilding. Both players ultimately lost 3-2 in the second round.

The pair met earlier in this year at the UK Open and it was a 10-9 victory for Clayton in an excellent games where Smith amassed nine 180’s compared to just the one of Clayton. On that occasion it was the doubles that were crucial. The Welshman hit 50% of his (10/20) whereas Smith just 25% of his (9/36).

I fancy that could be the telling point here too. Over the course of 2023 on stage Clayton is superior in this aspect of the game. He’s hit 42.6% of his doubles compared to the 38.3% of his opponent.

Clayton after a drop in form following the death of his father seems to have rediscovered his winning formulae of late reaching the Quarters and Semi’s of his last two events whereas Smith has won just five of his last twelve games. Take the previous champ to reign here and to re-affirm is head to head record which stands at 5-2 in his favour.

Scoreline prediction: 2-1

Luke Humphries (4/11) v Daryl Gurney (2/1)

Overall H2H: 4-5 (TV: 0-2)
2023: 2-1 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average
Humphries: 98.17
Gurney: 94.84
180s per leg in 2022
Humphries: 0.34
Gurney: 0.24
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
Humphries: 41.21%
Gurney: 37.57%
100+ checkouts per leg won
Humphries: 10.43%
Gurney: 11.25%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s, highest checkout)
Humphries: 25.95%
Gurney: 23.08%

The first round action concludes with one of the players of 2023 Luke Humphries facing off against 2017 World Grand Prix champion Daryl Gurney.

Humphries based on prize money won in 2023 has earned the sixth highest amount of all Tour Card Holders, which is remarkable considering he was overlooked perhaps somewhat surprisingly for this years Premier League.

Despite losing in the first round of the most recent Players Championship event to James Wilson, who averaged 102.79, Humphries comes into this bang in form. He’d lost in the final of his previous two tournaments to Dave Chisnall and has averaged 100+ in ten of his last thirteen matches. He also boasts a match win percentage of 74% which is the best of all Tour Card Holders.

Gurney himself is enjoying a fruitful campaign and has a 67% win percentage this season, which underlines how consistent he’s been, putting numerous good runs together and coming through qualifying for 11 of the 13 Euro Tours this year, the best of all players who’ve regularly had to attempt that route onto those particular events.

The head to head actually slightly favours Gurney 6-4 but over the past two seasons Humphries leads 4-2 who’s been on the more upward trajectory of the two. I’m taking ‘Cool Hand Luke’ to continue his impressive form.

Scoreline prediction: 2-0