Chris Dobey and Michael van Gerwen (Picture: PDC)

Premier League Darts: Night 10 predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and Sky Sports TV time

By Carl Fletcher

Darts

Thu April 06, 2023 · 3y ago

The Cazoo Premier League Darts season continues in Birmingham on Thursday, so check out Carl Fletcher's match-by-match guide to the action.

Darts betting tips: Premier League night 10

1pt Chris Dobey to have the higher checkout vs Michael Van Gerwen at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

2pts Gerwyn Price to win -2.5 legs at 6/5 (Sky Bet)

2pts Michael Smith to win and hit the most 180’s at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

SL Acca: Chris Dobey (+2.5), Jonny Clayton, Gerwyn Price & Michael Smith all to win

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Thursday April 6: Night 10

TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
Format: Quarter-Finals, best of 11 legs
Venue: Utilita Arena, Birmingham

Michael van Gerwen (2/7) v Chris Dobey (5/2)

Head to Head: 13-3 (TV: 4-3)
2023 Head to Head: 1-2 (TV: 1-2)
PL Average: 97.74 - 96.00
PL 180s per leg: 0.27 - 0.28
PL checkout percentage: 38.95% - 41.55%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 9.0% - 14.1%

Table topper Michael Van Gerwen suffered only his second Quarter-Final defeat last week as he lost 6-5 to Jonny Clayton and you have go back to week six for his last night success when he completed his third successive nightly win.

His ten match winning streak in this event was actually ended by tonights opponent Chris Dobey virtue of a 6-0 hammering, a first ever whitewash suffered by ‘The Green Machine’ in this event, with ‘Hollywood’ having now won two of their three meetings in this years Premier League.

It is quite the turnaround in fortunes for Dobey who after losing his first eleven encounters against MVG, has now won three of three of the last five matches between the two and despite a favourable 13-3 head to head overall for Van Gerwen, the record on TV is much closer at just 4-3.

Dobey himself suffered a Quarter-Final defeat last week at the hands of Nathan Aspinall, 6-4 and currently resides in sixth place. Despite his placing he remains in the hunt for a place in the play-offs but with weeks running out he needs to start picking up points. He opens up against MVG here and to follow that up next week he starts against the in-form Gerwyn Price. Two blank weeks and he could be out of contention.

During this years event Dobey has been more efficient on the big checkouts, his conversion of 100+ checkout opportunities is 12.9% and he’s won 14.1% of his legs through this method. Van Gerwen stats in comparison are 9.2% and 9.0% respectively. Also in each of the three meetings so far in this event Dobey has had the higher checkout. With the need to get something out the game I think a ‘Hollywood’ finish from him could be on the cards and he could edge that market, if not the match.

CLICK HERE to back Dobey to have the highest checkout with Sky Bet

Verdict: 6-5

Nathan Aspinall (19/20) v Jonny Clayton (4/5)

Head to Head: 4-5, 1 draw (TV: 1-2, 1 draw)
2023 Head to Head: 0-1 (TV: 0-1)
PL Average: 95.44 - 94.31
PL 180s per leg: 0.33 - 0.20
PL checkout percentage: 34.57% - 40.88%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 12.2% - 6.2%

This is a very significant match between the players currently sitting in fourth and fifth in the table, a real pivotal match in the quest for a Play-Off spot. Victory for Aspinall would certainly cement is spot in the Top 4, the only player in this years field to have occupied those positions throughout. That is courtesy of him losing just two opening matches in the opening nine weeks, a feat only matched by table topper Michael Van Gerwen.

One of those two occasions was in week four in Dublin, when he lost to tonight’s opponent Jonny Clayton 6-4, which considering the players meet regularly is their solitary encounter in 2023.

‘The Ferret’ was last weeks winner in Berlin, defeating Michael Van Gerwen 6-5, Gerwyn Price 6-4 and Michael Smith 6-4 in what was quite a performance to win the title given those fixtures. He also played well the weekend, reaching the Quarter-Final of the International Darts Open, where he lost 6-3 to home favourite Martin Schindler, who registered a 102.07 average against him. In that event Clayton himself produced a 104.28 average in defeating Dave Chisnall 6-2 to underline he’s beginning to find his form at just the right time.

It was also Martin Schindler who defeated ‘The Asp’ last weekend, similarly by a 6-3 score line but Aspinall led 3-1 in that game before Schindler reeled off five successive legs to claim the victory.

Clayton has won the last three meetings between the pair and excluding a couple of Home Tour victories during lockdown in June 2020 you have to go back to February 2020 in The Masters for the last time Aspinall beat Clayton.

I think that superiority will hold sway here too. I envisage another tight game but I think ‘The Ferret’ can prevail to close the gap on ‘The Asp’. Clayton the 2021 Premier League Champion and the 2022 table topper will then be convinced he can go on to finish in the Top 4.

Verdict: 5-6

Dimitri Van den Bergh (2/1) v Gerwyn Price (4/11)

Head to Head: 5-12, (TV: 3-7)
2023 Head to Head: 0-3 (TV: 0-3)
PL Average: 95.87 - 96.12
PL 180s per leg: 0.26 - 0.29
PL checkout percentage: 38.65% - 39.83%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 9.5% - 7.3%

Gerwyn Price comes into this match in red hot form. He’s won two of the last three Premier League nights, losing in the Semi-Final to last weeks champion and compatriot Jonny Clayton. He’s won the last two Euro Tours defeating Mike De Decker, Krzysztof Ratajski, Danny Noppert, Ross Smith, Rob Cross, Michael Smith and both Dirk Van Duijvenbode and Michael Van Gerwen twice apiece. He’s not had it easy at all.

A lot of that is due to his standard just being better than everyone else. He’s registered 100+ in ten of his last 13 matches. His two defeats in his last twenty-one matches have been against Gary Anderson and Jonny Clayton and they both had to average in excess of 100 to defeat him. He currently comfortably sits second in the table and appears to be well on his way to Play-Offs night with an 8 point cushion to the fifth placed player.

Van Den Bergh now however occupies seventh place on 9 points. It’s his lowest placing of the event this year. He quickly needs to find an upturn in form. He’s reached just one final in the first nine weeks and comes into this on the back of two Quarter-Final defeats against Nathan Aspinall and Michael Smith.

Price is arguably the one player you want to avoid at present and his record against ‘The Iceman’ isn’t good. He’s lost both Premier League matches against him this year and is on a run of four successive defeats to him. There has been some big wins in Dimi’s favour in the past, including a 16-9 victory in last years World Matchplay but Price appears to be a class apart from anyone at the moment as his 114.96 average in the final on Night Eight against Michael Van Gerwen demonstrates.

Both victories for Price against Dimi in this years event have been by a 6-4 score line but I expect his dominance to be much greater tonight. He’s playing so much better than his Premier league stats suggest and Van Den Bergh comes into this on the back of a 6-1 hammering and just an 82.59 average versus Niko Springer at the weekend.

CLICK HERE to back Price (-2.5 legs) with Sky Bet

Verdict: 3-6

Peter Wright (13/8) v Michael Smith (4/9)

Head to Head: 19-15, 2 draws (TV: 17-6, 2 draws)
2023 Head to Head: 1-1 (TV: 1-1)
PL Average: 93.65 - 97.32
PL 180s per leg: 0.20 - 0.34
PL checkout percentage: 37.50% - 37.50%
Legs won with 100+ checkout: 19.4% - 13.6%

Peter Wright’s woeful Premier League campaign showed no signs of abating last week as he suffered an eighth first round exit in nine events. His solitary win coming in Week 6 against somewhat surprisingly, Gerwyn Price 6-5.

It looks bleak for ‘Snakebite’ and you can’t see him finishing anything other than bottom. He did pick up a couple of victories at the weekend against Jose Justicia and Alan Soutar but was made to work hard for those before being absolutely demolished 6-0 by Michael Van Gerwen in the Quarter-Finals. In fact those two victories were only the fourth time this season that Wright has managed to string two or more successive victories together.

One of those occasions was of course when he won the Nordic Darts Masters in January, no doubt the highlight of his 2023 campaign so far. An event where he became the first player to defeat Michael Smith as World Champion. Since that tournament, he’s played 26 matches, winning just 10 and it’s 20 matches ago since he notched up a 100+ average.

Smith on the other hand looked good last week. He hit a whopping fifteen maximum on night nine, ultimately losing the final to a rampant Jonny Clayton 6-4.

He didn’t quite follow it up the weekend, losing in the last 32 to the very capable Mike De Decker. No shame in that, although the score line of 6-1 was a surprise.

Smith has already reached three finals in this years running of the event, winning one and losing two and currently occupies third spot behind Michael Van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price. He’ll see this as an opportunity to get more points in the bank as it could all become tricky for ‘Bully Boy’ if he doesn’t with a match against the chasing Jonny Clayton up first next week.

Since winning night three and topping the table at that point, Smith has remained in the Top 4, he’s the much better form of the two and after a recent illness is starting to look back to somewhere near the standard we’ve come to expect from him. He defeated Wright 6-5 on Night Four, which was the reversal of these fixtures and I expect him to come out on top here too. I suspect it could be a bit more routine for ‘Bully Boy’ especially if he finds that red bit like he can.

CLICK HERE to back Smith to win and to hit the most 180s with Sky Bet

Verdict: 6-3

Premier League Darts 2023: Averages, 180s and checkout statistics

After week nine

TOURNAMENT AVERAGE

Michael van Gerwen: 97.74
Michael Smith: 97.32
Gerwyn Price: 96.12
Chris Dobey: 96.00
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 95.87
Nathan Aspinall: 95.44
Jonny Clayton: 94.31
Peter Wright: 93.65

MOST 180s & 180s PER LEG

Michael Smith: 55 (0.34)
Michael van Gerwen: 52 (0.27)
Nathan Aspinall: 52 (0.33)
Gerwyn Price: 50 (0.29)
Chris Dobey: 37 (0.28)
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 34 (0.26)
Jonny Clayton: 31 (0.22)
Peter Wright: 19 (0.20)

DOUBLES AND CHECKOUT PERCENTAGE

Chris Dobey: 64/154 (41.55%)
Jonny Clayton: 65/159 (40.88%)
Gerwyn Price: 96/241 (39.83%)
Michael van Gerwen: 111/286 (38.95%)
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 63/163 (38.65%)
Michael Smith: 81/216 (37.50%)
Peter Wright: 36/96 (37.50%)
Nathan Aspinall: 74/214 (34.57%)

100+ CHECKOUTS, HIGHEST CHECKOUTS & % LEGS WON WITH 100+ CHECKOUT

Michael Smith: 11 (13.6% legs won with 100+ checkout)
100+ Checkouts: 148, 140, 137, 130, 122x2, 121x2, 115, 111, 110
Michael van Gerwen: 10 (9.0%)
100+ Checkouts: 170, 150, 142, 114, 112x2, 106, 106, 105, 104
Chris Dobey: 9 (14.1%)
100+ Checkouts: 170, 160, 148, 137, 121, 114, 112, 103, 100
Nathan Aspinall: 9 (12.2%)
100+ Checkouts: 143, 140, 136, 130, 116, 112, 110, 100x2
Peter Wright: 7 (19.4%)
100+ Checkouts: 156, 133, 130, 122, 121x2, 120
Gerwyn Price: 7 (7.3%)
100+ Checkouts: 156, 138, 116, 110, 106, 100x2
Dimitri Van den Bergh: 6 (9.5%)
100+ Checkouts: 140, 127x2, 126, 121x2
Jonny Clayton: 4 (6.2%)
100+ Checkouts: 120x2, 116x2