Timeform analysis and rating following Thundering On's Betfred Oaks win

We’re in a high-class era of middle-distance horses in Europe, and Thundering On has put herself on the fringes of the top echelon of them with her really impressive success in the Betfred Oaks.

It’s possible to pick holes in the form, the only horse with previous classic form Venetian Lace clearly didn’t stay stepping up from the 1000 Guineas and the favourite Amelia Earhart was underwhelming, but Thundering On and Legacy Link had both improved in stepping up to a mile-and-a-quarter when winning their respective trials and, with stamina elements in both of their pedigrees, it’s reasonable to think both improved significantly further in coming clear of the rest in a well-run Oaks, the winner earning a provisional Timeform rating of 124.

There are those famous moments in big races that are at least as striking as the result itself – think the way Frankel cruised up to St Nicholas Abbey and Farhh in the Juddmonte International or Sariska cantering into the Irish Oaks before Jamie Spencer gestured to Fran Berry on the runner-up – and there was not just one but two striking moments in this.

First when Legacy Link and Thundering On began to cut through the field three furlongs out and then when the winner loomed up to the runner-up over a furlong out while still on the bridle. It was clearly the plan to hold onto her for as long as possible, stamina for a stiff mile-and-a-half unknown, but she answered in the affirmative, shooting past and extending clear all the way to the line. It’s not stretching things to say she’d be a threat to any of the top middle-distance horses in Europe with her age and sex allowances, and still just five runs into her career, too.

This may have been just the second time in the last 13 years that the Oaks winner wasn’t trained at either Ballydoyle or Clarehaven, but there was still major familiarity about the result with Frankel’s DNA all over it, siring the winner for the third time in four years, while Legacy Link is by Dubawi (the sire who interrupted Frankel’s dominance of the Oaks with Ezeliya in 2024) and out of a sister to Frankel.

Some 45 minutes before the Oaks, Sallaal had created a wow moment of his own when shooting clear of a deep field of mile-and-a-quarter handicappers, many of whom are still firmly on the up.

To win any handicap at a big meeting by more than six lengths takes a serious amount of doing, but to do so from an official mark of 107 puts him in rarefied air. There are only five horses who have earned a Timeform rating higher than his provisional one of 124 in a handicap, headed of course by Trueshan in defying a mark of 120 in the Northumberland Plate. Sallaal is surely bound for pattern company sharpish.

It should be said that the efforts that have gone into reinvigorating this meeting have been very positive, the tweaking of the running order across the two days has struck a good balance and some big fields on Friday bodes very well, but the ground (good to soft across the board on times) – and the accompanied dash to the stand rail in some of the races – is slightly unsatisfactory.

Of course, nothing can be done about the amount of rainfall that falls on the course, but the amount of watering last week – 25mm in total – with a very unsettled spell on the horizon raises some eyebrows. The apparent desire to produce ground as “safe” as possible is a dangerous precedent at meetings that host potentially breed-shaping races.

Betfred Derby previews and tips

• Betfred Derby: What the trainers say
• Timeform big-race preview and analysis
• Graham Cunningham's Epsom File
• Podcast Tips: Who will win the Derby?
• Horse-by-horse guide and Nic Doggett verdict
• Betfred Derby preview Podcast
• Weekend View from Andrew Asquith
• Stamina is key according to Simon Holt
• What do pedigrees say and who will stay best?
• Timeform's Derby greats down the years
• Frankel holds the key to Epsom glory
• Egypt the each-way play according to Alex Hammond
• The "most thrilling 90 minutes in horseracing"?
• Aidan O'Brien's unshakeable faith in Pierre Bonnard
• Final field of 14 and Derby draw details

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