Football betting tips: World Cup
1.5pts Japan to qualify at 12/5 (General)
0.5pt Japan to win in 90 minutes 17/4 (bet365)
There were possibly no teams with more question marks hanging over them than Brazil ahead of this World Cup.
How much of that could ever really be answered by matches against Haiti and Scotland is open to debate, but even in those 3-0 wins there remained plenty to be unsure of when it comes to Carlo Ancelotti’s side capability when meeting higher calibre opposition.
If the first half of their opening game against Morocco is anything to go by, then this looks a very awkward tie for the Selecao.
Brazil’s recent improvement has come through Ancelotti abandoning almost any notion of Samba football in favour of the kind of European pragmatism that got him the job in the first place. His side are happy to cede possession, sit in shape, wait for mistakes and explode in transition, funnelling attacks towards Vinicius Junior, now operating as a striker in an increasingly functional 4-4-2.
Scotland fell into the trap. JAPAN will not.
Hajime Moriyasu’s side arrived at the tournament as dark horses and have done enough so far to justify that billing. After fighting back twice in a cagey 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, they dismantled Tunisia 4-0 before a heavily rotated side had the better of a 1-1 draw with Sweden that suited both nations.
They have shown they can play in several different ways. Cautious and compact against the Dutch before opening up once behind, then pressing and overwhelming Tunisia through the kind of midfield energy they are renowned for.
Moriyasu’s side are perfectly comfortable without the ball and, unlike Scotland, are unlikely to make simple errors, become stretched or get drawn into the kind of transitional game this Brazil team wants to play.
Japan's midfield is built on a mobility and intensity that Brazil simply do not have. Their lack of midfield legs leaves them exposed to aggressive, high-energy opponents, something Morocco exploited in a dominant first half and in the closing stages of their 1-1 draw.
At 12/5, Japan look overpriced TO QUALIFY for the round of 16, with the 17/4 TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES also advised to smaller stakes.
These sides met in October, with Japan having just 37% of the ball, but still roaring back from a 2-0 half-time deficit to win 3-2.
Ultimately, this is a bad match-up for Brazil. Even if Ancelotti manages to find a solution, and continue the quest for a first World Cup triumph since 2002, we simply haven't seen enough yet to justify their 1/3 price to qualify.
The market seems to be totally underestimating this impressive Japan team. Let's hope Brazil do too.
Odds correct 16:25 BST (26/06/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
Group previews
- Group A: Mexico; South Africa; South Korea; Czechia
- Group B: Canada; Bosnia; Qatar; Switzerland
- Group C: Brazil; Morocco; Haiti; Scotland
- Group D: USA; Paraguay; Australia; Turkiye
- Group E: Germany; Curacao; Ivory Coast; Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands; Japan; Sweden; Tunisia
- Group G: Belgium; Egypt; Iran; New Zealand
- Group H: Spain; Cape Verde; Saudi Arabia; Uruguay
- Group I: France; Senegal; Iraq; Norway
- Group J: Argentina; Algeria; Austria; Jordan
- Group K: Portugal; DR Congo; Uzbekistan; Colombia
- Group L: England; Croatia; Ghana; Panama
Outright previews
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