World Matchplay statistics preview: Tips for each quarter of the draw based on stats model

Darts betting tips: World Matchplay quarter bets

1pt Gerwyn Price to win Quarter One at 7/4 (General)

1pt Krzysztof Ratajski to win Quarter Two at 11/2 (General)

0.5pt Damon Heta to win Quarter Four at 25/1 (Unibet)

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A skill often overlooked is the ability to put a number next to a player or outcome and while a player rating and or probability cannot be taken as gospel, it stands to reason that a good way to attempt to beat a compiler’s odds line is to act like one and create your own prices. Whether you believe in a maths-based approach or not, it’s a hard task to achieve long-term profits in fairly static markets such as darts deploying feel alone without a reference point, in this case a set of 100% probabilities.

As mentioned in previous articles, in many ways darts is a very good sport to model, primarily due the relatively few variables and outside factors at play, particularly compared to say, horse racing. For a start, it’s head-to-head, played indoors with a pre-determined winning score and the non-contact nature of it really should lend itself to a data approach when assessing the chance of one player against another.

With that in mind, I have looked at all four quarters in the upcoming World Matchplay, breaking down each of them into three rounds. Having priced up all possible permutations using a set of player ratings with a formula tweaked to match length, a probability for each player triumphing in their quarter is produced.

Quarter 1

The main disparity in this Quarter is Dirk van Duijvenbode, who is priced up at between 7/1-10/1 with the layers but is nearer 20/1 with me in a mini section containing Welsh superstars Gerwyn Price and Jonny Clayton. The aforementioned World Champion is the best player in the world according to my ratings and the 7/4 available is just about big enough to put him up as a bet in comparison to my 37.6% probability.

While not offered as a wager, the stand out 33/1 about Vincent van der Voort is a shade too big in a mini quarter in which all bar Van den Bergh has something to prove.

Quarter 2

The weakest and also the most open section, with James Wade the 7/2 jolly. The current well-being of Glenn Durrant also complicates matters, as while it is possible to pull a player rating down artificially, this approach lends itself to each competitor playing near to their peak and external factors such as Durrant’s well-publicised struggles are largely overlooked. As a result. Callan Rydz’s match price differs greatly with the unsurprisingly-cautious layers and Rydz’s quarter probability is probably slightly higher than 7.4%.

That said, I am still interested in Krzysztof Ratajski at 11/2. The Players Championship series hasn’t exactly been kind to the Pole, but over the past 18 months he has been the second-best player behind Wade in this section. The perennially-underrated Irishman Brendan Dolan is a stiff opening game and he would be a slight underdog were he to face Wade in Round 2, but Ratajski would be clear favourite against anyone in the bottom half of the quarter and should be 9/2 maximum according to my figures.

Quarter 3

In short, with big guns Peter Wright and Jose de Sousa pitched together and both around 9/4 with me, there is no value to be had in this quarter.

Quarter 4

Michael van Gerwen is no bigger than 11/8 and is 43.7% with me to triumph in the most one-sided Quarter. Gary Anderson looks too short at 5/1 and on balance, MVG’s first-round opponent Damon Heta might be worth a speculative play at 22/1+. He’s around 10/3 with me just to win that opening encounter, but should he catch the Dutchman cold, Heta’s task becomes a very realistic one and with a combined probability of 5.3%, the odds available are acceptable.

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