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Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith (Picture: Simon O’Connor/PDC)

World Matchplay 2023: Day two darts predictions, odds, betting tips, accas, order of play & TV times

By Carl Fletcher

07:30 · TUE July 18, 2023

The 30th staging of the World Matchplay continues with two sessions in Blackpool on Sunday. Here's our match-by-match preview and best bets.

We’ve got the current world champion, Michael Smith and the defending champion, Michael van Gerwen headlining the evening action but the afternoon action looks mouthwatering too.

It features one of the ties of the round in Damon Heta versus Josh Rock, plus a resurgent James Wade and the exciting Dirk van Duijvenbode.

Here, we look ahead to all eight matches with seasonal statistics, predictions, best bets and an acca…

Darts betting tips: World Matchplay day two

3pts van Duijvenbode to win and hit the most 180s at 8/11 (Sky Bet)

2pts Schindler to hit the most 180s v Noppert at 4/5 (Sky Bet)

1pt Humphries to win and De Sousa to hit the most 180s at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt van Duijvenbode to hit the most 180s and Heta to have the highest checkout in the afternoon session at 33/1 (Sky Bet)

SL Acca: Van Duijvenbode, Humphries, Van Gerwen (-3.5) & Smith (-3.5) all to win

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Matchplay: Sunday July 16

Venue: Winter Gardens, Blackpool
TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1300 & 1900 BST)
Format: Best of 19 legs. Each game must be won by two clear legs, with up to a maximum of five additional legs being played before the sixth additional leg is sudden-death

AFTERNOON SESSION

Danny Noppert (4/6) v Martin Schindler (11/10)

Overall H2H: 2-0 (TV: 0-0)
2023: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average:
Noppert: 94.34
Schindler: 94.40
180s per leg in 2023:
Noppert: 0.25
Schindler: 0.32
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
Noppert: 39.73
Schindler: 39.62
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
Noppert: 21.33
Schindler: 29.41

There’s been two previous meetings between the pair and it’s the Dutchman - who starts slight favourite - who’s won them both.

Both these players were eliminated by Gerwyn Price in 2022. Schindler fell victim to ‘The Iceman’ at this stage by a scoreline of 10-8, whereas Noppert enjoyed a run to the semi-finals, defeating Brendan Dolan, Daryl Gurney and Dirk Van Duijvenbode before succumbing 17-11 to the Welsh darting juggernaut.

The betting suggests this will be tight and based on prize money won alone this season you’d have to agree. Noppert ranks 15th best overall of all tour card holders and his German opponent 16th. To back this up even further the respective seasonal averages are 94.34 and 94.40, slightly in favour of Schindler.

Noppert has already been in the winners' enclosure in 2023, winning the second Players Championship event of the year with numerous other good runs too. Last weekend he featured in the Poland Darts Masters, losing to Michael Smith despite averaging nigh on six points higher and looking in control for much of it that 6-4 defeat.

He had some steady games at last weeks Pro Tour events too losing in the last 32 and last 16 across the two days but he does come into this on the back of a 6-0 whitewash defeat at the hands of Jonny Clayton and his third lowest average of the season.

Schindler also suffered last 32 and last 16 exits in these two events so comes into this with pretty much the same prep. ‘The Wall’ did enjoy a good run in this year's UK Open, being eliminated by eventual champion Andrew Gilding in the quarter-final after impressive victories over Simon Whitlock, Adrian Lewis and Jonny Clayton prior.

This promises to go deep and while there’s not much between them, the 180 stats tend to favour Schindler. During this campaign he’s been hitting them 0.32 per leg, whereas Noppert is 0.25 per leg. That would be the angle I’d be focusing on in this match, in a game that really could go either way.

For those who like a quickfire flutter, on stage in 2023 Schindler has hit T20 with his first dart in nine of the 22 matches he’s played, including three of his last four.

Scoreline prediction: 10-8

Dirk Van Duijvenbode (2/7) v Kim Huybrechts (5/2)

Overall H2H: 2-4 (TV: 0-0)
2023: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average:
Van Duijvenbode: 96.35
Huybrechts: 92.55
180s per leg in 2023:
Van Duijvenbode: 0.39
Huybrechts: 0.24
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
Van Duijvenbode: 40.77
Huybrechts: 40.00
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
Van Duijvenbode: 36.46
Huybrechts: 28.07

These two aren’t afraid to show their emotions on the big stage and there could be some fireworks if both get embroiled here.

Both players have won events this year. DVD has won three Players Championship events titles already from the first 16 events, leading the Players Championship Order of Merit as a result. He’s lost both finals he’s featured in on the Euro Tour however, heartbreakingly in last leg deciders to Gerwyn Price and Luke Humphries.

He did suffer a slight dip in standards after bizarrely injuring himself in his pumped up walk on versus Dylan Slevin on the Euro Tour in April, going 16 matches and two months without registering a ton-plus match average until doing so in his 6-2 victory over Andrew Gilding in the European Darts Matchplay.

He seems to have come out of this slumber completely now and at the most recent Players Championship event, he registered four consecutive 100+ averages before being eliminated by eventual runner-up Ryan Joyce in the last eight.

Huybrechts was successful at Players Championship Three, which was his first ranking title since 2015. He defeated ‘The German Giant’ Gabriel Clemens in the final but his route to that triumph included impressive victories over Nathan Aspinall, Josh Rock and Gerwyn Price to underline just how dangerous he can be on his day.

He’s not quite lived up to that standard since, in fact he comes into this on the back of five successive defeats with losses against Keegan Brown, Richie Burnett, Keane Barry, Alan Soutar and Jeffrey De Zwaan.

Now Dirk’s power scoring is back at its best you’d have to strongly favour ‘The Aubergenius’ who’s amassing 180s at 0.39 per leg this season across all events, the best of all Tour Card holders. This coupled with Kim’s atrocious record in this event means I can only see one outcome.

Scoreline prediction: 10-6

Damon Heta (6/5) v Josh Rock (8/13)

Overall H2H: 3-3 (TV: 0-0)
2023: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average:
Heta: 95.06
Rock 96.87
180s per leg in 2023:
Heta: 0.30
Rock: 0.29
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
Heta: 37.62
Rock: 38.71
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
Heta: 25.00
Rock: 21.69

Rewind 12 months and it was Damon Heta who started the tournament unseeded but was favourite to beat Joe Cullen. This time the boot is on the other foot and he comes into this match as the underdog against the young Northern Irish starlet, Josh Rock, despite being the seed. On that occasion the Aussie was destroyed 10-2 by ‘The Rockstar’ on a night to forget.

Since winning the World Cup last year a lot has been made of Heta’s form in front of the TV cameras and two early exits in The Masters and UK Open in 2023 won’t have helped with this.

He is however in excellent form. He comes into this as the winner of the most recent event on Tour, Players Championship 16, where he defeated James Wade and Joe Cullen along the way before triumphing 8-4 over Ryan Joyce in the final, averaging 103.55. This his second title of the year after winning Players Championship 14 too.

Over the past 30 matches Heta has played, he’s won 25. For the whole season he’s won 70% of the matches he’s played, one of only four players in the field to have done so alongside MVG, Luke Humphries and Dirk Van Duijvenbode.

Josh Rock isn’t far behind in this respect at 67.5%. He’s actually made one more final than Heta this season but he’s lost all three of them, two on the floor and one in a Euro Tour event.

These two are yet to meet this season but did so on six occasions last season, winning three apiece, Heta winning the first three, Rock winning the latter three. It’s Rock who’s won the bigger clashes as his victories were in two semi-finals on the floor, both by 7-3 margins and their only meeting on stage, in the Hungarian Darts Trophy, 6-4.

Rock suffered a somewhat surprise early exit in the UK Open losing to Luke Woodhouse 6-2 but his opponent was terrific on the day. I’m taking Rock to prevail here and make it four wins on the spin versus ‘The Heat’. The precocious talent is averaging 96.87 for the season despite arguably not playing as well as last year. I think there’s more to come and this could kick start an excellent week for him, in what should be a high standard encounter.

Heta has an average high checkout per match of 103.02, this is the highest of all eight players in the afternoon session, and he may be reliant on a big checkout or two in a game where he could be under considerable pressure throughout.

Scoreline prediction: 7-10

James Wade (5/6) vs Chris Dobey (5/6)

Overall H2H: 5-3 (TV: 2-1)
2023: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average:
Wade: 95.23
Dobey: 96.06
180s per leg in 2023:
Wade: 0.22
Dobey: 0.32
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
Wade: 43.42
Dobey: 37.21
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
Wade: 19.23
Dobey: 18.48

The bookies can’t split these two as the 2007 World Matchplay champion takes on the 2023 Masters champion.

Wade has found some form. Two weekends back he enjoyed his best run in a tournament of the year as he reached the last four of the European Darts Matchplay, losing 7-5 to Luke Humphries despite amassing 10 180s and boasting an average 109.12. He defeated Jonny Clayton, Rob Cross and this season's breakthrough sensation Gian Van Veen during this event, which also included another match where he averaged 107.37.

This high standard was backed up on the floor last week where he threw a 104.85 average in beating Radek Szaganski in the opening round of Players Championship 16, a tournament where he went on to lose to eventual champion Damon Heta. Only once in his last 11 matches has he averaged below 96. It really has been excellent stuff of late from ‘The Machine’.

Dobey, who secured a spot in this year's Premier League by winning the Masters in January, hasn’t been playing too badly either. Three of his last four matches he’s averaged 100+. He’s had a couple of decent runs of late too reaching two quarter-finals on the floor since May but those aside there’s been nothing too much to shout about.

One thing noticeable about his matches this season is he seems to run into big performances. His opponents over the course of the year are averaging a healthy 94.45 and, despite averaging 100+ himself in 26 matches during this campaign, he’s lost nine of those 26.

He’ll want to win here to erase the memories of last year where he was in cruise control, leading 8-2 at the second interval versus Rob Cross in the opening round, only to lose 11-9.

These two haven’t met since July 2021 and it's Wade with the 5-3 head to head lead. Looking back at these matches only two have been close. The others have been comfortable for the victor with scorelines of 6-1 (twice), 10-4 and 16-5 among the outcomes.

Despite the aforementioned 10 maximums by Wade recently it’s ‘Hollywood’ who is the stronger scorer in this respect on the whole. It’s Wade who’s the better finisher however, hitting 43.4% of his double attempts on stage, only bettered by Brendan Dolan in this field this year.

I’m going with recent form here and siding with ‘The Machine’. The 2007 champ and six-time finalist loves this format and has looked sublime of late, posting some great numbers.

Scoreline prediction: 10-8

EVENING SESSION

Nathan Aspinall (1/2) v Krzysztof Ratajski (6/4)

Overall H2H: 3-4 (TV: 1-3)
2023: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average:
Aspinall: 96.45
Ratajski: 95.34
180s per leg in 2023:
Aspinall: 0.30
Ratajski: 0.19
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
Aspinall: 36.67
Ratajski: 34.21
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
Aspinall: 19.75
Ratajski: 17.11

‘The Asp’ has been producing an excellent standard since the beginning of May, with 11 ton-plus averages in 23 matches. Results however haven’t been as impressive, with just 12 victories in these games, in fact you surprisingly have to go back to April for the last time he strung more than two successive wins together.

He’s reached one final in 2023, if you exclude the Premier League weekly events, and this was on the Euro Tour at the beginning of April, where he lost 8-5 to Michael Smith in the German Darts Grand Prix.

Ratajski has been in the winner’s circle, capturing Players Championship Nine in mid-April where he defeated the likes of Dave Chisnall, Josh Rock and Jonny Clayton. Prior to this he was runner-up at Players Championship Eight, losing to Gary Anderson, and reached the semi-finals of Players Championship Seven, losing to Josh Rock.

That was a particularly golden spell for ‘The Polish Eagle’ who between March 13 and April 15 won 25 of the 29 matches he played. Since then however he’s played 25 matches, winning just 11. Essentially this is a game between two players who are performing well but not having the results to back it up.

Ratajski lost in the quarter-finals in 2020 to Michael Smith, reached the last four in 2021 where he found Dimitri Van den Bergh too good, and then last year lost a humdinger against Peter Wright 13-11 in the second round. Aspinall reached the quarters last year, losing an enthralling game against MVG 16-14 after opening up with victories over Luke Humphries and James Wade.

The H2H record reads 4-3 in favour of Ratajski and this includes a 3-1 lead in TV encounters. Aspinall however has won the last two matches including a convincing 8-3 win in the final of Players Championship 22 last year.

Both reached the last eight of the Polish Darts Masters last weekend and this is a close call. At the odds I’m happy to side with the underdog.

Scoreline prediction: Aspinall 8-10 Ratajski

Luke Humphries (2/5) vs Jose De Sousa (7/4)

Overall H2H: 4-7 (TV: 0-1)
2023: 1-1 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average:
Humphries: 97.84
De Sousa: 93.62
180s per leg in 2023:
Humphries: 0.33
De Sousa: 0.32
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
Humphries: 40.69
De Sousa: 39.35
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
Humphries: 23.96
De Sousa: 25.68

‘Cool Hand’ Luke is enjoying another successful season and is a five-time finalist on the Euro Tour in 2023, winning the latest one 8-7 against Dirk Van Duijvenbode to claim his first trophy of the year. He quickly backed this up by winning Players Championship 15 last Monday, coming through another last leg decider to defeat Dave Chisnall 8-7.

He has however suffered a frustrating time in the big TV events of late. He was somewhat underwhelming albeit he was ill during the World Championships in December. He lost in the last 16 of the UK Open to MVG, the last 16 of The Masters to Chris Dobey, and suffered quarter-final exits in the Bahrain Darts Masters, Nordic Darts Masters and the Poland Darts Masters last weekend.

The one event that will probably irk him the most however is the US Darts Masters, where he lost in the semi-finals to Jeff Smith in what was a good opportunity to reach a World Series of Darts event final. Humphries boasts a 72.9% win record in 2023 and that is only bettered by Dirk Van Duijvenbode so there are plenty of positives for him too, without necessarily the rewards at the highest level.

The enigmatic Jose De Sousa is his opponent on Sunday and ‘The Special One’ has a fairly good record against Humphries. He has won seven of their 11 previous encounters and it’s two apiece over the past two seasons despite Humphries rapidly rising up the ranking and De Sousa going the other way.

A lot was made of Jose’s slump in form coming into this event last year but he produced some good stuff to defeat Gabriel Clemens and Rob Cross to reach the quarter-finals, where he lost 16-14 to Gerwyn Price to emphasise that he can still turn up and a be a force to be reckoned with.

It’s been a similar story this season with glimpses of what he’s capable of. He reached the final Players Championship 10 in April, losing the final 8-3 to Dirk Van Duijvenbode, but he did defeat tonight’s opponent on that day to successfully reach the final.

He also showed a further glimpse of his prowess at Players Championship 16 last week, losing in the semis to Ryan Joyce but defeating Jonny Clayton 6-3 in their quarter-final with a 109.35 average, his highest of the year.

While the safer proposition appears to side with Humphries for the match outcome in the two matches they’ve played this year, De Sousa has hit seven maximums in both games compared to the two and zero for Humphries.

There’s hardly anything between them in the 180 per leg count over the course of 2023 and it’s quite a tasty match double for Luke to win and Jose to muster the most maximums.

Scoreline prediction: 10-7

Michael Van Gerwen (1/9) vs Brendan Dolan (5/1)

Overall H2H: 16-6 (TV: 4-0)
2023: 0-1 (TV: 0-0)

Seasonal Average:
Van Gerwen: 97.77
Dolan: 92.50

180s per leg in 2023:
Van Gerwen: 0.28
Dolan: 0.14

Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
Van Gerwen: 40.07
Dolan: 49.50

Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
Van Gerwen: 18.45
Dolan: 14.10

What we witnessed last weekend from Michael Van Gerwen on his way to winning the Poland Darts Masters was just majestic. It was folly of me to think so and I wasn’t alone in having these thoughts but I expected MVG to struggle given his recent extensive dental surgery, especially on the back of his exploits on the Euro Tour the weekend before. I couldn’t have been more wrong.

He produced match averages of 110 and 113, was hitting 180s at a rate of more than one every two legs and was 56.25% on his doubles. He just pummelled his opponents; it was brutal stuff from Mighty Mike. He’s won the last three TV events he’s played in and lost in the final of the previous one the UK Open. There’s no doubt the defending champion is going to be hard to dislodge this week in Blackpool.

He starts off his campaign against ‘The History Maker’ Brendan Dolan who won their sole encounter this season and comes into this in relatively decent form himself after reaching the semi-finals of Players Championship 15, and picking up a nice win over Josh Rock. That was in fact his third SF run of 2023.

Dolan can blow hot and cold however. He’s won three games this season 6-0 and lost three games by the same margin, two of these defeats coming in his last 11 matches. His averages are sporadic. His last six matches, he’s averaged in the 80s twice, 90s twice and ton-plus twice. He has the second lowest seasonal average in the 32-man field and it would be a big shock if he were to advance here.

MVG is much more consistent, he’s thrown an average of 95+ in 22 of his last 28 matches and I’d expect even a sub par van Gerwen to have too much here. The odds suggest that and it’s hard to argue any different given their head to head record favours MVG 16-6 and that includes a 10-7 win for MVG at this stage of the 2020 Matchplay.

Scoreline prediction: 10-5

Michael Smith (1/9) vs Steve Beaton (5/1)

Overall H2H: 14-3 (TV: 2-1)
2023: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
Seasonal Average:
Smith: 95.89
Beaton: 91.82
180s per leg in 2023:
Smith: 0.34
Beaton: 0.20
Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
Smith: 39.83
Beaton: 41.38
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
Smith: 26.37
Beaton: 19.35

The double session of action concludes with world number and world champion Smith taking on The Bronzed Adonis, Beaton.

The draw has undoubtedly worked out well for ‘Bully Boy’, who boasts a 14-3 head to record against tonight’s opponent, but one of those defeats did come in this event in 2016 when Beaton won 11-7. A lot has happened in the world of darts since then and there’s no doubt Smith is a much better player now.

Smith has recently moved to a new manufacturer and produced some terrific darts immediately with them as he averaged 111.33 in a stunning defeat of Josh Rock at the European Darts Matchplay at the start of this month before losing to Dirk Van Duijvenbode in the quarter-finals.

He skipped the Pro Tour events at the start of last week but we did see him last weekend in the Poland Darts Masters where he was swept aside in the semi-finals by Michael Van Gerwen, who was in stunning form.

Smith has always been a powerhouse scorer and once that first dart lands you expect him to fill up the treble bed with the following two. His 180 per leg ratio of 0.34 is amongst the elite in this metric and he’s already amassed over 300 for the season. If he finds his rhythm he should have way too much for his opponent, who has the lowest seasonal average in the field at 91.82.

There’s been glimpses of the old Beaton magic here and there with a quarter-final at the Baltic Sea Darts Open being the pick of his escapades this season. He was knocked out in the last 64 of both recent Pro Tour events however and that sums his season up.

He’ll have to raise his game here or hope ‘Bully Boy’ has an off day but it’s hard to envisage Beaton advancing here. This could be a nice comfortable night for Smith if he gets into a rhythm early.

Scoreline prediction: 10-4

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