Gerwyn Price (Picture: Kieran Cleeves/PDC)

Grand Slam of Darts 2023: Day three predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Carl Fletcher

Darts

Mon November 13, 2023 · 2y ago

It’s day three of the 2023 Grand Slam of Darts so check out Carl Fletcher’s match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

Groups A to D conclude on Monday night and there’s plenty to play for and star-studded line up in action.

Here’s our match-by-match guide to all the action…

Darts betting tips: Grand Slam of Darts day three

1pt Ratajski (-3.5 legs) to win at 5/2 (BetVictor)

2pts Dobey to beat Clayton at evens (Paddy Power)

1pt Luke Humphries (-2.5) to win at 11/8 (bet365)

SL Acca: Price, Rock, Anderson, Humphries & Ratajski all to win at 3/1 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Evening Session (1900 GMT)

TV Coverage: Sky Sports
Format: Group stage, best of nine legs sets

Gerwyn Price (4/11) vs Gian Van Veen (2/1)

Three Dart Average (2023): 98.77 – 96.51
180s per leg (2023): 0.33 – 0.31
Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 41.20% - 41.95%
100+ Checkout Per leg won (2023): 12.83% - 11.08%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 38.46% - 25.58%

Price is through, Van Veen is out regardless of the result in this game. Price has roared through with 5-0 and 5-1 victories in his opening two games. Phil Taylor in 2013 only lost one leg in the three group games so could Price emulate that here?

I certainly fancy him to come out on top and Van Veen must be devoid of confidence having lost ten of his last eleven legs in this event since leading Ryan Searle 4-0.

He’ll certainly not be buoyed by his record against Price which reads, played four, lost four. Those games being 8-4, 8-1, 6-5 and 6-1.

Price has been in this position before and in 2021 he lost a relative dead rubber 5-4 to Martin Schindler so you'd imagine he’ll want to avoid a repeat of that here.

It’s been a good season for Van Veen and there’s still big events ahead for him and he hopefully won’t be too disheartened by events here. I can’t see him defeating Price though given what we’ve seen from the ‘Iceman’ in this event so far. It could be another wide margin victory.

Score Prediction: 5-1

Josh Rock (4/11) vs Berry Van Peer (2/1)

Three Dart Average (2023): 96.26 – 89.55
180s per leg (2023): 0.27 – 0.18
Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 38.60% - N/A
100+ Checkout Per leg won (2023): 12.54% - 11.90%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 23.70% - N/A

Josh Rock has won 5-2 and 5-1 in his two group games and is safely through to the Last 16 already. Those two victories were over Chris Dobey and Jonny Clayton and getting into early leads has allowed him to dictate both his games.

Berry Van Peer has averaged higher than his opponent in his two games versus Chris Dobey and Jonny Clayton but enters this game on zero points and with no chance to advance.

They’ve met twice previously and it’s one win apiece and 9 legs apiece, both winning their games 6-3. Rock has looked more assured of the two so far this weekend and with the higher confidence of the two I expect him to make it three from three.

Rock is scoring very well as his 110.74 first nine dart average suggests but he has been sloppy on his finishing, missing 17 darts at the double in his two matches. Van Peer has also been profligate on his doubles, missing 19 himself and having darts at the double in six of the ten legs he’s lost. The pace will be slowed by Van Peer as Rock likes to rattle on at some speed but if he can negate that then a comfortable win beckons.

Score Prediction: 5-2

Gary Anderson (2/7) vs Steve Lennon (5/2)

Three Dart Average (2023): 98.96 – 92.80
180s per leg (2023): 0.33 – 0.20
Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 36.22% - 26.25%
100+ Checkout Per leg won (2023): 11.30% - 10.50%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 33.61% - 14.89%

Steve Lennon led 2-0 against Luke Humphries before being brushed aside 5-2 despite an average of 96.13 in his opening group game. He was a shadow of that last night however as he lost by the same score line averaging just 84.08 and hitting just two of his fourteen attempts at the double. It was a real missed opportunity for ‘Scuba Steve’ who had darts at the double to win each of the first five legs.

He faces Gary Anderson who was readily brushed aside by Luke Humphries last night 5-1 but surely that was just a blip for the Tour Card holder with the highest seasonal average in 2023. ‘The Flying Scotsman’ has reached five finals on the floor, winning three. He’s been ultra-consistent.

These pair have only met once and that was in a big game with a relatively short format, the World Cup of Darts final in 2019. Scotland won that event, but Lennon got Ireland off to a winning start in that match, winning 4-2 against Anderson.

It was a memorable event for Ireland and arguably the highlight of Lennon’s darting career to date but he’s not consistently had these peaks since. He’s been steady this year but currently sits 59th on the live PDC Order of Merit so has to be worried that his tour card could be at risk.

Despite Lennon having plenty to play for and Anderson not quite being at his best in this event so far I think the Scot will have too much in this one and advance to the next round.

Score Prediction: 5-2

Dirk Van Duijvenbode (2/1) vs Luke Humphries (4/11)

Three Dart Average (2023): 95.90 – 98.17
180s per leg (2023): 0.37 – 0.33
Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 41.04% - 41.18%
100+ Checkout Per leg won (2023): 11.74% - 10.65%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 35.48% - 25.66%

Gary Anderson came into this tournament with the highest seasonal average but last night Luke Humphries brushed aside him with relative ease. ‘Cool Hand’ averaged 100.87 to run out a 5-1 victor against ‘The Flying Scotsman’ who averaged a respectable 93.51 against him; at times Humphries just makes the game look easy.

The recent World Grand Prix champion has been in irresistible form over the past two years and now he’s broke that Major champion tag, you can only think this is just the beginning of what should be a glittering career for him.

He’s in terrific form, there’s no doubt about it. He has the highest win percentage of all Tour Card holders in 2023 at 75%, his tournament average so far this year is 100.68 and he’s lost just three legs so far. He’s not officially through yet but I can’t see him being troubled here.

Dirk has been struggling with a shoulder injury and that early season standard is just a distant memory at present. He came into this event on the back of four straight defeats and he did nothing to suggest that will change quickly as he lost 5-4 to Gary Anderson on Night One with just an 85.63 average. Despite him leading 4-2 in that game Anderson looked the likelier winner throughout.

He did however pick up a 5-2 victory over Steve Lennon last night despite an even lower average of 83.86 and to be honest that average only remained that high due to a couple of big finishes of 139 and 136.

With Humphries looking red hot now and Dirk not even lukewarm it would be a surprise if Dirk could turn him over here. A comfortable win for Humphries for me in this one.

Score Prediction: 2-5

Ryan Searle (1/3) vs Nathan Rafferty (9/4)

Three Dart Average (2023): 95.14 – 89.81
180s per leg (2023): 0.26 - 0.17
Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 34.74% - 42.86%
100+ Checkout Per leg won (2023): 11.88% - 10.31%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 24.07% - 5.97%

It’s all to play for in this game as winner takes all and advances to the knockout stages.

‘Heavy Metal’ will be hoping it goes as straightforward as their only previous encounter back in 2022 where he won 6-1 and averaged 103.47. From what we’ve seen so far in this event however he’s been far from his best.

He was fortunate to pick up his win against Gian Van Veen having trailed 4-0 and surviving multiple match darts before fighting back to win 5-4. He also found himself 4-0 behind against Gerwyn Price but the Welshman saw the job through to win 5-0. Searle could’ve actually lost both games 5-0 had Gian Van Veen hit any of three match darts at the double in the fifth leg.

Rafferty has been involved in two 5-1 encounters. Losing by that score line to Price in his opener before producing a seasons best average of 103.09 to demolish Gian Van Veen by that margin in what was somewhat of a shock given what we’ve seen from the two so far in 2023.

Both these came through the qualifiers and both survived match darts to feature here, now the winner of this will be guaranteed a minimum pay day of £12,500 and still in the hunt for the winners prize of £150,000.

Searle is the higher ranked of the two and has been more consistent overall in 2023. He has a win percentage of 65% compared to the 41% of Rafferty. Rafferty’s deepest run this year is to the Last 16 twice in two Players Championship events, whereas Searle has reached three finals, winning one.

I can’t oppose Searle here and if he plays like we know he can, he can make life easier than it could be for him.

Score Prediction: 5-3

Krzysztof Ratajski (2/9) vs Nathan Girvan (3/1)

Three Dart Average (2023): 94.96 - 86.17
180s per leg (2023): 0.17 – 0.22
Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 34.33% - N/A
100+ Checkout Per leg won (2023): 11.38% - 7.46%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 19.33% - N/A

Krzysztof Ratajski reeled in the big fish and averaged 12.01 higher than Michael Smith on Sunday night but it wasn’t enough as ‘Bully Boy’ did the right things at the right time to win in a last leg shootout.

‘The Polish Eagle’ will feel confident of progressing knowing victory here will guarantee progress into the Last 16. His tournament stats certainly suggest he’s playing very well. His average is 100.12, his scoring average is 116.31 and his average winning leg is 13.56, he will however want to brush up on his doubles, which stands at just 30%.

His opponent, young Nathan Girvan is averaging 81.08 for the event, some 19 points lower and he has been readily defeated 5-2 by both Michael Smith and James Wade. He will probably feel last night was a missed opportunity as he led 2-0 and had darts to win three of the five legs he lost. Having said that James Wade missed two darts to win the opening leg and a further four in the second so could there’s an argument to say he could’ve lost 5-0 also.

I can’t see Girvan troubling Ratajski this evening, especially when you’d have to argue that Ratajski has looked the most consistent and strongest of the quartet in Group A. That shouldn’t be a shock however as despite the results not backing his standard up, he’s averaged 94+ in each of his last eleven matches and averaged 100+ in four of his last seven. Take the ‘Polish Eagle’ to rack up a wide margin victory, this could even be a whitewash.

Score Prediction: 5-1

James Wade (11/8) vs Michael Smith (8/15)

Three Dart Average (2023): 94.77 – 95.59
180s per leg (2023): 0.21 – 0.31
Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 41.06% - 39.88%
100+ Checkout Per leg won (2023): 13.69% - 12.53%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 18.98% - 28.06%

Michael Smith kept his amazing 18 match winning run in group stage matches going yesterday which now stretches back six years as he defeated Krzysztof Ratajski despite averaging 12.01 points lower than his Polish opponent. He won however with a 106 checkout in the deciding leg, his highest checkout in the match to demonstrate how important timing is in darts, even when not at your best.

His opponent tonight is ‘The Machine’ James Wade who on the face of it looked to have won comfortably yesterday 5-2 against Nathan Girvan. It was anything but straightforward however as he had to battle back from 2-0 down and young Girvan had darts at the double in a further three legs. It was an off night for Wade who averaged just 84.12 but overall he just had too much for his opponent.

Both played much better on the opening night, Smith averaged 98.91 in defeating Girvan 5-2 also and Wade averaged 96.46 but suffered a last leg reversal against Ratajski. You’d have to think this is the standard we’ll see tonight.

I think Smith’s winning run could end this evening. He’s enjoyed a decent year but not sure he’s quite kicked on as we all anticipated following his World Championship triumph. James Wade holds a strong head-to-head advantage over ‘Bully Boy’ and if he finishes like he can, he could just edge this one and if Ratajski defeats Girvan as most will expect, the defending champion could be out.

Score Prediction: 5-4

Chris Dobey (5/6) vs Jonny Clayton (5/6)

Three Dart Average (2023): 96.12 – 96.17
180s per leg (2023): 0.31 – 0.21
Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 38.99% - 42.69%
100+ Checkout Per leg won (2023): 12.65% - 15.88%
Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 23.81% - 15.92%

Jonny Clayton was bitterly disappointing in his last match against Josh Rock and the 5-1 defeat was a clear indication of the wide margin between the two on that day. He also started slowly against Berry Van Peer in his opener and trailed 2-0 before rallying to win 5-2. That victory was a bit flattering however and his 86.90 tournament average suggest he needs to find more here.

Chris Dobey won The Masters early in the year and has reached the Quarter-Final of both the World Grand Prix and European Championships in recent months.

He’s not quite matched that standard here. He comfortably lost 5-2 to Josh Rock in the opening match but managed to grind out a 5-4 victory against Berry Van Peer in his second match, with a steady if unspectacular 92.72 average. His tournament average is 89.67 but overall I think he’s looked better than Clayton in their first two group games.

He’ll have to overcome an opponent however who has enjoyed the better success against him. Clayton has won their last five clashes, four of which were this year. I don’t think Dobey is playing anywhere near his best but Clayton is playing much lower than he can and has been doing so now for quite some time. That’s enough for me to side with ‘Hollywood’ in this one.

Score Prediction: 5-4