Grand Slam of Darts 2023: Day six predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time
The second round of the 2023 Grand Slam of Darts concludes tonight so check out Carl Fletcher’s match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.
Darts betting tips: Grand Slam of Darts day six
1pt Stowe Buntz, 2 or more 100+ checkouts in the match at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Danny Noppert to beat Stephen Bunting at 6/5 (William Hill, Sky Bet)
1pt Rob Cross to win the match & Nathan Aspinall to hit the most 180’s at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Both the first leg and last leg of the match in Rob Cross v Nathan Aspinall to be won on Double 16 at 50/1 (Sky Bet, Ladbrokes)
SL Acca: Gilding, Noppert, Cross and Heta (+3.5) all to win at 7/1 with Sky Bet
Evening Session (1900 GMT)
- TV Coverage: Sky Sports
- Format: Second round, best of 19 legs
Stowe Buntz (13/8) v Andrew Gilding (4/9)
TOURNAMENT STATS (2023 season stats in brackets. Checkout % is stage events only)
- Average: 89.38 - 93.36 (86.92 – 93.66)
- 180s per leg: 0.09 - 0.05 (0.16 – 0.18)
- Checkout %: 45.16% - 56.52% (N/A - 38.85%)
- 100+ Checkout Per leg won: 21.43% - 7.69% (13.82% - 16.25%)
- Match Treble % in 2023 (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): N/A - 16.79%
Both the first leg and last leg of the match in Rob Cross v Nathan Aspinall to be won on Double 16
The colourful American Stowe Buntz has been one of the success stories of this year's Grand Slam of Darts, topping a group featuring Stephen Bunting, Dave Chisnall and Peter Wright.
It was the opening match of his campaign, a 5-1 drubbing of ‘Snakebite’ with a 102.28 average that has been his highlight but he did follow this also with a 5-3 victory over the in-form Stephen Bunting, despite an average that dropped to 88.46. Timing was the key in this game.
He did lose his final match of Group E, albeit he was already through, 5-4 against Dave Chisnall and similarly his average was 88.79. That suggests to me when you look at his average on the Championship Darts Circuit, which was 86.92, and his averages in this event, he’s got a higher level but his mean is around the high eighties mark. Over this extended format is that likely to be enough for him to go even further?
Well, he’s got a draw that presents an opportunity as this particular quarter looks wide open. His opponent is UK Open champion, Andrew Gilding, who finished second in Group F, winning two from three, his defeat coming against the group topper, Danny Noppert.
‘Goldfinger’ has actually got better as the event has gone on with his averages rising each game. He opened up with an 89.72 average in a 5-3 defeat of Brendan Dolan, upped this to 92.49 in his defeat to Danny Noppert before increasing this drastically to 99.82 in an extremely efficient 5-1 defeat of Haruki Muramatsu.
That average is Gilding's second best average since the start of October, which is a span of 20 matches, over which period has seen him win 12 matches. During his latest match his winning legs were 12, 13, 15, 16 and 17 darts. It really was a seriously good display. Over the course of 2023 he’s averaging 93.65 and throughout this event he’s averaged 93.36. So, we also have an expected standard for him too.
Although both players will fancy their chances of progressing I think the sensible selection to win the match is Andrew Gilding. One angle I like here is the checkout betting. During his CDC campaign Buntz won 13.8% of his legs by virtue of a 100+ outshot, he’s already won 3 legs in the groups via this method, with checkouts of 116, 122 and 137. I think he could have a couple of these in him again this evening.
Score Prediction: 8-10
Danny Noppert (11/10) v Stephen Bunting (4/6)
TOURNAMENT STATS (2023 season stats in brackets. Checkout % is stage events only)
- Average: 89.61 - 97.02 (94.43 – 95.77)
- 180s per leg: 0.28 - 0.28 (0.25 – 0.29)
- Checkout %: 39.47% - 48.15% (41.03% - 37.15%)
- 100+ Checkout Per leg won: 20% - 23.08% (11.48% - 10.98%)
- Match Treble % in 2023 (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 22.56% - 26.85%
Both these players come into this in relatively good form. ‘The Bullet’ has won 14 of his last 20 matches and ‘The Freeze’ has gone one better winning 15 of his.
It’s been well documented that Bunting has increased the weight of dart he’s throwing by 50% in recent months, the improvement on the back of this has been clear. Ton plus averages everywhere, regular deep runs on the floor and lots of people tipping him up for the big events as their dark horse, me included.
Having said that the two televised events he’s played since this change in setup has seen him exit at the last 16 stage. In the World Grand Prix he found Martin Schindler too good and in the European Championship he lost an excellent match against Chris Dobey.
He came through his group at the expense of Dave Chisnall and Peter Wright but it could’ve easily gone the other way. He’s been consistent however and averaged 95+ in all three group games, registering two wins and one defeat.
Having come through the qualifier to feature here. The seeded Noppert topped Group F, which pre-tournament looked one of the weaker groups, with three wins from three, seeing off Haruki Muramatsu, Andrew Gilding and Brendan Dolan.
He’s not looked as impressive as Bunting in his displays as his tournament average of 89.61 suggests but he’s done what he’s needed to and I’m sure he won’t be dwelling on this. We know he’s much better than this, supported by a seasonal average of 94.33, which is marginally lower than that of Bunting at 95.79.
He starts the underdog here but there’s mileage in his price. He recently reached the Semi-Final of the European Championships, where he found eventual champion Peter Wright too good but this was after dismantling Andrew Gilding 6-0 and defeating both Rob Cross and Gerwyn Price.
Noppert is ranked seventh on the PDC Order of Merit, some seventeen places higher than his opponent and he enjoys the healthier head-to-head record, which stands at 5-2 in his favour. This includes two wins from their two matches in 2023, a victory in each of their last four encounters and two victories (again from two) in these longer format games, a 10-7 victory in the Quarter-Finals of the Players Championship Finals in 2018 and more recently a 10-9 victory in The Masters at the start of this year. Take the Dutchman at odds against to emerge victorious in this one.
Score Prediction: 10-7
Michael Van Gerwen (1/3) v Damon Heta (9/4)
TOURNAMENT STATS (2023 season stats in brackets. Checkout % is stage events only)
- Average: 94.43- 94.06 (97.95 – 94.55)
- 180s per leg: 0.17 - 0.28 (0.28 – 0.28)
- Checkout %: 35.71% - 41.38% (39.87% - 38.66%)
- 100+ Checkout Per leg won: 0% - 41.67% (12.06% - 13.24%)
- Match Treble % in 2023 (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 21.17% - 24.53%
Full credit must go to Damon Heta who came through a terrific tungsten tussle against Beau Greaves. His finishing in this game was electric especially the game changing 164 with his opponent sat on just 42 for a 4-1 lead.
That big finish was just one of three ton plus checkouts meaning five of his twelve winning legs so far this week have been by virtue of a 100 plus out shot.
‘The Heat’ finished second in his group and his two victories came by way of winning last leg shoot outs, both against the throw and were either side of a 5-2 loss to last years runner-up Nathan Aspinall.
He now faces three time Grand Slam champion, Michael Van Gerwen here. Following this hattrick of triumphs between 2015 and 2017 you’d have been crazy to suggest at the time that MVG wouldn’t have reached another Grand Slam final over the next five years but he hasn’t.
Last year he lost in the Quarter-Finals to Luke Humphries meaning on the nine occasions he’s been eliminated in the knockout stages he’s lost to a different opponent in each and no one in the bottom half is one of these nine. Will Damon Heta be number ten then?
I think there is belief that he can prevail here. Van Gerwen, like he has against most opponents has the superior head-to-head record but if you look at their clashes in longer format matches, it’s one win apiece. In the World Matchplay in 2021 it was ‘The Green Machine’ who won 10-7 and the year later at the UK Open it was the Aussie who got his revenge with a convincing 10-4 triumph.
Amazingly, these two haven’t played each other in over a year but to add further ammunition to Heta’s claim, he won their most recent encounter in the Semi-Final of the Gibraltar Darts Trophy and in their last ten clashes, their record is five-five.
Further still after an impressive 5-1 victory over Fallon Sherrock in his opening match, Michael Van Gerwen was arguably a tad lucky to come out on top 5-4 in both his next two games versus Rob Cross and Martijn Kleermaker having trailed 3-1 in both. He’s come through as group winner with a 100% record but he’s not at his imperious best and there’s definitely nothing to fear for Heta, who will have no pressure on him.
This could be another close one and the fact they’ve both been involved in four last leg shoot outs between them so far supports this claim. I’m not sure I’m confident to go all in and go for the Heta win but I’m happier to punt on him with a 3.5 leg start on the handicap in our Accumulator.
Score Prediction: 10-9
Nathan Aspinall (6/5) v Rob Cross (8/13)
TOURNAMENT STATS (2023 season stats in brackets. Checkout % is stage events only)
- Average: 90.88 - 97.23 (95.94 – 96.21)
- 180s per leg: 0.20 - 0.12 4 (0.31 – 0.23)
- Checkout %: 35.00% - 45.16 % (37.67% - 41.68%)
- 100+ Checkout Per leg won: 21.43% - 21.43% (11.40% - 13.44%)
- Match Treble % in 2023 (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout): 20.00% - 26.43%
Last year's runner-up Nathan Aspinall will be looking to go one better but he’ll have to improve on his final group game performance where he looked out of sorts, averaging just 82.71 in a 5-4 reversal to Ricardo Pietreczko.
He was already through prior to that match however and defeated Beau Greaves 5-4 with a 97.12 average and then Damon Heta 5-2 with a 94.83 average so I’d be inclined to forgive him his most recent performance.
He faces Rob Cross who came through as group runner-up in Group G to Michael Van Gerwen, the only player to defeat him in his opening three matches. Cross has been ultra-consistent in the event averaging 96.39, 97.19 and 98.36, a small increment in each and when ‘Voltage’ plays like this he must be high on anyone’s shortlist.
There’s not much to choose between them on past encounters. It’s Cross who leads this 6-5. The pair have met once in 2023 and that was in the New Zealand Darts Masters. Cross won 8-7 having trailed 7-6 but ‘The Asp’ never got a match dart. They’ve met in two longer format games and these were both in the UK Open in 2018 and 2019. Cross won the first of these two 10-8 but Aspinall won their most important match to date, the UK Open Final in 2019 by a convincing 11-5 score line.
Nathan won the World Matchplay in July and a couple of weeks later lost in the aforementioned New Zealand Darts Masters final but since that event he’s played twenty-three matches and lost thirteen of them including a seven match losing streak at one point. You add to this, the fact he’s not qualified for the Players Championship Finals and there’s definitely a concern about his recent form.
The same can’t be said of Cross. Since the World Grand Prix he’s played thirty one matches and won twenty two and his defeats on the whole have come against the elite with the likes of Luke Humphries, Micheal Van Gerwen and Dave Chisnall on this roll call with perhaps only his defeat to Niels Zonneveld a surprise amongst these losses.
I’m taking Rob Cross to come out on top but ‘The Asp’ may hit more maximums. His 180 per leg ratio in this event is the higher of the two at 0.20, compared to the 0.12 of Cross and over the course of the season it’s also in his favour at 0.30 to 0.23 per leg.
Also there’s a speculative 50/1 punt included in my selections above and that’s both the first leg and last leg of the match to be won on Double 16. On stage this year both Aspinall and Cross have won their opening leg on this segment more than any other, Aspinall 11 of 40 winning opening legs and Cross 12 of 31.
Whilst winning legs for both are more shared out across the doubles; for Aspinall 18 of his 47 winning legs have been won between Double 16 or Double 8 whilst 16 of 40 winning legs for Cross have been won on Double 16, Double 8, or Double 4 suggesting both prefer going for a finish down this route. It’s worth a small stake bet at the odds available.
Score Prediction: 7-10
- CLICK HERE to back both the first leg and last leg of the match to be won on Double 16 with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Cross to win and Aspinall hit most 180s with Sky Bet
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