Grand Slam of Darts 2023: Day four predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

Groups E to H conclude on Tuesday night so here’s our match-by-match guide to all the action…

Darts betting tips: Grand Slam of Darts day four

1pt Dave Chisnall to win, hit most 180s and the highest checkout at 7/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)

1pt Cross v Sherrock to have over 7.5 legs at 5/4 (Paddy Power)

1pt over 4.5 180s in Heta v Greaves at 5/4 (General)

SL Acca: Chisnall, Aspinall, Bunting, MVG (-1.5), Sherrock (+2.5) & Greaves (+2.5) all to win at 16/1 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Evening Session (1900 GMT)

• TV Coverage: Sky Sports
• Format: Group stage, best of nine legs

Dave Chisnall (4/11) v Stowe Buntz (2/1) (E)

• Three Dart Average (2023): 96.14 - 86.92
• 180’s per leg (2023): 0.35 - 0.16
• Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 36.79% - N/A
• 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 10.37% - 13.82%
• Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & high checkout): 26.47% - N/A

Dave Chisnall will be hanging his head in shame about already being out of the Grand Slam of Darts with a game to spare - and so will I for tipping him to lift the trophy! It's the second time I've done this ahead of a TV tournament this autumn off the back of his brilliant form and both times he's sadly fluffed his lines.

It's a strange one to predict in the sense neither has anything to play for but Stowe Buntz will be on cloud nine and looking forward to the knockout stages on debut while Chizzy will wish he's at home now.

Although the narrative is that 'nobody could have predicted this' about Buntz's shock qualification, I must give one of my followers on Twitter a quick shout out for his response to my outright preview in which I had foolishly ignored the American. He said:

Anyway, as far as this match is concerned, I think a relaxed Chizzy, who is clearly the superior player despite their contrasting fortunes over the weekend, will probably gain a little pride and entertain the crowd with a few 180s along the way. And a comfortable win should give him a fair crack at converting the match treble.

Prediction: 5-2

Nathan Aspinall (1/2) v Ricardo Pietreczko (6/4) (H)

• Three Dart Average (2023): 95.94 - 93.96
• 180’s per leg (2023): 0.31 - 0.20
• Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 37.67% - 43.01%
• 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 11.40% - 14.09%
• Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & high checkout): 20.00% - 17.09%

Just like the first match of the night, this is another dead rubber with Nathan Aspinall already assured of a place in the knockout stages and Ricardo Pietreczko heading for a flight home.

The standard of these players has been pretty similar in recent weeks and months but it was evident that Pietreczko struggled with the crowd against him during his clash with Beau Greaves and the fans in the arena tonight will probably give him more stick against the popular Asp, who will be gunning to top the group and avoid a likely meeting with Michael van Gerwen.

Prediction: 5-3

Michael van Gerwen (1/6) v Martijn Kleermaker (7/2) (G)

• Three Dart Average (2023): 97.95 - 90.55
• 180’s per leg (2023): 0.28 - 0.23
• Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 39.87% - 29.79%
• 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 12.06% - 11.51%
• Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & high checkout): 21.17% - 21.84%

It's hard to see anything other than a dominant table-topping victory for Michael van Gerwen in this dead rubber against rock bottom Martijn Kleermaker, who has averaged in the 80s against both Fallon Sherrock and Rob Cross.

MVG has only managed two 180s in 15 legs so I wouldn't be interested in going for the match treble even though a one-sided scoreline will help his highest checkout chances.

Prediction: 5-1

Andrew Gilding (4/11) v Haruki Muramatsu (2/1) (F)

• Three Dart Average (2023): 93.66 - 87.30
• 180’s per leg (2023): 0.18 - 0.08
• Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 38.85% - N/A
• 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 10.85% - 8.44%
• Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & high checkout): 16.79% - N/A

Andrew Gilding will be keen to win this one with a healthy scoreline and give himself the best chance of progression.

If he can get a 5-2 victory then his leg difference of +3 won't be bettered by both Danny Noppert (+4) and Brendan Dolan (+1), who play next, but any other result and he'll have to anxiously wait to learn his fate.

Haruki Muramatsu could feasibly go through himself if he can win 5-2 or better - but he'll need Noppert to inflict a big win on Dolan - so it's actually quite an intriguing tie.

Muramatsu is averaging much below Gilding in the high 80s so far and I wouldn't be surprised to see a cagey, close contest.

Prediction: 5-3

Danny Noppert (1/2) v Brendan Dolan (6/4) (F)

• Three Dart Average (2023): 94.43 - 92.60
• 180’s per leg (2023): 0.25 - 0.16
• Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 41.03% - 39.78%
• 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 11.48% - 9.70%
• Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & high checkout): 22.56% - 14.17%

Danny Noppert could have some work to do depending on what happens in the previous clash but it'll just be a legs target rather than a need to win.

Brendan Dolan will probably require a victory unless Muramatsu beats Gilding, in which case he'll need to avoid a defeat by a certain scoreline to progress. Could be complicated and it's probably best to stay clear of making bold predictions until you know what both players need to do.

Prediction: 5-2

Peter Wright (5/6) v Stephen Bunting (5/6) (E)

• Three Dart Average (2023): 93.58 - 95.77
• 180’s per leg (2023): 0.24 - 0.29
• Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 38.81% - 37.15%
• 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 13.28% - 10.98%
• Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & high checkout): 14.41% - 26.85%

Nobody expected these giants of the game to be brought down to earth by Stowe Buntz (expect my aforementioned follower on Twitter) and now they face a winner-takes-all showdown.

I did back Stephen Bunting to win Group E at 4/1 in my outright preview so obviously I've got my fingers crossed Chisnall beats Buntz well and then the Bullet shoots down Snakebite by enough legs to leapfrog the American.

I do have full faith in Bunting given his recent form and sky high averages while Wright's average of 81 against Buntz wasn't exactly a shock in a disappointing season apart from his European Championship heroics.

Wright recovered well to beat a below-par Chisnall but his low 90s average won't put any fear into Bunting who I expect to deliver a knockout blow.

Prediction: 2-5

Rob Cross (1/5) v Fallon Sherrock (10/3) (G)

• Three Dart Average (2023): 96.21 - 83.69
• 180’s per leg (2023): 0.23 - 0.20
• Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 39.87% - N/A
• 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 12.06% - 8.69%
• Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & high checkout): 21.17% - N/A

Statistically, it's hard to look beyond Rob Cross to pick up the win he needs to progress to the knockout stages.

But the opponent is Fallon Sherrock, who has a proven track record of producing a standard that belies her mean on these kind of occasions. Betting on her games always seems require more intuition and gut feelings than what the stats tell us.

However, Cross has averaged around the 96 mark across 18 legs of darts so far in this tournament and anything close to that will force Sherrock into one of those special performances if she's to reach the knockout stages for the second time in her career.

My head thinks Voltage will have enough power to get the job done but I expect Sherrock to make him work for it.

Prediction: 5-3

Damon Heta (4/11) v Beau Greaves (2/1) (H)

• Three Dart Average (2023): 94.55 - 85.58
• 180’s per leg (2023): 0.28 - 0.24
• Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 38.66% - N/A
• 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 13.24% - 8.58%
• Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & high checkout): 24.53% - N/A

I backed Beau Greaves to qualify from Group H in my outright preview so anyone who followed that advice now effectively has 6/1 that she beats Damon Heta.

Even if we had nothing riding on this fixture, I'd still fancy Greaves to pull off a shock result based on how brilliantly she played against Ricardo Pietreczko to beat him 5-1 and average in the mid 90s.

She also fired in five 180s in a 5-4 defeat to Nathan Aspinall which shows she has no issues whatsoever with nerves on the biggest stage while Damon Heta certainly hasn't been performing to his very best in recent weeks and months.

They have hit 12 maximums between them so far (Greaves eight, Heta four) in a combined 31 legs (0.38 per leg) so if we see a tight contest then there should be lots for the crowd to get involved in.

Prediction: 3-5

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