jake wc final

Jake Osgathorpe's 2026 World Cup final tips and predictions: Spain vs Argentina

Football
Fri July 17, 2026 · 5h ago

Jake's World Cup 2026 Predictions: Staked 167.85pts | Returned 202.58pts | P/L +34.73pts | ROI 21%

***correct as of 13:30 BST (13/7/26)

Football betting tips: World Cup

2pts Rodri to win 2+ fouls at evens (Paddy Power)

0.5pt Rodri to win 3+ fouls at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

0.25pt Rodri to win 4+ fouls at 7/1 (Sky Bet)

2pts Lamine Yamal to commit 2+ fouls at 23/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

We've made it. The World Cup final. The last game of this 104-match marathon.

It's fair to say the tournament has delivered, with plenty of drama and good attacking football. The only thing missing for us on these shores was getting to watch England in a World Cup final. I'll let you decide who the main reason for that was...

This column has been hard work, previewing every game at the tournament and providing bets for 94 of the 104 matches. I can't thank you all enough for reading and I really hope you've enjoyed the content.

I'm also delighted to have secured profit over the tournament no matter what happens this weekend.

We also have three outrights still running in Argentina to win the World Cup (10/1), Kylian Mbappe top scorer (6/1) and Lionel Messi most assists (14/1), so while the bets for the final are completely swerving the main markets, anyone who tailed those bets has plenty to cheer on.

Enjoy the final!

Spain vs Argentina

Spain have been excellent throughout the World Cup, with their process very repeatable, meaning shock results are unlikely and the ride is like a gentle carousel. They have no extreme highs or extreme lows, it's very balanced and controlled, not thrilling but gets the job done.

Argentina are the exact opposite. Picture the most aggressive rollercoaster ride ever that constantly climbs before dropping you at a rapid rate, then does it over and over again. Their games are very rarely under control, with the reigning champions playing on emotions and moments to get through.

It's remarkable how different they are, and just shows you there are many different ways of being successful in this great game. This final, after all, is between the reigning European champions and the reigning world and Copa America champions.

Both sides were impressive in their semi-finals for different reasons. Spain limited France's incredible attack to just 10 shots equating to 0.31 xG, while Argentina picked their moment to strike against England, pouncing on the Three Lions when they smelt blood.

Spain celebrate victory over France

All-in-all I think these two are the best TEAMS at the tournament. They may not have the best collection of individuals but they have a group that are incredibly together and are all pulling in the same direction.

While they have that in common, the fact that they have extremely contrasting styles means we could be in for a cracking final, though it's one I don't want to pick a winner in. It's so hard to gauge how each sides' style will suit playing against this opponent.

Instead we should focus on what we do know about both sides, which is that they don't mind getting their hands dirty - especially Argentina.

Argentina love getting stuck in

The first half against England was epic, not from a football perspective but from a disruption perspective, and I suspect we see a similar approach in the first 45 here from the reigning champions.

In that first half, Argentina's gameplan was to stop England advancing the ball by fouling, disrupting the rhythm of the Three Lions and specifically targeting two players; Elliot Anderson, England's deep playmaker, and Jude Bellingham, England's match-winner.

Anderson and Bellingham were both fouled three times in the first 45 minutes, with Argentine players taking it in turns to take them out. That will likely be the same tactic used here, with the obvious candidate for the targeting being RODRI, making his even money price TO WIN 2+ FOULS appeal. We're taking this bet with Paddy Power (super sub only) as opposed to the 10/11 with Sky Bet (super sub and extra time) as I think this bet wins in 90 minutes.

Spain's midfield maestro controlled the game against France and does look back to his very best, meaning Argentina will be doing everything they can to stop him, with the easiest way being to foul him. He was fouled three times by France in the semi-final too, and a repeat could be on the cards, so taking RODRI 3+ FOULS WON to smaller stakes is also advised.

Rodri has been excellent for Spain and will be targeted by Argentina

The 3+ we'll take with Sky Bet at a shorter price of 11/4 - Paddys are 3/1 - due to the extra time bonus, and the same goes for 4+ FOULS WON at 7/1 which completes the ladder. If my theory is correct, Argentina will be hellbent on stopping Rodri dictate the game just as they were against England where Anderson was fouled four times.

England's big match-winning threat Bellingham was also felled four times in the 90 minutes, and that means Lamine Yamal could also be targeted. While Yamal's fouls won prices are not worth taking as singles, his FOULS COMMITTED prices certainly are, with the youngster more than happy to get stuck in too. In the last three knock-out games, Yamal has made a combined 10 fouls (5-2-3), so the 23/20 available for him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS looks huge.

Lamine Yamal has been doing the dirty work at this tournament

His record speaks for itself, but I also think there is a possibility of retaliation from Yamal for getting kicked left and right, a bit like Bellingham on Wednesday who committed two fouls himself, while the other big reason I love this bet is Yamal's opponent - Nicolas Tagliafico.

Argentina's left-back has been a foul-drawing machine at this tournament, winning 3.28 fouls per 90, so looks a perfect sparring partner for an overzealous and sometimes cynical Yamal. His foul on Kylian Mbappe in the semi-final was a prime example of what he's capable of, and if things aren't going Spain's way, he could very well lose his head.

Score prediction: Spain 1-1 Argentina (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)

Odds correct at 13:00 BST (17/07/26)

More World Cup content from Sporting Life

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.