Football betting tips: World Cup
1.5pts Over 5.5 Ecuador corners at 21/10 (BoyleSports)
0.75pts Over 9.5 Ecuador corners at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
Germany have the privilege of being one of the handful of nations who know their position in the knockouts already. They've won Group E thanks to the head-to-head ruling but even if that wasn't in place, it's still a seven-goal advantage over Côte d'Ivoire on goal difference.
Ecuador simply have to win. Anything less and it almost certainly won't be enough to progress as a third-placed side.
The tournament they've experienced has played out as expected based on qualification performances. No goals scored, one conceded - you can point to a defensive record perhaps being perfect for a World Cup but again we ask where do the goals come from?
Currently, the answer is nowhere. I'm not too sure how it goes for them on Thursday night either. Just because a team has to win does not mean they will win, although they've got the advantage of playing a Germany side which will surely be heavily rotated.
Deniz Undav gets his second of the game and secures the win for Germany 🇩🇪 pic.twitter.com/IRQRTbrTNH
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) June 20, 2026
Potential German starters in Nadiem Amiri, Maximilian Beier and Jamie Leweling have all enjoyed positive seasons and will be keen to impress. It should still be a lively enough front line to cause Ecuador some issues.
And I wouldn't be surprised if they took the lead, as bizarre as that feels to say for a side a shade of odds-on to win the match. The longer Ecuador aren't ahead, the more emphasis there will be on them to attack.
I was considering taking Antonio Rüdiger for 1+ total shots in the game at 11/8, which is still a fine bet if you fancy it, but I was put off a little bit by Germany's lack of creativity from corners given the high amount they've seen so far.
Instead, I'm tapping into the potential game state and siding with OVER 5.5 ECUADOR CORNERS at 2/1 and above, with OVER 9.5 also taken in case we hit a real stage of desperation.
We saw this during the 0-0 draw with Curacao. A first-half playing out as expected in terms of the chances returned just the single corner for Ecuador. The half-time team talk in which they must have come to terms with their situation then saw eight taken in the second.
It was a slightly similar story against Côte d'Ivoire, although that game saw a 90th minute winner. La Tri (or La Tricolor if you prefer) failed to take a corner before the break with five after it.
Anything less than a comfortable lead puts the pressure on them to strike again. It'll particularly be the case if the scores are level, or of course they're behind, after 45 minutes in East Rutherford.
They could still take corners if they are ahead but it's preferable they're not. In a must-win situation, I'm happy backing Ecuador to rack up the corner count.
Odds correct 11:10 BST (24/06/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
Group previews
- Group A: Mexico; South Africa; South Korea; Czechia
- Group B: Canada; Bosnia; Qatar; Switzerland
- Group C: Brazil; Morocco; Haiti; Scotland
- Group D: USA; Paraguay; Australia; Turkiye
- Group E: Germany; Curacao; Ivory Coast; Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands; Japan; Sweden; Tunisia
- Group G: Belgium; Egypt; Iran; New Zealand
- Group H: Spain; Cape Verde; Saudi Arabia; Uruguay
- Group I: France; Senegal; Iraq; Norway
- Group J: Argentina; Algeria; Austria; Jordan
- Group K: Portugal; DR Congo; Uzbekistan; Colombia
- Group L: England; Croatia; Ghana; Panama
Outright previews
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