David Ord, Mike Vince and Ian Ogg answer the key questions after the five-day entries were released for day four at York on Saturday.
Are you for or against Notable Speech in the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes?
Mike Vince: I am [for], but as much on the elimination basis as anything. He comes here a fresh horse as we haven't seen him since Ascot and the drop back to 7 furlongs is fascinating. It'll be a first go at this trip for the Godolphin 5 year old. Lake Forest's Lennox form reads well but have those two races in two days at Goodwood left a mark?
Flora of Bermuda is an interesting possible after her wins in the Summer Stakes here and at Goodwood - and remember the yard won it last year - while it's good to see last year's Gimcrack hero Lifestyle amongst the entries. He's bound to come on for his return at Chester - his only run since hitting the jackpot here a year ago.
Ian Ogg: I've got a soft spot for Notable Speech. I was watching Kempton when he won on debut and sometimes it makes you follow them that bit more closely when you've picked up on them early; as long as they deliver, of course, which he did in the Guineas just three starts later.
His turn of foot at his best is stunning and I can't see the drop to seven being an issue but it is disappointing he hasn't been more successful since his Classic and, given his vulnerability and likely position in the market, I won't be backing him on Saturday.
David Ord: First things first, what a fantastic renewal of the race this promises to be, certainly deserving of it's relatively new Group One status.
I like Notable Speech and I think he has the speed for seven, and I'm happy to put a line through his Queen Anne run as for some reason Ascot just doesn't look to be his place. But I worry about whether his usual tactics will be easy to deploy at York over this trip?
There are plenty of viable alternatives and I do think Zavateri is very interesting after his bold return in the Sussex Stakes. He's fresh and a big player.
What’s on your Sky Bet Ebor shortlist at this stage?
MV: Two catch my eye but let's see what Thursday morning's draw brings. Alan King's Daiquiri Bay won the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot last time and should go well but the darkest of dark horses for me is this Love Me Tender, a German import to the Willie Mullins yard for whom he has yet to run.
The Master of Closutton has won two of the last three Ebors and to me, he's loitering with intent right down the bottom of the handicap. Willie Mullins improve a horse? Let's see what happens market and draw wise over the next few days.
IO: Tarriance was first onto the short-list when taking the eye at Goodwood but that horse has bolted now. As a place / exotics option Paddy The Squire. He's twice the price of Daiquiri Bay and is better off at the weights, the winner may be more progressive but that's factored into the odds and Paddy The Squire is unexposed at this trip and has course form.
Emit is another with a very obvious chance for Joseph O'Brien who has had an unbelievable season; fourth in the Royal Ascot contest that provided last year's Ebor winner, the step back up in trip and likely stronger pace should play to his strengths.
DO: Two right now. I agree with everything Ian said about Tarriance. He looks to have been trained for this race all season, ran a lovely trial at Goodwood and has plenty in his favour bar missing the fancy prices.
We haven't about Ascending though who I can't figure out why he's 40/1. Henry De Bromhead's charge is back down to the same mark he chased home subsequent Breeders' Cup Turf winner Ethical Diamond from last season. He shaped with promise two starts ago at Royal Ascot, getting drawn into the race too early, and ran well given an inadequate test at Leopardstown last time. That should have put him absolutely spot on for this.
One other horse on your York Saturday radar please?
MV: Ireland has just about recovered from the celebrations after Sondad won the Scurry at the Curragh for Mick and David Easterby, and Jo Mason and they didn't run at all badly when seventh in the Stewards' Cup last time. The ice cream sales people at York need to be on their guard if the combination strike again in the Constantine Handicap at 16:10 - the post-race celebrations will be well worth watching.
IO: Eniac used to run in the same colours as Emit but was bought out of Donnacha O'Brien's yard last month. He was an eyecatcher in a Leopardstown handicap in May and when well beaten at Down Royal the same month.
Perhaps, he's just a bit tricky but he made a great start for Brian Ellison and his new connections at Newcastle and it wouldn't surprise me if he's been bought with some big Australian targets as the dream. He's a way to go to get Down Under and there will be fancier, higher profile runners in the Sky Bet Melrose but this isn't a project I'm prepared to give up on yet.
DO: I'm hoping Gavriel gets into the closing Sky Bet Dav Reid Finale Handicap for the Gosdens. By Frankel out of a Pretty Polly, winner he's completely unexposed after three career starts to date and bumped into a well-above-average newcomer when second to Najidi Storm on his belated reappearance at Kempton.
It was a very taking return to action for a colt who promises to relish this step up to ten furlongs and he could quickly leave a handicap mark of 95 behind this summer and autumn, potentially at the very first attempt too.
Click on the graphic to listen to our Sky Bet Ebor Festival Preview Podcast
Final question – a best bet for the whole meeting at this stage?
MV: With a half decent draw I think Centigrade can run a huge race in the mile handicap on Thursday.
IO: I think there's plenty more to come from Bearish who is entered for the Sky Bet Mile Handicap on Friday but if the market is a guide, he won't be taking up the entry so I'll take one who is running on Wednesday. It's an obvious one but the Highclere Castle Gin Summer Handicap at Goodwood looks a useful bit of form and was the race Tarriance was fourth in. He had a clear run but neither Small Fry nor Aeronautic did and both sets of supporters were left feeling aggrieved.
I did wonder whether Small Fry lacked the tactical pace to get himself out of trouble on that track but that won't be an issue stepping back up to two miles on the Knavesmire and he can justify favouritism in the Sky Bet Stayers Handicap with Dylan Browne McMonagle taking over from Oisin Murphy.
DO: Mirzimaan is a very interesting prospect for George Boughey and the Shadwell team and he'll do for me in the Mews Hotel Ossett EBF Stallions Nursery on Thursday.
Very green on debut at Newbury, he came forward plenty to spring a 20/1 surprise in a big-field maiden back there in July. He looked unlucky not to follow up at Newcastle next time too, running into traffic problems but quickening smartly once in the clear to go down by a short-head to Asander. It's interesting that connections have him in the Mill Reef and his opening mark looks fair.
Related Sky Bet York Ebor Festival content
- Mark Howard: Haggas hope one for hit-list
- Cunningham File: Fireworks in store
- York day three jury: Is Bacio the real deal?
- York day two jury: Bankers or blowouts?
- York day one jury: Split vote in the Juddmonte
- David Ord: Is the Juddmonte International really a match?
- Ben Linfoot: Best thing about York? The need for speed
- Nic Doggett: The York test facing Gimcrack hopeful Arapaho Gold
- John Ingles: Ombudsman, 30 years after Halling...
- Karl Burke: My York team
- Charlie Johnston: My York team
- Andrew Balding: My York team
- James Owen: My York team
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.al
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
