Andrew Asquith, John Ingles and Mike Vince answer the key questions after the six-day entries were released for day one at York next Wednesday.
Are you Ombudsman or Constitution River in the Juddmonte International?
John Ingles: Constitution River will be Aidan O’Brien’s fourth consecutive Eclipse winner to contest this race and two of those, Paddington and Delacroix found an older horse from the Gosden stable too strong – Delacroix coming up against Ombudsman last year. I think Constitution River might suffer the same fate. His string of wins looks impressive on paper and he won well at Sandown, but he didn’t meet a top-notch older rival there, and Ombudsman will be a far tougher opponent, being thoroughly reliable as well as top class, and he’s been kept fresh since Royal Ascot too, unlike last year.
Andrew Asquith: I would have to be in the Ombudsman camp, as well. Constitution River is the best middle-distance three-year-old around, and it is hard to knock what he’s achieved so far in his career, but it wasn’t the strongest renewal of the Eclipse at Sandown last time. He now faces a bona-fide top-class colt in the shape of Ombudsman, who is Timeform’s highest-rated horse in Europe, and has looked faultless this season. Aidan O’Brien will likely ensure it is a truly-run race and that can only play to his strengths.
Mike Vince: Constitution River for me because he gets 7lb on the weight-for-age from Ombudsman in what will be a race to savour. He's been so impressive all season and we have not, in my view, seen how good he actually is. I also wouldn't be surprised if Item, twice a course and distance winner this season, and over his Derby nightmare, shakes up the front two.
Will the Derby form come to the fore in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur?
AA: I think so. Derby winner Christmas Day wasn’t disgraced when splitting stablemates Benvenuto Cellini and Pierre Bonnard in the Irish Derby last time, but you would have to think the ground will be too quick for him to show his best. The latter is amongst the favourites for the Voltigeur, but he may find a couple too good again, and it is Maltese Cross who looks the solid one to me. He ran a cracker to be second in a soft-ground Derby, and showed his liking for fast ground when resuming winning ways in the Grand Prix de Paris last time, typically proving tenacious at the finish. The long straight at York will enable him to go through the gears and he can set himself up nicely for the St Leger next month.
JI: Yes, but unless the heavens open, I don’t think Christmas Day will come out on top like he did on soft ground at Epsom. His defeat to stablemate Benvenuto Cellini in the Irish Derby shows he’s potentially vulnerable on quicker ground, and I think Epsom runner-up Maltese Cross can turn the tables on him. I liked the way he dug deep to get himself out of a tight spot in the Grand Prix de Paris on good to firm ground last time and he has scope for further improvement. Pierre Bonnard got much closer to Christmas Day at the Curragh than he did at Epsom, and he shouldn’t be far away too on a track that should suit.
MV: The Derby form, in my view, isn't worth the paper it's written on entirely because of the soaking Epsom got on the day of the race. Maltese Cross won a trial well and after his win in France he is strongly fancied to turn the tables on the ground with Christmas Day. But don't rule out the improving Superior Choice - unbeaten in three starts this season and he's improved with each one.
Can Nabati finally win the Acomb for Charlie Appleby?
JI: Is he bred to improve for the step up to seven furlongs? His half-brother is a sprinter and his dam won at six, and he’s entered in the Middle Park but not the Dewhurst, so I’m not convinced. I’d rather be with Aidan O’Brien’s Vintage Stakes runner-up Haffner who looks another good colt in the making by Justify for his yard, though stablemate Giant Sequoia wouldn’t be a bad substitute if he ends up running instead.
AA: I wouldn’t be confident no. He only scraped home at prohibitive odds at Newmarket last time, and Charlie Appleby’s record at York on the whole isn’t a strong one, his last winner at this meeting coming in 2022. A little bit boring but, just like John, I think Haffner is the one they all have to beat. Time may tell he bumped into a good one in the Vintage Stakes and this strong-galloping colt is likely to be better suited to this track. He’s made very good progress with each run so far and his physique suggests he’ll only keep improving with time.
MV: No. The two-year-old races this season have been blighted by small fields on account of the ground and if he does win it'll be a huge pointer to his Newbury conqueror Arapaho Gold's chances in Friday's Gimcrack. The one I like is Gentle Hurricane. Andrew Balding has won this twice in the last four years, including with the ill-fated Gewan a year ago. He sent the Invincible Spirit colt up the road to Salisbury for his winning debut and clearly Balding, with such a record at York, feels he's up to this jump in class.
What’s the first name you looked at in the day one handicaps?
AA: Oisin Murphy probably had his mind made up for him given his low draw when bouncing The Dancing Pirate out in a competitive nursery at Glorious Goodwood, but he did too much too soon and had no extra in the closing stages as a result. It is worth noting that he was a well-backed favourite that day, and his previous form stacks up well, so he’s well worth another chance to prove himself on a good mark in the closing nursery.
JI: Naana’s Shadow is having a terrific summer for Katie Scott and maybe she can land another good handicap in the five-furlong contest for three-year-olds (16:45) before her sights are raised further - the fact that she’s got a Prix de l’Abbaye entry suggests she’ll be running in better company before much longer. All her last three wins at Epsom, York and Goodwood have come with Oisin Murphy in the saddle, so it will be a positive sign if he’s booked again. The fact that she’s a course-and-distance winner is no bad thing and her latest win at Goodwood showed she’s better than ever.
MV: Two sprint handicaps and a nursery mean day one should be sponsored by the 'National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Punters', but in the stayers Roger Varian's Ride The Thunder, taking a drop in class after he didn't get involved in the Northumberland Plate finish, when sent off favourite, has always been on my radar. He drops in class here.
Related Sky Bet York Ebor Festival content
- York day one racecards & free video form
- David Ord: Is the Juddmonte International really a match?
- Ben Linfoot: Best thing about York? The need for speed
- Nic Doggett: The York test facing Gimcrack hopeful Arapaho Gold
- John Ingles: Ombudsman, 30 years after Halling...
- Karl Burke: My York team
- Charlie Johnston: My York team
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