Handicap Hints: Kateira dropped to Langer Dan's famous mark of 141, talented Tellherthename lined up for County

By Matt Brocklebank

Horse Racing

Thu February 26, 2026 · 2h ago

Matt Brocklebank highlights several handicappers of interest following this week's publication of the Cheltenham Festival weights, including a juvenile at 25/1.

Not quite as harsh as the headlines suggest

It’s been interesting gauging some of the reaction to Tuesday’s publication of the Cheltenham Festival handicap weights. In fact, my general feeling is that reaction was somewhat conspicuous by its absence. It seems the days of getting the Irish trainer of the favourite for the Pertemps Final on the blower and have them publicly blast the British handicappers for the unfathomable marks they’ve been given are now over.

Perhaps that's in part down to the fact said favourites were prone to proving themselves anything but badly handicapped when the actual race came around; or maybe it’s because Ireland don’t have the favourite for this year’s Pertemps. Or the Ultima for that matter, or the Plate, or the Grand Annual, or the Kim Muir.

They didn’t have the favourites for the Jack Richards or the County Hurdle until Tuesday either so those moves are potentially quite significant. Koktail Divin now finds himself at the top of the market for the novices’ handicap chase having been given a BHA mark of 150 (1lb higher than in Ireland), while the support for Murcia in the County snowballed after she received 142 (3lb higher than in Ireland).

Koktail Divin, ridden by Darragh O'Keeffe

I’ll admit to being a bit annoyed by the Koktail Divin development, having already backed him for the Brown Advisory, but the last we heard from Henry De Bromhead he was saying he’d go for the Grade 1 unless the ground was testing, so I’m not totally convinced the 150 will sway them otherwise.

Koktail Divin's owner Barry Maloney must have some sense of wanting to get one over the line in the Brown Advisory, having seen Monty’s Star (2024), Minella Indo (2020) and Monalee (2018) all hit the crossbar in his silks over the years. Let’s hope the relatively decent weather forecast plays out as expected.

Willie Mullins’ mare Murcia – in the same silks as last year’s County Hurdle winner Kargese – is a dead obvious one but she leads me to stablemate Roc Dino.

Said to be among the most “harshly treated” Irish runners of all the Cheltenham entries, that obviously reflects the linear view that he’s been allotted 124 back home and 131 in the UK. But who could blame the local handicappers for being a little defensive in this instance, given the connections, the fact he had three of his five qualifying runs in France, and has since finished second to a couple of novices who are among the favourites for the Sky Bet Supreme and Turners?

And if the County Hurdle has been some long-term plan, it may turn out that 131 is actually too low to make the cut for the race anyway. He’s number 47 as it stands (24 max) and while it’s bound to thin out the closer we get to declarations, he’s got more chance of making the final field for the Martin Pipe (43) over the longer trip - which isn’t guaranteed to suit on pedigree, the horse having yet to race beyond two miles and two furlongs.

Reaction to Yeah Man’s British hurdles mark was fairly predictable but it turns out I was some way off with my stab of 138. He’s 143 over fences and 123 over hurdles in Ireland so they’ve split the difference to some extent, handing him 133 ahead of the Pertemps.

All we need now is a ferocious Gavin Cromwell on the line stating he can’t possibly win from such a mark.

How low can you go?

Most of the narrative around the handicap races is understandably driven by what might carry top weight. Those horses obviously set the bar, have the classiest form and will by and large be well known to even the casual racing fan.

But it's worth underling that the odd horse can creep into the Cheltenham handicaps with the sort of mark that wouldn’t traditionally have given them any hope at all. Myretown was only 127 when winning last year’s Ultima by 11 lengths, while Belfast Banter had a rating of 129 when winning the County five years ago.

As well as the novice Roc Dino lurking down on 131, Mullins will be hoping Jump Allen makes the cut somewhere along the line too. He’s also got entries in the County, Coral Cup and Martin Pipe and won a charity flat race at Punchestown 10 days ago, his first outing since scoring at Sandown on the final day last term likely to bring him on a bit physically.

There is a slightly ugly quirk to this year’s Glenfarclas Cross County Chase (another handicap these days of course) as a rule change in the UK this season means horses technically more than 15lb out of the weights – for any handicap race over jumps – will no longer be eligible to take part.

Providing the 162-rated Stumptown is declared here, that rules out the Emmet Mullins-trained J’Arrive De L’Est, a relatively recent French recruit whose mark was left on 126 following his Trials Day second to Favori De Champdou, Gordon Elliott’s 11-year-old who was hit with an 8lb rise from 149 to 157.

Bizarrely, only nine of the entries will be inside the handicap proper and the other nine who are allowed to run will be below the minimum 10-5 and will therefore be wrong at the weights.

Mullins and owner Paul Byrne aren’t the types to miss a trick, however, and J'Arrive De L'Est has shortened up in recent days for Kim Muir, which has a 0-145 ratings bracket. Unfortunately, he's way down the list of acceptors at number 62 for that race as well, so little wonder his name featured among the 36 entries for the Jenningsbet Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on the Saturday of Festival week.

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What goes up, must come down

If you're shying away from the top weights and like me feeling a little priced out when it comes to the unexposed Irish novices that seem to be on everyone's lips, then you might find yourself scouting about for a British horse or two that has been dropped a few pounds. And by a few pounds what I actually mean is a few pounds more than might have been anticipated prior to the changes made to the jumps handicapping system which were initiated around the same time as the formation of the Quality Jumps Review Group in 2021.

The recommendations at the time included “more generous drops where appropriate for older/regressive/non-winning horses” and one trainer who cottoned onto this very quickly was Dan Skelton, who pulled off a remarkable feat in winning back-to-back Coral Cups with Langer Dan from precisely the same mark (141).

There have been plenty of other instances elsewhere but there are few better at campaigning their horses with the spring festivals in mind than champion-elect Skelton and at Wednesday’s press morning he was obviously buzzing about the nine-year-old Kateira, who beat the Champion Hurdle winner Golden Ace at Wetherby in November and has come down 4lb following four less inspiring subsequent efforts.

Her revised mark heading into this year's Cup? Well, that would be 141 of course.

One Skelton horse who hasn’t already been battered in the betting 33/1 County contender Tellherthename, probably due to the fact he’s yet to run for the yard. He does, however, have some smart form in the book and is another to have slipped 4lb in the ratings since being sent off just 11/2 for Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle around this time last year.

Click here for the full Dan Skelton Stable Tour for Cheltenham Festival 2026

It's that race again at Naas

There’s no question the McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is among the hardest races to solve at the Festival – you only have to look at the successful horses’ SPs to figure that out, with an 80/1 winner, two at 33s and a couple of others at double figures inside the past decade alone.

The Irish have dominated recently – it feels a long time ago that Flying Tiger, the last British-based winner, struck gold for Nick Williams and Dickie Johnson – and that trend seems likely to continue, for all that Nicky Henderson, James Owen and Faye Bramley have leading chances according to the market at present.

The past three Irish-trained Fred Winter winners to have previously run on the Flat, namely Puturhandstogether, Lark In The Mornin and Brazil, were all at one stage rated 90 or above on the level and while all eyes are fixed on Brazil's half-brother Saratoga, who had a Flat mark of 92 for Aidan O'Brien, nothing looks quite as potentially well-treated as that one's former Ballydoyle stablemate Genealogy.

A Punchestown winner before finishing fifth in Delacroix's Autumn Stakes at Newmarket as a two-year-old, he was rated a couple of pounds higher (94) than Saratoga when ending his brief time on the Flat for previous connections and he's had the bare minimum three spins over timber, including an eyecatching second to Winston Junior at Ascot, since moving to Denis Hogan.

Last time out he ran in the famed SR Ventilation Supporting Kill GAA Rated Hurdle at Naas, the race that has produced four of the last seven Fred Winter winners, and while well adrift of Saratoga in last of five on that occasion, the BHA have given him a mere 120 as a result.

That does mean he's way down the list at number 52 and needs a bunch of them to come out in order to make the final field, but 120 is often quite close to the cut-off point these days and this is where the NRNB concession (25/1 with a few firms) is in favour of the punter. You should also be fully refunded if the horse ends up being balloted out too, don't forget.

Interestingly, Genealogy was entered for a maiden hurdle at Naas this Saturday but connections have opted against trying to pick up a 5lb penalty en route to the Festival. On balance, I think it's worth taking the risk.

Published at 15:00 GMT on 26/02/26

Handicap Hints series

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Handicap Hints: Kateira dropped to Langer Dan's famous mark of 141, talented Tellherthename lined up for County