Matt Brocklebank picks up the latest developments with a view to some of the major jumps handicaps at Cheltenham and Newbury later this month.
A popular bet and Easy to see why
After what was supposed to be a relaxing family week on the expansive beaches of Fuerteventura turned into a (largely unsuccessful) exercise in avoiding elderly naturists, I’ve returned from the half-term holidays a little less de-stressed and refreshed than hoped.
Thankfully, we’ve all since had a bit of time to take stock (turns out the T-shirt, backpack and sandals combo isn’t merely consigned to cartoon bears), and I’ve set about catching up on all that was missed on the track. With the weights for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, the Greatwood and Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup all officially unveiled in the past 24 hours, at least you can’t really avert your eyes from a quality jumps handicap or two at this time of year.
First up, the Paddy Power and Dan Skelton, who is 0-8 in the race all told but has twice saddled the runner-up and also had a third in the past five years, effectively controls the weights this time with 2021 second – and last year’s sixth – Protektorat top of the pile with a mark of 165. That’s 2lb lower than 12 months ago when sent off a 9/1 chance and beaten 17 and a half lengths.
Skelton has left in four others and two of them have run since the first column, Hoe Joly Smoke raised 2lb to 131 for his non-staying/needing-the-run third behind Three Card Brag over 3m1f at Cheltenham (replay below), and Etalon receiving the equivalent bump up the handicap from 139 to 141 after his Fontwell second to Twinjets over 2m3f104yds a day later.
Both promising efforts to say the least and when you throw in Newton Abbot winner Riskintheground – who I'm already quite sweet on – and the laid-out mare Panic Attack, it’s clear Skelton is all out to land this valuable pot which former boss Paul Nicholls has bossed for the past two seasons.
The two for money on Wednesday were the Sam Thomas-trained Vincenzo (10s general from 14s) and Ben Pauling's Bad (14/1 from 25s with a few firms), while the Nicholls-trained Il Ridoto is now 4/1 joint-favourite with Jagwar, who like Panic Attack is another leading player coming to this fresh. Only Stage Star has won it first time out since Annacotty 10 years ago.
Festival Plate winner Jagwar will be starting out off a 9lb higher mark this season and that brings us to the Irish contingent as the McManus horse beat Gavin Cromwell’s Thecompanysergeant by two and three-quarter lengths at the big meeting here in March.
He’s back for another bite at Jagwar and, having been allotted a BHA mark of 144, he will be 4lb better off with the winner. Since Jagwar went on layaway, Thecompanysergeant finished fifth off a lower mark over hurdles at Punchestown and then wasn’t seen the best effect from off the pace in the Galway Plate before shaping quite well when sixth in the Kerry National when last seen in September.
We’re going back to the white-faced Tranquil Sea for Edward O’Grady in 2009 as the most recent Paddy Power winner trained in Ireland, but everything Cromwell sends to Britain has got to merit respect and he could also run The Other Mozzie (145), who is 7lb higher than when winning over two miles at Ayr in the spring.
The other possible Irish runners are rounded out by two for Paul Nolan and two for Henry De Bromhead – they have Ifiwerearichman (144) and Conyers Hill (135), and Coming up Easy (142) and Theatre Native (135) respectively.
Most of them have felt the wrath of the British chase handicapper (the swingeing jumping tax hike, as it were) simply for daring to venture across the Sea, but progressive seven-year-old Coming Up Easy is a relatively rare case in that his rating of 142 for this race matches the revised figure he’s also been given back home in Ireland.
A half-brother to the ill-fated Pencilfulloflead, who achieved a mark of 153, Coming Up Easy is open to further improvement around this sort of trip after an easy win at Killarney in August and it seems De Bromhead might have got another taste for the Paddy Power after being responsible for last year’s third Lets Go Champ, the trainer’s only runner in the contest since his first attempt with the unplaced Loosen My Load in 2011.
Coming Up Easy is a fairly well-backed 12/1 and goes onto the shortlist alongside 16/1 shot Riskintheground.
Alexei on the rise
There are half a dozen Irish-based horses entered in the Unibet Greatwod Handicap Hurdle too, including top-weight Casheldale Lad (148) for Gordon Elliott, who also has Showcase meeting third Bowensonfire (133) still in the mix.
Tony Martin could be forgiven for letting out a few expletives of his own after Putapoundinthejar was handed a mark of 133, a 7lb jump on his revised Irish rating after being beaten 22 lengths by Casheldale Lad at Listowel in September (he's finished a well-held 10th in the Irish Cesarewitch back on the Flat since then too).
The most interesting developments in the Greatwood are a result of Alexei’s Ascot win on Saturday, Joe Tizzard’s five-year-old quite stylishly landing a bit of a punt in the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle from main market rival Indemnity (replay below).
Halved in price from 14/1 in the antepost market on the back of it, he’s been raised 7lb to 134 and looks capable of handling a step up in grade, while that victory for last month’s Welsh Champion Hurdle second saw the winner Celtic Dino and third Wilful given collateral nudges to the tune of 3lb and 1lb respectively.
Celtic Dino’s initial 4lb rise did look generous at the time and he still just about heads the betting but it’s quite tight at the top between the first three from Chepstow, who are just ahead of Olly Murphy’s Persian War winner Sticktotheplan.
The sliders in the ratings include Nicky Henderson’s Iberico Lord and Ben Pauling’s Fiercely Proud, who have both won quality two-mile handicap hurdles in recent seasons but look a little lost at present (Iberico Lord is entered over fences again next week).
Time to nibble at long-range prices?
Newbury must be over the moon with the current state of the Coral Gold Cup field after Grey Dawning (166) topped a possible 50 runners at the publication of the weights, although they’ll be praying for a deluge of rain with the chase course described as ‘good, good to firm in places’ at the moment.
The latest update on Wednesday morning stated they’d put down 38mm in irrigation last week alone ahead of Thursday’s card, with just six horses declared across the two races over fences.
Purely from a handicapping perspective, it’s worth highlighting that Haiti Couleurs (152) will be running off an 11lb higher mark than when winning the Irish Grand National and the present market leader Myretown (142) resumes off a 15lb higher perch than when bolting up in the Ultima.
The closer we get to the race I have heightened concerns that Myretown’s campaign might be geared around a big push towards Cheltenham and the Grand National in the spring, but at the same time I’d be amazed if he wasn’t up to competing from his new mark given the striking progress he made last term.
Among the recent movers, Three Card Brag is up 6lb to 155 for the aforementioned Cheltenham success and The Changing Man has been raised 1lb for his good second to Henry’s Friend in the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase, a race the Tizzards used as a stepping-stone for 2023 Newbury fourth Eldorado Allen.
Perhaps more significantly, this year’s Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlisle saw two Coral Gold Cup entries – Resplendent Grey and Handstands – fight out the finish. I remain a huge fan of Handstands who went off the odds-on favourite despite conceding a couple of pounds to the eventual winner, but his trainer Pauling has indicated the Betfair Chase is the early-season target.
As for the Murphy-trained Resplendent Grey, he had looked a touch quirky but put it all together in first-time cheekpieces to land the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April and (without the headgear) this has to go down as an impressive victory, for all that the second may have been idling and didn't exactly love making the running.
The slight problem with winning on the Sunday before the Newbury weights came out is that Resplendent Grey doesn’t escape with just the 4lb penalty and now has to step up again to defy a 6lb rise in the ratings at the end of the month. The new mark of 153 is 11lb higher than for his one-length defeat of Lombron on the final day of last season, although the fact Willie Mullins had not only the second but the third, fourth and fifth for good measure suggests Resplendent Grey must have been thrown in that day!
Paggane (148) won the mares’ chase on the same Carlisle card but I’d be surprised if Faye Bramley pitched the six-year-old into this event and the one I’ve got an eye on at decent prices is Katate Dori.
I’d rate his red-hot trainer Sam Thomas among the best in the country in this particular staying handicap category and, providing it cuts up a bit as one would expect, he could end up sneaking in here under a lovely weight.
Katate Dori needs rain – don’t they all – but he was only 7/1 running off the same mark (137) when pulled-up after getting on the back foot due to the iffy standing start in the Ultima and he's a general 16/1 here. That could be worth a small interest prior to Saturday’s intended comeback run in a Pertemps Qualifier at Aintree.
Published at 1550 GMT on 05/11/25
Handicap Hints series
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