Betfair Chase: The key questions ahead of Haydock Park's Saturday Grade One

Will Tard deliver an A Plus reappearance?

Where you stand on A PLUS TARD’s readiness for the Betfair Chase is key to how you approach this.

A glass half-full punter will point to a record fresh (following a break of 50 days or more) of 1-3-2-1-2-3-2-1-2 and have no qualms about backing him first time out. After all, he’s only seven, a dual-Grade One winner already and his Gold Cup second is the best recent form in the race.

But there’s no doubt that when we drill down to his seasonal reappearances Henry De Bromhead has, traditionally, always left something to work on.

On his first start for De Bromhead in November 2018 he recorded a Timeform rating of 142+ at Gowran when second and improved 4lb to 146+ when winning a Naas novice chase on his next start.

The following season he opened with a Timeform rating of 165+ when second at Navan and improved 15lb to 180+ when sinking Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown second time out.

And then last season he returned a Timeform rating of 170+ on his return, again at Navan, and improved 8lb to 178+ when landing the Savills Chase in great style at Christmas.

His last two seasonal reappearances have come over two miles. This is different. But with the Savills Chase at Leopardstown again on his agenda as well as the ultimate goal of the Gold Cup, it shouldn’t be viewed as a surprise if de Bromhead has left something to work on once again.

Of course, he could still win this even if that is the case. He has a lot of other things in his favour – particularly his best-in-class form and the Good to Soft ground.

But, at 6/4, I’m leaning towards glass half empty with those previous seasonal reappearances in mind.

Mai the fourth be with Bristol?

“We should remember that good fortune often happens when opportunity meets with preparation.”

I wonder if Nigel Twiston-Davies has Thomas Edison’s quote hanging in a nicely framed picture on his kitchen wall? It would be apt, as his early-season plundering of prizes like the Charlie Hall and the Betfair Chase over the years can be put down to those two key factors: opportunity and preparation.

Ollie Magern effectively made a career out of being ready for Wetherby’s highlight while others had their eye off the ball and BRISTOL DE MAI has made hay in this race because it is his Gold Cup.

Yes, he has beaten some high-class horses around here: Cue Card, Native River, Thistlecrack, Clan Des Obeaux (twice) and Might Bite. But how many of those were at concert pitch with little or no regard for the rest of the campaign?

For Twiston-Davies and Bristol De Mai it is all about the Betfair Chase. At his best when fresh, his jumping seems to be at another level when he’s had a long time off, and the configuration of this flat track suits his style.

Leaning on those Timeform ratings again, he’s recorded numbers of 180 or above six times in his career and five of those were at Haydock, three of them in this race. It’s undisputable that this is where he’s at his best but there are two question marks with him.

Firstly, will he be the same now he’s 10, rising 11?

And secondly...

How significant will ground conditions be?

It’s GOOD TO SOFT on the chase course at Haydock and a bit better than that on the hurdle course, while the weather looks largely dry bar the odd shower on Thursday.

I was going to say if that’s not a red flag for global warming I don’t know what is, but COP 27 is unlikely to cite Haydock Park as an example of climate change as, looking through recent renewals, these sort of conditions have been more commonplace than I remember.

Three of Kauto Star’s Betfair Chase appearances came on Good to Soft, it was described the same when Lostintranslation won in 2019 and a year before that it was even better ground when Bristol De Mai beat Native River on Good.

There is no doubt, however, that Bristol De Mai’s connections would prefer the ground to be much softer on Saturday. We know he loves Haydock heavy, and you can’t say that about many horses.

We’re back to opportunity and preparation again, with Bristol De Mai’s early-season fitness a key reason why he’s gone through testing conditions better than the others in the past.

It might not be a decisive factor. Bristol De Mai has won this race on similar ground before. But it’s a negative for sure and it could swing things in A Plus Tard’s favour given his career-best run came on similar ground in the Gold Cup.

So what’s the verdict on Royale Pagaille?

Away from the big two, ROYALE PAGAILLE brings a large dollop of the unknown into the equation.

Rated 166 after his 16-length demolition job at this track in the Peter Marsh Chase in January, he didn’t jump as well in the Gold Cup when a well-beaten sixth and with his rating being attained in handicap company the jury is still out as to whether he can compete at this level.

But, with 15 of his 16 career starts coming on soft or heavy ground, conditions are a more concerning factor.

“I don’t think ground is this horse’s Achilles’ heel,” says Joe Chambers, racing manager to owners Susannah & Rich Ricci.

“We’re still finding out. He’ll run as long as it’s safe. He’s got the course form, the race fits well with the rest of the season and it’s the ideal starting point.

“He came back hurt after the Gold Cup. Whether Cheltenham is his track time will tell, but his best form has come on flat tracks. It’ll be interesting to see with a clear round where he lies.

"It will tell us the route we go the rest of the season, whether it’s the graded route or handicaps.

"I saw him myself a couple of weeks ago and he looks well. He’s in good form. He hasn’t had a run in eight months but he’s ready to start back, he’s in a good place in that regard."

With two decisive wins around Haydock on his CV, Royale Pagaille becomes very interesting if he handles the conditions.

What’s the likely Destination for Nicholls hope?

Paul Nicholls is going for a seventh Betfair Chase this year and his sole representative NEXT DESTINATION is the joint lowest-rated horse in the field on 153.

With Frodon, Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname amongst his staying chase artillery it’s slightly surprising that Next Destination is the chosen one for this assignment, especially given his handicap mark might suggest the Ladbrokes Trophy would be a more obvious route.

Next Destination has won around Newbury and looks the perfect fit for the race, which might tell you something about stablemate Enrilo’s chance a week on Saturday.

As for this contest, Next Destination has an awful lot to find on the figures. He’s rated 19lb inferior to A Plus Tard and, given his reserves of stamina, the extended 3m1f at this track on this ground might be a bit too sharp for him.

Perhaps that’s why Nicholls has applied the cheekpieces, to help him travel on the first circuit, but considering he was outpaced by Galvin in the National Hunt Chase they might have to have a startling impact to help him win this.

Can Imperial rediscover the Aura?

IMPERIAL AURA looked to have the racing world at his hooves when winning the Grade 2 Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase at Ascot on this weekend last year.

His best effort yet amongst a sequence that saw him win at the Cheltenham Festival, the King George and Gold Cup were whispered as potential targets amongst racing fans, if not Kim Bailey himself.

Bailey took a more conservative route and wasn’t rewarded, a bizarre unseat at the second fence in the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton in January preceding a poor performance in the Ryanair, where he jumped poorly and bled from the nose.

Still a relatively young horse at eight-years-old, he could bounce back this season and he’s had wind surgery in a bid to help him do so.

Bailey is throwing him in the deep end here, both trip and class-wise, and he looks a similar sort of contender to Royale Pagaille, in that he could run very well – but this is ultimately a fact-finding mission.

Could any of the others get involved?

WAITING PATIENTLY probably deserves his own section on market position – he’s 13/2 third best in the betting – but there’s not a lot to say about him other than that it will be interesting to see if he improves for the stable switch to Christian Williams.

These sort of conditions over this trip do look ideal for him – he was second in Frodon’s King George last year under a similar set of circumstances – and he goes well fresh, but he has been beaten in his last seven races, albeit all at Grade One level.

Considering he’s tough to win with, though, he doesn’t really appeal at these prices.

CHATHAM STREET LAD looks up against it. He was well beaten in the Munster National Handicap Chase last time out and would probably prefer softer ground. He’s got plenty to find, even if his 15-length defeat of Midnight Shadow in last year’s Caspian Caviar looks even better now.

Of the outsiders, CLONDAW CASTLE is most interesting.

Tom George’s horse remains unexposed over three miles and the first time he tackled the distance – in the Close Brothers Handicap Chase at Kempton in February – he bolted up off a rating of 154, suggesting graded chases were his future.

Second to an on-fire Clan Des Obeaux after that, I buy his trainer’s theory that the ground got too soft for him at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall on his reappearance and he should thrive on Saturday’s conditions.

Given there are question marks hanging over Waiting Patiently (tough to win with), Royale Pagaille (ground), Next Destination (having the tactical pace for this trip on the ground at this level) and Imperial Aura (retrieval mission), perhaps he’s one to consider each way.

I must admit, though, I’m put off that particular bet as I find it hard to see him beating the big two.

Who are you backing, then?

At anything north of 3/1, I think we’re getting a very fair price about three-time winner BRISTOL DE MAI.

I’m prepared to chance him on the ground and am fully invested in the theory that he’ll be cherry ripe, while likely favourite A Plus Tard might not be. He's not getting any younger and it might well be a last hurrah, but if A Plus Tard is fractionally below-par he can be too good around here for the rest of them.

Talking of the rest, Clondaw Castle is worthy of each-way consideration at a general 33s.

Published at 1345 GMT on 18/11/21

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