With the first wave of NFL free agency over, and a ton of huge trades also going down, the pro football balance of power is definitely shifting.
We decided it was a good time to take a look at the divisional landscape, to find out which races got better in the last month, and which ones got weaker as we head towards the 2022 NFL Draft.
How we ranked the divisions
One great team or a few great players do not make a strong division. This is all about the sum of the parts, and the race which ensues.
The offseason so far has seen some franchises get stronger (mostly in the AFC), some stumble backwards and a few do very little of anything.
Our divisional rankings are based on the cumulative strength of the four teams involved, the race they will produce during the 2022 NFL season and the postseason danger they pose to opponents.
8 - NFC East
That ‘NFC Least’ moniker still stands - it’s a far cry from the late 80s and early 90s when Dallas, Washington and the Giants were winning Super Bowl after Super Bowl.
Dallas will go into 2022 as a firm favourite to repeat as NFC East champion, that despite an underwhelming offseason so far which saw its roster definitively get weaker. Gone are WR1 Amari Cooper (traded to Cleveland) and RDE Randy Gregory (signed by Denver) along with starting offensive linemen La’el Collins and Connor Williams.
Philadelphia should strengthen considerably through the draft but we have yet to see the proof of what those three first-round picks will yield. As of yet, no great upgrades in Philly.
The Commanders have a new name and a new quarterback, but the trade for Carson Wentz left us remaining distinctly underwhelmed by events in the nation’s capital. Yet again it feels like a desperate reach, one for which they overpaid.
We do expect the Giants to be better in 2022 under their latest new regime led by HC Brian Daboll. Once again though, much will depend on whether Big Blue can keep Daniel Jones upright.
7 - NFC South
A couple of weeks ago the NFC South might have been filling position #8 with the Bucs lacking a quarterback and set to field a weaker roster in 2022.
But now Tom Brady is back and the Bucs have also kept key pieces like Chris Godwin, Carlton Davis and Leonard Fournette. Tampa will start red-hot favourites to win another division title in 2022.
If the challenge to the Bucs was meek in 2021, expect it to be even worse this year. The Saints missed out on Deshaun Watson and instead will return Jameis Winston at QB, while LT Terron Armstead is set to bolt in free agency.
As for the other two teams, the evidence so far is not pretty. Both are in full rebuild mode and highly unlikely to be making a push for the postseason any time soon.
The Falcons went all in on Watson, just like the Saints, and also struck out. They then traded their current starting QB Matt Ryan and took on $40million in dead money in the process. They’ll be able to properly rebuild from 2023, but 2022 will be a mess.
Finally, Carolina was another NFC South team to bid for Watson, but his no-trade clause made that move seem highly unlikely. HC Matt Rhule is on the hot-seat with a miserable offensive line and no QB (unless you count Sam Darnold). Another tough year awaits.
6 - NFC North
A division which didn’t even have a race worthy of the name in 2021, and the favourite just got weaker. Maybe significantly weaker.
Green Bay came into the offseason with cap issues, and while it did manage to re-sign reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the trade of Davante Adams to Las Vegas removes his best (and some would say only) aerial weapon. Using that draft capital well is a must for the Pack.
Minnesota has a new HC in the shape of Kevin O’Connell and his ability to get the best out of Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen et al will be paramount in the coming months.
Chicago remains a frustrating exercise in futility, and the departure of Allen Robinson doesn’t exactly make things easier for second-year QB Justin Fields.
Detroit overachieved in 2021 with admirable effort and excellent coaching from Dan Campbell. The Lions clearly have a plan, and while a winning season won’t happen overnight, we do expect further progression in 2022.
5 - AFC South
Indianapolis trading with Atlanta to acquire Matt Ryan saved this division - it means we have two bona fide Super Bowl contenders and a real race on our hands.
The Colts were running out of time to replace Wentz when the opportunity to pick up Ryan arose. Now they need to add receiving weapons for ‘Matty Ice’ to utilize.
Tennessee will again start as favourite to win the division, with Derrick Henry back to full health and the trade for Rams WR Robert Woods providing an upgrade on the often-injured Julio Jones.
Jacksonville spent expensively and often in free agency, topped by that eye-popping four-year, $72million deal it handed to former Cards WR Christian Kirk. While some of the price tags were questionable, there is no question the Jags should be better in 2022.
At last, after a year treading water, the rebuild in Houston can begin. Trading Deshaun Watson to Cleveland removes the shackles from the Texans front office and adds a ton of draft capital. It will take a while but now we’ll at least get to see what the plan is down in the Lone Star State.
4 - AFC South
The way Buffalo destroyed New England in the 2021 playoffs showed Bill Belichick just how far away his team is from being the favourite to win this division.
The Bills got stronger in the offseason with the splashy signing of Von Miller on a six-year, $120million deal. We will find out this year if he’s the missing piece.
New England meanwhile will again be a playoff team if Mac Jones avoids the dreaded sophomore slump and progresses from a highly promising rookie season. The failure to even attempt to re-sign CB J.C. Jackson though was a surprise.
Miami has made some excellent moves in free agency, starting with the signings of former Cowboys Connor Williams at guard and Cedrick Wilson at wide receiver. They topped those this week by acquiring the best remaining player in free agency - former Saints LT Terron Armstead - and trading for Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. The question mark over QB Tua Tagovailoa remains, but they should be significantly better than .500.
Even the Jets have made some nice moves during free agency, and much will be expected of Year 2 Zach Wilson along with an improved Robert Saleh defense.
3 - NFC West
Arguably the best division in football last year, but one which has stood still at best over the winter.
The Super Bowl champion Rams lost Von Miller in free agency and LT Andrew Whitworth to retirement, though the signing of WR Allen Robinson is excellent value at $15.5million per year.
San Francisco still has question marks at QB with Trey Lance needing to take the next step to replace Jimmy Garoppolo. The team had been expected to trade Jimmy G, and it still may do, but the market is diminishing.
Arizona fell away spectacularly late in the 2021 season after a sensational start, and the loss of Chandler Jones and concerns about the commitment of QB Kyler Murray mean there is unrest in the desert.
Seattle meanwhile is now in full rebuild mode after trading Russell Wilson to Denver. No team currently slated to start Drew Lock at QB has any great postseason hopes. The Seahawks may yet trade for Baker Mayfield, but that would not be enough to make them a contender.
2 - AFC North
This race should be terrific in 2022, with the likely favourite being Cincinnati coming off that trip to the Super Bowl in February. All the Bengals have done since is significantly improve their leaky offensive line - the biggest factor in their loss to the Rams.
Alex Cappa, Ted Karras and La’el Collins are enormous upgrades up front for the Bengals, and replacing the departed C.J. Uzomah with Hayden Hurst at TE is a passable move. Everything is set for another big year for QB Joe Burrow.
Cleveland tooled up for the AFC North battle in 2022 by sending three first-round draft picks to Houston in return for Deshaun Watson. While the former Texans QB could yet face a suspension, he adds the finishing touch to a talented roster which is built to win in the postseason.
Baltimore imploded in the second half of 2021, largely due to an injury-ravaged secondary. Expect a rebound in 2022 with QB Lamar Jackson having something to prove too.
Pittsburgh will start as the underdog, and rightly so. The Steelers failed to land the expected upgrade at QB after the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger. Instead their only move so far is to sign former Bear Mitch Trubisky to a two-year deal. They will need better under center to challenge the big three.
1 - AFC West
Wow, just wow. If we could just sit down and watch these four teams play each other regularly between September and January, we’d be pretty happy.
The Kansas City Chiefs remain the standard and are once again challenging for Super Bowl favouritism - even with the departure of Tyreek to South Beach. The arms race behind them though has been a sight to behold.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for broke in a bid to capitalise on Justin Herbert’s rookie window - notably with the trade for Khalil Mack and the signing of former Patriots CB J.C. Jackson.
Denver already had a stacked roster - it was just missing one piece, a franchise QB. The trade for Russell Wilson fills that gap in a big way, and the acquisition of former Cowboy DE Gregory is another major move.
Last but not least, come the Las Vegas Raiders. It appears Derek Carr will be staying on the Strip and now he has a shiny new offensive weapon in the shape of former Packers WR Davante Adams - acquired in a blockbusting trade.
If that wasn’t enough, the Raiders also made a defensive splash with the acquisition of former Arizona edge rusher Chandler Jones. Catching up to KC won’t be easy but you have to start somewhere.
