Expert Picks for the Open Championship: Guest writers pick out their best bets for Birkdale

Sky Bet's @SportingLife specials

33/1 Knapp to miss the cut, MacIntyre top 10, Noren top 20

50/1 Perez top French, Rahm top Spaniard, Cink top senior, Hovland top Nordic

Jake Knapp to miss the cut

By Niall Lyons

Niall Lyons is a golf trader and betting expert who writes previews for Oddschecker, and provides weekly golf betting insight via @betgolfworld.

• CLICK HERE FOR MISS THE CUT ODDS

JAKE KNAPP led the strokes-gained total category heading into the first major of the year and went on to finish a very impressive 11th at Augusta, but he finished 74th of 82 the following week at Harbour Town and since then has only teed it up in three events.

He missed the cut at the US Open, finished 55th of 72 at the Travelers, then missed another cut last week in Scotland. A sprained thumb was the reason for his spring layoff but three appearances in three months is worrying preparation for an Open Championship.

Knapp's long-game was largely in good shape last week in Scotland but with his main weapon being the driver he really ought to have fared better around a suitable Renaissance. That club won't be taken out of the bag too often here at Birkdale and with this being his first crack at an Open Championship I worry about his prospects.

It's unfortunate that injury curtailed what had been a great start to the season but I doubt his recent poor run will take a turn for the better at an ill-suiting Birkdale, so I'll attempt to double my money by backing him to miss the cut.

Robert MacIntyre top-10 finish

By Dave Tindall

Former Sky Sports Golf editor Dave Tindall is a regular contributor to betting.betfair.com and various other publications.

• CLICK HERE TO BACK THE SELECTION

Perhaps it was no bad thing that ROBERT MACINTYRE didn't get it done last week after starting the final round of the Scottish Open tied for the lead (he finished tied third).

There could easily have been some emotional let-down although this is the man who flew home from Europe's epic Ryder Cup win at Bethpage and won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship by four.

Ah, yes, links. As well as that victory last October, the Scot now has a first, a second and a third at the Renaissance Club and we can find some further relevant form outside of his homeland.

MacIntyre was eighth in the 2021 Open at Royal St George's in Kent, as well as sixth (2019) and seventh (2025) in the two editions at Royal Portrush. We can also add in a second place in the British Masters at Hillside which sits right next to Royal Birkdale.

Simplifying it all, the left-hander has three top-10s in his six Opens. On those numbers he's a value bet to rack up another.

Alex Noren top-20 finish

By Matt Cooper

Matt Cooper is a golf journalist and long-time Sporting Life contributor who previews the women's majors for the website and provides tips for multiple tours for betting.betfair.com and others.

• CLICK HERE TO BACK THE SELECTION

It's really not that long ago that ALEX NOREN was winning the British Masters and the BMW PGA Championship (the end of last summer).

And, while I'm loathe to say a golfer is worth backing because he likes playing in England, it is actually true in his case – it was his second win at Wentworth and he also won the British Masters at The Grove.

More importantly, he is a good linksland performer who won the Scottish Open at Gullane and has six top-20 finishes in his 11 completed starts at the Open. The clincher is that two of them were at Royal Birkdale.

Victor Perez top French player

By Martin Mathews

Martin Mathews is a golf tipster who provides weekly betting previews for the PGA Tour via his own website, and major previews for Paddy Power.

• CLICK HERE FOR TOP NATIONALITIES ODDS

It's not often you find yourself licking your chops about getting involved in the Top Frenchman market in a golf tournament but that's where I have found myself this week.

The 'field' is made up of five runners. Of those five the talented Martin Couvra missed the cut by a long way in Scotland last week and appears to have lost his way of late, while Frederic Lacroix, who is making his Open debut, has also been struggling for form.

The market sees Adrien Saddier as the biggest threat to VICTOR PEREZ, however he has posted nothing better than a 40th in his past six starts. In my eyes the biggest danger is Antoine Rozner particularly as he has a win in Qatar on his CV, often a good pointer to Open pedigree.

But unlike the others, Perez has been tearing it up of late, posting three top-10s in his last three DP World Tour starts alongside five straight top-25s on LIV Golf, where he's bedded in quickly.

Perez qualified for this as a result of his ninth place at the Scottish Open so he will arrive on a high and on the back of another fine links performance. Add in the fact that he is a former Dunhill Links champion and that he bases himself in Scotland and even though his Open record is not strong he clearly has an affinity to this kind of golf.

At juicy odds-against then it is allez Victor for me.

Posted at 16:20 BST on 14/07/26

More Open content

• Open Championship preview
• Ben Coley's specials tips
• Round one three-ball picks
• First-round leader preview
• Matt Cooper's Open diary
• Who creates chances in majors?
• Player-by-player guide to the field
• Royal Birkdale talking points

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