The Open: Five key storylines ahead of the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale

Can Fleetwood handle the heat?

Entering the 2017 US Open, Tommy Fleetwood had just become a world-class golfer known on the global stage. That was because he'd capped a sustained period of quality play with a dazzling final-round 63 in the US Open a month earlier, so nearly enough only for Brooks Koepka to hold firm. Then he won the Open de France, his second title of the season.

Fleetwood became, in his own words, the 'face of the Open', because it so happened to be returning to Royal Birkdale in Southport, the town he grew up in. As a boy, Fleetwood and his father would climb over the boundary fence to hit balls, to watch the Open itself. The timing of his return seemingly couldn't have been better.

Then reality hit. Fleetwood was a 26-year-old playing in just his ninth major. He had three wins, all on the European Tour, and was still more than a year shy of his Ryder Cup debut. Seldom does a player with that profile, even one so talented, enter a major championship with such expectation and fanfare. From a marquee three-ball, he shot 76 and was 133rd after round one. Never since has he been further down the leaderboard on Thursday night.

Friday's 69 goes down as one of the best of his career, proof that he can play Birkdale, proof that he has the patience and the heart to play and win at the highest level. Some say Birkdale compares with Portrush, where he was later runner-up to Shane Lowry. What's certain as that this Open venue, deemed particularly 'fair' in the eyes of some owing to its comparatively flat fairways, has always thrown up world-class champions with deep links pedigrees. Fleetwood fits that description.

But what of dealing with expectation, of being no less a star here than Rory McIlroy, whose performance at Portrush in 2019 is a subsequent, emphatic demonstration of how difficult it can be playing at home? Fleetwood is older, more decorated than he was nine years ago. He's simply better at golf. His form all year has been encouraging and his preparation will be sound after he made the cut in Scotland. But all these things only underline that this appears to be another case of perfect fit, perfect time. With that comes pressure.

With Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton both in excellent form, Matt's brother Alex having gone from strength to strength, and Justin Rose returning to the scene of his fourth place as an amateur, the prospects of England winning at least one trophy on Sunday July 19 look strong. The question where Fleetwood is concerned is will his local connections serve as a springboard beneath his feet, or a millstone around his neck.

The curious case of Rahm

Buried within a typically thoughtful press conference ahead of his return to PGA Tour-sanctioned competition in the Scottish Open, one line from Jon Rahm said so much about the drifting career of this generational talent.

"It does feel like you have two majors in a row without being a major, it's that good."

Rahm went on to make the cut after a sensational second round, the kind which makes him look as good as anyone on the planet. Thursday's first round though was a disaster. He putted badly, but in a field of 156 his iron play ranked 154th. This followed a US Open which had seen him produce his worst figures in memory, some of the worst of his career until he was worse still on Thursday at The Renaissance.

It begs a question his remark goes some way to answering. Why is it that Rahm can only ever finish in the top third of a LIV Golf field, typically much higher than that, while the hallmark of his performances away from it is inconsistency?

The obvious conclusion is the strength of field he was speaking about. LIV's bottom-half players are weaker than the bottom-half of this field, significantly so. Rahm's main rivals are not the likes of Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, but Bryson DeChambeau and Joaquin Niemann. Players like Thomas Detry or Lucas Herbert, good DP World Tour golfers but never quite elite, might join in on any given week.

Rahm has played 35 events on LIV Golf and his worst position is 16th. Even after two rounds, where a cut might have prevented a subsequent charge, he'd never have been in danger, his worst being 20th. He has a 91.4% top-10 strike-rate. Though his average finishing position is sixth, more than half the time he finishes inside the top five. LIV has often championed this as proof of its star player's greatness. Just as true is that it reveals so much about the level of competition he faces.

I think there's a secondary, unquantifiable aspect, and it's to do with significance. When Rahm rocks up to a LIV Golf event, he is not playing for the history he so clearly values; each event is the same bar where it takes place and there is very little chance that people will be playing for these titles in a decade. They are, in essence, throwaway: a means to an end that is drawing ever closer.

There's no doubt that among world-class golfers, Rahm's knowledge of what came before him is among the best. That's why he's been so keen to rack up Open de Espana titles, why he takes such pride in having won the Irish Open twice. Even partly why somewhere like Torrey Pines, scene of his first PGA Tour win and his US Open, means so much to him.

As a consequence, whenever he plays outside of LIV it is under conditions he cannot prime himself for, cannot test himself under. Suddenly, he is being judged; his golf will matter, and in no time at all an opportunity can pass him by. That's precisely what happened in the US Open, where for the first dozen holes he looked menacing, and for the 24 which followed he cut a pale shadow of his brilliant self, feebly retreating out of view.

Rahm is such an incredible talent that, in the face of this challenge, a disadvantage versus two all-time players who represent the only two who are clearly superior in the whole sport, he has still had chances to win majors since leaving the PGA Tour. He should be given credit for the attack he launched at Quail Hollow, perhaps slightly less for a distant second at Aronimink. Still, both reminded us of a truth self-evident: he can win any tournament he enters, including the one taking place at Birkdale.

Nevertheless, what Rahm compromised when joining LIV Golf was control: over how he prepares for tournaments, how he plots his schedule, and how he is able to protect himself from external forces. On some level he surely feels a deep sense of pressure when representing LIV Golf in major championships, like it or not. And he can't test his game under any sense of pressure outside of them, because the titles he's been playing for are LIV Wherever and not the national opens and historic PGA Tour events he always dreamed of winning.

And so Rahm drifts, unsure of what the future holds, that uncertainty another small factor he has to overcome. Where Scheffler has a clarity that McIlroy has actively sought to pursue for himself, Rahm has conflict and confusion. This is the path he has chosen, but does he really want to continue along it. Might it be better for him if LIV Golf does fold; if his lawyers can find a way out of the contract that binds him.

What a sorry mess of circumstances working against one of the most talented and likeable golfers Europe has ever produced. If Rahm does what he is capable of and defies all this to win a Claret Jug, it will rank as by far his most impressive achievement to date.

Whatever the outcome, the day he returns to regular, meaningful competition against the best players in the world cannot come soon enough.

What kind of Birkdale should we expect?

At its most fearsome, Birkdale is one of the most demanding Open Championship venues. We saw that in 2008, when a grand total of four players ended any round under-par for the tournament, all of them prior to a brutal Saturday which featured not a single under-par round. It was the first time in more than 30 years that the leader of the Open was over-par heading into Sunday.

Padraig Harrington's sparkling back-nine was enough to see him win comfortably in three-over, but 10-over was enough for a top-five finish. After Mark O'Meara had won the Open in level-par in 1998, it meant that two Opens had passed without anyone winning the battle with this golf course, at least in terms of breaking par over the course of 72 holes.

Yet in 2017, the turf softer, the wind calmer, Branden Grace shot the first ever round of 62 in major championship history, while Haotong Li added another 63 to sit alongside that of Jodie Mudd in 1991. That's three of the 45 lowest ever scores in men's majors including Grace's historic knock which has since been matched four times elsewhere.

Of course, the weather will determine what's possible. We know after a series of heatwaves that the course will be firm, with rough that is burnt out it places – in fact I'm amazed by how green the fairways appear to be, for now at least. We also know that more warm, dry weather is forecast, so it's over to the wind and that's where we appear to be closer to Grace than Harrington in terms of how difficult things might be.

Right now, Thursday to Sunday is forecast to be about as calm as it gets on the west coast of England. Many will be hoping that changes.

Big names or big prices?

It has been a strange year so far, with Aaron Rai and Wyndham Clark winning majors and the biggest names generally failing to fire. The exception of course was Rory McIlroy, who won the Masters without being at his absolute best and in doing so defied trends which say you don't defend that title. Even the standout moment of the year had a curious edge.

On the PGA Tour, we've had shock winners of Signature Events, like Jacob Bridgeman, Kristoffer Reitan and JT Poston. Collin Morikawa was 66/1 when returning to winning form at Pebble Beach, and Cameron Young was 40/1 in places when he captured the Players Championship. Scottie Scheffler meanwhile is winless since mid-January, McIlroy remains on one title, and most of the stars have flattered to deceive.

Birkdale's roll-of-honour, however, is of the highest order. Even one of the lesser names among the nine who feature on it, Ian Baker-Finch, was a red-hot world number 25 with Open Championship form. Mark O'Meara was the reigning Masters champion who had been third here before. Harrington was the defending champion. Jordan Spieth was winning his third major in three years.

Going further back, Peter Thompson and Tom Watson are arguably the two greatest Open golfers of all-time – both are winners here. The others are Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller and Arnold Palmer. I'm not sure there's a course on the rota with a stronger collective, perhaps bar the Home of Golf itself. Historically, the winner at Birkdale has been an exceptional golfer with an exceptional Open record.

Away from Birkdale, shock Open winners are relatively common. Just in recent years we've had Brian Harman (125/1) and Shane Lowry (66/1), while Darren Clarke was a 150/1 chance. In the first decade of the century, Ben Curtis defied odds of 300/1 and the very next year, Todd Hamilton was around a 500/1 chance. Easy though it is to forget now, Louis Oosthuizen was 200/1-plus when starting the next decade with a runaway win.

And of course, in 2009, Tom Watson almost conjured one of the biggest upsets of all only to lose to Stewart Cink, another 125/1 shot. That's six winners at three-figure prices, seven if you include Zach Johnson, who could be backed at 100/1 in places ahead of the 2015 renewal. This is to say nothing of the various other contenders who were given almost no chance prior to the tournament.

Put all of that together and you have a confusing picture, made more so by the fact that Scottie Scheffler will defend his title on the back of a first missed cut in almost four years. He was by no means the only potential Open candidate who failed to fire in Scotland, either. What gives?

Moments

Sport is about moments, and I don't know as many Open venues have delivered two as memorable as Birkdale this century.

First, Padraig Harrington's second shot to the 17th hole during the final round in 2008 must rank among the best ever struck. The late Bob Torrance said as much and others would agree, given the moment, the downhill lie, the wind, the distance, and the eagle it created. Harrington says the decision not to lay up came down to a simple thought: one good shot and I've won. He conjured a truly great one.

Nine years later, a similarly madcap player produced a series of moments that began not with his genius, but with his flaws.

First, Jordan Spieth flared his drive at the 13th hole so far right that it came to rest among the equipment trucks to the side of the practise range. Twenty minutes passed before he was able to take a penalty drop following lengthy consultation with officials who had not prepared, could not have prepared, for such a scenario. Ten more passed before he signed for a five that could've been six, seven, or eight.

Over the course of the next hour, Spieth would go on to birdie the par-three 14th after almost making an ace, hole a long eagle putt to retake the lead at the 15th, demand that his caddie retrieve the ball from the cup, then birdie the 16th and the 17th, and suddenly he was in total control of the tournament stood on the 18th tee.

There have been some changes to the course since then – where Spieth's drive came to rest there is now a hospitality tent, and the 14th hole has been removed altogether – but if when next the Open comes to Birkdale we're not skipping over the 2026 edition to get to Spieth and then to Harrington, it will have been another thrilling renewal.

Now read our player-by-player guide to the field