Ben Coley's golf betting tips: The Open Championship preview and best bets

• Royal Birkdale set to play firm and fast
• Defending champion arrives after missed cut
• Strong English challenge led by local boy Fleetwood

Golf betting tips: The Open Championship

3pts win Jon Rahm at 28/1 (Betfair Exchange; 25/1 BetVictor)

2pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 30/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

2pts e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 33/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Russell Henley at 40/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

In the summer of 1996, football came home. Or else it nearly did. To the tune of Baddiel & Skinner's instant classic and the rhythm of an effervescent Paul Gascoigne, England made everyone dream. Anyone aged 40 or over now will remember the unbridled joy of seeing the side who hadn't qualified for the last World Cup give the Dutch an almighty thumping. Spain on penalties, Psycho screaming. Everybody dreaming. Does the hope really kill you, or is it in fact hope that keeps you alive?

Thirty years on, the wait for England continues, and every boy and girl who cried when Gareth Southgate missed his penalty should allow themselves to put every ounce of accrued cynicism to one side and dream again. You really are never too old for that. And there may be nothing more hopeful than beginning a preview of the Open Championship with talk of England's World Cup bid, which could end hours before the golf even begins.

The Open, of course, takes place in England this year, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club, where no Englishman has ever won. But we still believe. Sir Nick Faldo, whose final major came in the spring of '96, is the last Englishman to win the Open and that was even further back, in 1992. But we still believe. To every reader from Wales, Scotland and beyond, I apologise. To every reader from England, I ask yourself to just imagine for a second if it really is coming home.

The golf part of the equation depends on a small clutch of potential contenders and one of them in particular carries enormous support into this week. Tommy Fleetwood grew up down the road in Southport, hopping over the fence with his dad to hit balls out of sight. He was here in 1998, though I dare say he remembers as much about Beckham and Batty as he does Mark O'Meara. Fleetwood is most certainly home and virtually everyone wishes him the best.

His game, and that of Matt Fitzpatrick, rates a good fit for the course. From O'Meara forwards to Padraig Harrington and Jordan Spieth and backwards to Ian Baker-Finch and, a long time ago, some of the greatest links golfers in history, course management and a brilliant short-game have been key to Birkdale. Fleetwood's short-game has always been that; Fitzpatrick's has developed to the point where he currently edges his countryman in the PGA Tour's around-the-green statistics, where they sit first and third.

Beyond statistical charts which are built upon data gathered under very different conditions, the importance of links skill and Open form cannot be overstated. O'Meara had already been third at the course and at Royal St George's too, Baker-Finch had been sixth the previous year, Harrington was the defending champion. Peter Thompson and Tom Watson won this 10 times between them and the most recent Birkdale hero, Spieth, came mightily close at St Andrews two years earlier and contended again at Sandwich.

Away from Birkdale, we've been on a run of overseas dominance, four of the last five champions hailing from the USA and the other from Australia. All of Cameron Smith, Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler had some kind of links form and each of them had been 15th or better in Scotland the previous week. Collin Morikawa, the first debut Open winner since 2003 and just the fifth since 1945, is the outlier.

Again, Fitzpatrick (third last week) and Fleetwood (13th) have these bases covered and whether or not England's World Cup hopes are still alive heading into Sunday, there's every chance England's Open prospects are boosted by one or both of these two or indeed TYRRELL HATTON, who I'll take to end the hoodoo on what could be a historic day for sport in this country.

Hatton has looked a potential Open champion ever since he finished fourth in the Scottish Open on his first go. His record in that event, which he's played exclusively since it left its former parkland home, shows a borderline ridiculous nine top-25s in 10 and a best of second place back in 2016, while over in the Dunhill Links it's emphatic: three wins and three runner-up finishes in his last eight appearances.

This has always seemed the major most likely for him and after a slow start early on in his career, he stayed on for fifth at Troon. Three years later, some wrist injury issues having held him back, he started and finished well for sixth place at Portrush, and in five subsequent renewals he has three top-20s. Last year's ought to have been better, too: he began the final round back in Northern Ireland in fourth place.

Conditions there won't necessarily have been ideal and a firmer, faster version of the game really ought to be. Hatton is accurate, his approach play is arrow-straight and his distance control has always been a strength. Then there's his short-game, which is among the very best in this field when he's firing. We saw evidence of that last week when he defied a nightmare, triple-bogey first hole to climb to 17th at The Renaissance.

It was a slow start which hurt him when seventh in the US Open last month, too. Selected at a similar price, Hatton was 87th after day one but carded rounds of 68, 72, 67 subsequently, which represented some of the best golf in the field. That was despite a slightly unfortunate bogey at the 18th hole and came on the back of his first win since January 2025, having produced a commanding display at Valderrama in May.

While a very different golf course in many ways, Valderrama demands precision off the tee and on approach, it isn't much about the driver, and a good short-game goes a long way. Those are all characteristics it shares with an Open Championship at Birkdale and Hatton, a Liverpool fan remember, will be relishing the prospect of a return to the north-west of England.

Hatton did miss the cut in 2017 but he missed the cut in all four majors that year. Almost a decade on, he has three top-10s in his last five, trading favourite for last summer's US Open before a bogey-bogey finish. I felt he handled himself very well there and while no doubt there will be the odd moment of extreme self-criticism, perhaps a finger or two pointed at the course, he has what it takes to become a major champion.

Hatton was among my selections at 28/1 last year, when Scottie Scheffler was at his imperious best. We're getting a slightly bigger price despite a much more recent victory and that's probably because of the way he played here nine years ago, which to my mind is irrelevant. Plus, Jordan Spieth compared Birkdale to Portrush so Hatton having played well there goes down as another small positive.

He's out early on Thursday morning alongside Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau and I'll take Hatton to outshine his superstar playing partners and become a major champion soon after also becoming a dad. It might not quite be the Fleetwood story, but at twice the odds it's a likeable, good-value alternative.

There's a similar case for ROBERT MACINTYRE and when his iron play has fired this year, he's always been a factor. That it's only happened six times is in itself a worry but the Scot excelled on home soil last week and form figures of 4-4-2-15-10-3 whenever he's produced positive strokes-gained approach numbers tell you how solid the rest of his game has been.

Solid would neatly describe both his Open record and his current form and while MC-MC-39 represents a poor body of work in the majors so far this year, he was close to the leaders for a time at Shinnecock last month and the best is yet to come.

MacIntyre is of course a Scottish Open and Dunhill Links champion with stacks of links form and experience and being back so close to home is another definite plus. This was always going to be a challenging year for him, away from his newborn baby for long periods having always suffered from a form of homesickness while out in the US, but his best golf has still been of a very high standard.

We saw more of it last week when he hit the front in the Scottish Open early on Sunday and it looks like an ideal primer for a player who has been runner-up in a major championship and who tends to string good results together when something clicks. That something was his iron play and it's not a coincidence this happened when it became more about shaping the ball and using the ground than flying it high and landing it soft.

The same sort of argument also applies to a short-game that doesn't always look exceptional under the conditions found more regularly on tour, but comes alive under links conditions or when creativity and imagination are required. It's been an average year in that department but some of his best work came at Aronimink and another step forward seems likely here at Birkdale.

MacIntyre is a bit of an obvious one, the kind I tend to shy away from as a rule, but his chances are hard to overlook. He's out particularly early on Thursday and can lay down a marker in the major his game is made for.

The other big-name European I like is JON RAHM, who has just drifted to a price I can't resist and is selected win-only as a consequence. He's a perfectly viable bet with the eight or 10 places too, but I'll sacrifice the place part to have him on-side at maximum odds, in part an acknowledgement that it does feel a somewhat boom-or-bust selection.

For all the questions Rahm does have to answer, I still have a difficult time believing he's anything but third favourite for an Open Championship; the market this time has him fifth or sixth and at the prices quoted as I write, he's fully 10 points bigger than Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick.

Rahm has an excellent pedigree for this, having been second, third, seventh and 11th in the Open, plus won two renewals of the Irish Open, at Portstewart and Lahinch. That's a chunk of world-class links golf and speaks to his ability to craft as well as overpower. Throughout his career, his work around the green has been easy to underestimate and it looks to be right back on track so far this season.

Imperious off the tee as ever, the one nagging doubt would be his approach play right now, but last week's negative figures come solely from a shocking first round in Scotland. Maybe that had something to do with returning to the DP World Tour in an event co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour, at a time when LIV Golf is on the ropes. Maybe it didn't. Either way, one round isn't too difficult to overlook.

It was one round which cost him in the US Open, having for much of Thursday looked like the man to beat, so Rahm's current profile can be spun one of two ways: he's either close to putting everything together, or unable to do so. Hand on heart, I'm not sure and his inconsistency is a concern. But I do strongly believe he's still the third member of a big three and let's not forget he was runner-up in a major just 10 weeks ago.

Four top-10s in his last eight makes for fair reading and returning to that approach play, encouragement can be taken from the fact it's typically been good under Open conditions. In fact it only marginally trails his driving in strokes-gained terms and a record of eight Open cuts made in nine appearances, one of them having come here in 2017, suggests to me that he can be expected to play well once more.

Rahm will relish playing with Fleetwood and having been runner-up down the coast at Hoylake, third at a firm Royal St George's and seventh up at Troon, another good run at a Claret Jug appears perfectly plausible.

Row in with Henley

Viktor Hovland has probably given me the biggest headache as he's a frequent major contender, including for this one in 2022, who won the Travelers recently and closed with a 66 in Scotland. Like MacIntyre, his performances in the Masters, the PGA and the US Open have all been underwhelming and while his short-game numbers are better this year, he's certainly no Harrington.

On balance I can overlook him in favour of RUSSELL HENLEY, who might be more suited to the Open than he is the typically bigger, brawnier tests presented by majors on home soil.

Deadly accurate and an exceptional scrambler, a fixture towards the top of the PGA Tour in both departments, Henley has the right game on paper and he's shown it in practice lately, finishing fifth at Troon and 10th last year at Portrush.

As with Hatton, I don't think conditions wound up in his favour 12 months ago yet he shot 65-68 over the weekend to climb from 34th to make it successive top-10s, a massive step forward on the previous nine attempts he'd made with very little success.

One of the better ones did come here, though. Henley was 10th at halfway in 2017 but left behind on a low-scoring Saturday, from which he responded with a round of 67 to finish mid-pack. He also started well at a firm and fast Carnoustie the following year only to miss the cut, while he's shown flashes at St Andrews in two starts at a far less suitable layout.

The main worry might be that he didn't play in the Scottish Open, but that's always been the case and he's therefore earned the benefit of the doubt. I certainly don't think The Renaissance is a great course for him on paper and the way he did prepare, with rounds of 65 and 64 over the weekend of the Travelers, compares nicely with 2024, when he'd shot 67-65 before mixing it with Xander Schauffele at Troon.

Henley's recent win at Colonial was another boost to a form book which further underlines that a tough, all-round test is what he wants and as far as Birkdale specifically goes, I'll take it as another small positive that his successor at a breezy PGA National a long time ago was none other than Harrington.

Tenuous that may be, but what was the Honda Classic has produced a roll-of-honour packed with Open contenders like Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy, Harrington, Adam Scott, and Rickie Fowler. Fleetwood almost won it, so did Sergio Garcia, and I'm still not quite sure how Shane Lowry has managed not to at some stage.

Henley has for a long time boasted one piece of form which earned him the tag of potential Open contender. Over the last two years, in line with his emergence as a world-class player, he's shown that he can actually go and do it. Here's hoping he can at the very least make it six top-10s in his last 10 majors and a hat-trick in this one.

Continuing the English theme...

For reasons I'm struggling to explain now we're a few hours into the writing of this preview, I began it by talking about football and speculating we could have a fittingly English winner in the golf, but what if it's Harris English instead?

Here's another US southerner who knows all about contending for majors and finally did so in this one last year, when runner-up to Scheffler. That was of course the second time in as many months that he'd been beaten only by the world number one at the very highest level, and English now has five top-10s in majors since 2020 plus another seven top-30s.

He really has become the sort of gritty operator who can adapt to any conditions and I thought these might suit. Portrush probably doesn't answer that question, but English finished an excellent 15th at Muirfield on just his second Open start and that was a dry, firm renewal, where former Birkdale champion O'Meara was in the mix early at the age of 56.

English has a stand-in caddie again this week which is a bit of a negative on the face of it, but it is his putting coach who also caddied at Portrush. He was the best putter in the field that week so it did him no harm whatsoever and he was the one I came closest to siding with at three-figure prices, the snag being that his form has definitely dipped versus last year and especially so in recent months.

Preference is for HIDEKI MATSUYAMA, whose one big weakness these days can often be his inaccuracy with the big stick.

Here that might not be much of an issue at all and the Japanese ace has hinted at being a potential winner of the Claret Jug ever since finishing sixth at the aforementioned Muirfield back in 2013, despite being cruelly hit with a slow-play penalty.

I'll reiterate that O'Meara was second after round one that year and had been runner-up at Muirfield in the 2007 Senior Open, while Harrington's second Open top-five came there five years before his breakthrough at Carnoustie. Tom Watson and Lee Trevino have won at both courses and while any Open form is to be considered positive, only twice since have conditions been as firm as they were in Scotland 13 years ago.

My initial thought was to say that Matsuyama had never built on it, but he's shown flashes including when fifth through 54 holes here in 2017. He's been inside the top 25 all week at Hoylake as well and then there's last year at Portrush, where he opened with a round of 74 but then shot 69, 68, 66 for a share of 16th place.

Five top-20s ultimately represents a good bank of Open form under a variety of conditions and I just can't help but feel he has a big tilt at this title in him at some stage, which makes him quite hard to turn down at a massive price for one of his talent.

We know by know that Matsuyama is a dynamite chipper – one of the very best in the game, I think – and 14th in the Travelers is about as good as he's ever played there, at a course where being a bit wayward off the tee can be problematic. It could be here, too, but clubbing down might be the key to getting Matsuyama back where he belongs and right in the thick of the argument.

Certainly, he's someone whose name would not look out of place on the Claret Jug, and who we'd be able to explain quite simply afterwards: a class act, a past Open contender, a fabulous scrambler, with stacks of experience at the very highest level. With bumper places on offer at about as big a price as you'll ever see him, Matsuyama is well worth chancing.

By now it should be clear that my overriding feeling is that experience and good course management are the key factors rather than any one particular statistical profile. I should also be clear that while the above selections are all due to tee-off early on day one, that sadly does not reflect any perceived advantage – the wind is set to modest all week which, given how firm the course is, may not be a bad thing in truth.

Those who would rather hedge their bets and have late starters in their staking plans have plenty of options including Fitzpatrick and McIlroy, but the two I came closest to siding with were Shane Lowry and Sam Burns. Lowry's iron play is back firing again and his fondness for links golf is obvious. The 2019 Open champion has played well several times since, looking the likely winner at Troon for a while, and this could be where he reignites his Ryder Cup prospects.

Burns meanwhile is twice the price he would be for a US Open after he almost won that again last month. His iron play is also much better now and this deadly putter, who was also in the mix at Troon before a nightmare final round, has become a regular major contender. The price is a reflection of the fact this doesn't look an ideal course fit but sometimes we're all guilty of over-complicating things and he's a top-10 player in the world right now. Whether he's properly prepared is another matter.

Perhaps he'll make a run at the first-round lead if the wind stays down but returning to the theme of this preview, the Open is one major we simply have to view differently, because it is different. This is set to be an extreme version when it comes to the dryness of the turf; already, we're hearing reports of 300-yard five-irons. There are many potential winners of the Claret Jug, but my feeling is the Champion Golfer of the Year will have made a run at this before. And, if that so happens to be Fleetwood, runner-up in 2019, then I'll start the street party.

The first shot of this Open Championship will be hit by an Englishman, local member Matthew Baldwin. If the last shot is too, it will have been a historic week, whether it's Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Hatton or perhaps even Justin Rose who is hitting it. Sport, eh?

Posted at 08:00 BST on 14/07/26

More Open content

• Matt Cooper's Open diary
• Who creates chances in majors?
• Player-by-player guide to the field
• Royal Birkdale talking points

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